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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

ColdFront said:
They’re the experts here, but It just seems like there are soo many question marks still for a high risk.

I’m just wondering if Broyles wasn’t on shift, and if it was someone else with Leitman, if they would have kept the moderate and not went high.

The 12Z HRRR is hammering just a massive squall line and if that was verbatim….
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it’s more about ceiling than question marks. you’re always going to have mesoscale details that can be a fly in the ointment, but it doesn’t matter whether that’s 5 or 15 variables on the table.

if the event has catastrophic potential, the categorical risk must convey that.

likelihood is secondary.
 
Bulkshear said:
I could be dead wrong, but I think they’re really gonna need to shift the threat a little bit further east as well unfortunately. The reason I say this is because the cap is not very strong out this way so it’s not gonna take much to get these storms initiated.
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I want to disagree with you because, I sure hope not. I think you and @MichelleH are onto something, though.
 
kcyalater said:
it’s more about ceiling than question marks. you’re always goi by to have mesoscale details that can be a fly in the ointment, but it doesn’t matter whether that’s 5 or 15 variables on the table.

if the event has catastrophic potential, the categorical risk must convey that.

likelihood is secondary.
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Not necessarily true at all. The SPC is very conservative on high risk because they want the public to pay attention when they’re issued. Yesterday had a very high ceiling, but it was conditional, and the SPC held their cards.
 
ColdFront said:
Not necessarily true at all. The SPC is very conservative on high risk because they want the public to pay attention when they’re issued. Yesterday had a very high ceiling, but it was conditional, and the SPC held their cards.
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they were definitely more conservative yesterday and a lot of that probably stemmed from the extremely localized nature of the mesoscale environment.

today’s event covers a LOT of sq mileage.

this is a very concerning/disturbing set up.
 
Disagreements with the high risk issuance aside, today seems like it’s going to be a true “all-day” event, which raises alarm bells to me. Plenty of time for the storms today, whether they end up being discrete or linear, to produce a lot of tornadoes. Especially when considering the absolute behemoth of an areal extent this event covers.
 
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