Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC states best cape shear overlap persists in west t Tennessee and west Kentucky region

 

[Maxis_s]

Oh .... Well... Are we shooting for two straight high risk days LUL

Upgrading from a D2 slight to a D1 high would be quite the uptrend.
But jokes aside, probably not. Warm sector is too narrow it seems, but a few strong tornadoes are possible.

 

[cg9450]

Near Pilot Grove Missouri looks very concerning

Yeah, that a CC drop.

 

[RollTide18]

Not in any threat here in south Alabama but legit feels like mid-summer this morning, just straight up soupy air.

 

[Kds86z]

We are in phase 3 of the MJO as well as having a TNI over 2. My bets is this event verifies unfortunately

That means less Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential or something @Bulkshear ?

 

[klouzek7079]

Mother Nature not liking Missouri this year..

 

[SilentShadow87]

I might not have personally pulled the trigger on a high risk, but in all honesty it doesn't really matter that much. Public weather outlooks, and usually PDS watches, are issued for both moderate and high risk days, so when it comes to public awareness it's basically just splitting hairs.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Bulkshear]

That means less Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency potential or something @Bulkshear ?

Exactly! This could also be part of the reason the SPC is being very cautious about expanding that risk area eastward

 

[172556]

Upgrading from a D2 slight to a D1 high would be quite the uptrend.
But jokes aside, probably not. Warm sector is too narrow it seems, but a few strong tornadoes are possible.

I believe this has happened once before, anyone know for certain?

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

From Nevada earlier:

 

[UncleJuJu98]

@WesL stay safe your neck of the woods has dangerous weather today!

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I have concerns over cell interactions, among other things, which is one of the reasons I was hesitant about upgrading to MDT a couple of days ago. I think the MDT is justified now and would've left it at that. Let the day shift upgrade as questions are answered. Certainly there is major potential and the LZK sounding shows that. We could easily see multiple tornadic supercells produce significant and long tracked tornado families. Will be a long day of watching the show out west.

 

[Kds86z]

Exactly! This could also be part of the reason the SPC is being very cautious about expanding that risk area eastward

Maybe they got that feeling? Idk

 

[172556]

From Nevada earlier:
View attachment 38389

Me, only now having my coffee, reading this and thinking it's about the state.

 

[Kds86z]

Maybe they got that feeling? Idk

It is a Wednesday …..

 

[wx_guy]

Due to the way this is setting up, I'm going to make a bold prediction: Somewhere, the same county will be under significant tornado warnings multiple times today/tonight, and maybe even tomorrow.

 

[Ledian]

Near Greenfield could be touching down shortly...and it's still just the morning round.

 

[Kds86z]

Near Greenfield could be touching down shortly...and it's still just the morning round.

Yeah this is interesting tracking strong tornado’s at times already.. and

 

[Maxis_s]

The end is never the end...
CSU-MLP forecasts for Day 2, Day 3 and Day 4.