Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Muwx]

Sure looks like a tornado is on the ground headed for Nevada Mo. not sure why that warning wasn’t upgraded. Fairly big city for that part of the state

 

[UK_EF4]

Very stout cap observed on the 12z Little Rock sounding - this is concerning. Higher levels of CIN, combined with the drier air is more likely to result in the current convective band weakening into a subtle baroclinic zone, as opposed to what the HRRR expects, which is a persistence of the convection and eventual contamination.

The latest radar indicates a fragmentation and general weakening of ongoing convection, with the new stuff which the HRRR tried to model struggling on reflectivity. This so far seems more in line with the NAM, and some of the WRF models. As such, I think confidence is beginning to increase on the potential for dangerous supercells emerging out of the thermal zone in N AR into MO, becoming tornadic into IL/IN/OH/KY/TN/AR.

 

[AJS]

Missouri storm looks to still be on the ground. CC still showing a debris signature.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

oh man, Walker MO might be taking a direct hit. Surprised this isn’t a PDS.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Muwx]

Sounds like fairly substantial damage in Nevada this morning. Storms in western mo mean business

 

[AJS]

View attachment 38382

Very stout cap observed on the 12z Little Rock sounding - this is concerning. Higher levels of CIN, combined with the drier air is more likely to result in the current convective band weakening into a subtle baroclinic zone, as opposed to what the HRRR expects, which is a persistence of the convection and eventual contamination.

The latest radar indicates a fragmentation and general weakening of ongoing convection, with the new stuff which the HRRR tried to model struggling on reflectivity. This so far seems more in line with the NAM, and some of the WRF models. As such, I think confidence is beginning to increase on the potential for dangerous supercells emerging out of the thermal zone in N AR into MO, becoming tornadic into IL/IN/OH/KY/TN/AR.

Jeez. That sounding really shows why the SPC went high for today.

 

[lake.effect]

New outlook expands the high risk to the southwest by about 100 miles

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

BIG increase in the High Risk with latest update….

Edit: Lake Effect beat me to it!

 

[Maxis_s]

Broyles isn't included in this High Risk. Thought that would be interesting to note.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Fantastic write up this morning from Leitman and Gleason. Really explains why, even with many of the caveats discussed here, the expectation that high risk criteria will be met in the risk area is still expected.

 

[klouzek7079]

The 'enchanced' plot is now right on the border of my county in central MO. It looks like some of the storms on HRRR 12z might have some teeth to them.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Fantastic write up this morning from Leitman and Gleason. Really explains why, even with many of the caveats discussed here, the expectation that high risk criteria will be met in the risk area is still expected.

Multiple EF-3+ tornadoes should also occur given the very favorable parameter space forecast, but this
high-end tornado potential may be dependent on a relative lack of
supercell/cluster interactions, which are difficult to pinpoint.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Broyles isn't included in this High Risk. Thought that would be interesting to note.

Yeah, shift change, though it would've been hard to walk back the stronger language from overnight

 

[ColdFront]

They’re the experts here, but It just seems like there are soo many question marks still for a high risk.

I’m just wondering if Broyles wasn’t on shift, and if it was someone else with Leitman, if they would have kept the moderate and not went high.

The 12Z HRRR is hammering just a massive squall line and if that was verbatim….

 

[MichelleH]

View attachment 38383

See, this map shows something I've been concerned with - a tornado threat moving farther south into North Alabama than what things have been showing so far. Most people in North AL would be blindsided because nothing is really expected. Hopefully I'm very wrong and the ridge does its thing keeping storms away.

 

[Bulkshear]

See, this map shows something I've been concerned with - a tornado threat moving farther south into North Alabama than what things have been showing so far. Most people in North AL would be blindsided because nothing is really expected. Hopefully I'm very wrong and the ridge does its thing keeping storms away.

I could be dead wrong, but I think they’re really gonna need to shift the threat a little bit further east as well unfortunately. The reason I say this is because the cap is not very strong out this way so it’s not gonna take much to get these storms initiated.

 

[Maxis_s]

The 12Z HRRR is hammering just a massive squall line and if that was verbatim….

The 12z LZK sounding shows a cap right now which I don't think any of the models were showing at this point which might prevent more messy convection.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Maxis_s]

The 12z LZK sounding shows a cap right now which I don't think any of the models were showing at this point which might prevent more messy convection.

Just doubled checked the 06z HRRR, and it did show a cap but definitely not as much as what we have right now. -150 J/kg CINH forecasted vs. -250 J/kg CINH observed. Will have interesting implications for the rest of the day.