Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

wow. first time since 2021 where 2 highs in 1 year

 

[Kds86z]

Well I definitely didn't see that coming lol

Same..

 

[andyhb]

Temoeratures and dewpoints are notably rising here after dark. This is not normal and a major alarm bell for the severe threat here in the next several hours.

 

[Kds86z]

Can’t say I agree with the upgrade to high… but the SPC knows best.

Strong strong wording..

 

[Kds86z]

Temoeratures and dewpoints are notably rising here after dark. This is not normal and a major alarm bell for the severe threat here in the next several hours.

Yeah Reed Timmer post caught my eye @andyhb

 

[Equus]

Going from a high risk in Memphis two hours down I-22 to a marginal is quite the risk gradient

Broyles with his trusty purple marker out there

 

[UK_EF4]

SPC (rather unexpectedly?) pulled a High Risk for the first Day 1



However, I completely agree with them. I'm not sure I've got time to do a full proper write up today, but this event is synoptically very favorable for a major tornado outbreak.

 

[US_Highway15]

I guess for the Day 1 Outlook, depending on how long the convection sticks around northern IL/IN, I could see them going more northward with the Moderate Risk. However, knowing these setups around here, I expect the convection to stick around long enough to stabilize the atmosphere. My expectations to be honest are fairly low here in Northern Indiana lol

 

[Kds86z]

SPC (rather unexpectedly?) pulled a High Risk for the first Day 1

View attachment 38361

However, I completely agree with them. I'm not sure I've got time to do a full proper write up today, but this event is synoptically very favorable for a major tornado outbreak.

Thanks @UK_EF4 , appreciate your input. I remember your forecast for 3/14 and it was very well done.

 

[Kds86z]

I guess for the Day 1 Outlook, depending on how long the convection sticks around northern IL/IN, I could see them going more northward with the Moderate Risk. However, knowing these setups around here, I expect the convection to stick around long enough to stabilize the atmosphere. My expectations to be honest are fairly low here in Northern Indiana lol

You’re over due @US_Highway15 but I don’t think it’ll be today

 

[US_Highway15]

SPC (rather unexpectedly?) pulled a High Risk for the first Day 1

View attachment 38361

However, I completely agree with them. I'm not sure I've got time to do a full proper write up today, but this event is synoptically very favorable for a major tornado outbreak.

Without a doubt the kinematics are there for a tornado outbreak. The question is what storm mode is initiated, and will there be enough clearing to heavily destabilize the atmosphere...

 

[TH2002]

Oh boy, D1 HIGH... can't wait to wake up tomorrow morning and have 20 new pages to catch up on in this thread lol

 

[tornado examiner]

Wait what.

That was completely unexpected

 

[jiharris0220]

Broyles when he thought about bringing out the pink sharpie.

 

[Brice W]

So uhm. A high risk? From where? When? Why? How? That was certainly not on my bingo card. Whatever they’re seeing must really be catching their eye. Very very dangerous ahead.

 

[andyhb]

Have to think the machine learning products both being very aggressive with 30%+ probabilities for tornadoes factored into that.

 

[tornado examiner]

I’m not sure I buy the high risk given cam trends but…I guess.

 

[Kds86z]

So uhm. A high risk? From where? When? Why? How? That was certainly not on my bingo card. Whatever they’re seeing must really be catching their eye. Very very dangerous ahead.

Hope ya got time to join in and track it @Brice W

 

[US_Highway15]

Have to think the machine learning products both being very aggressive with 30%+ probabilities for tornadoes factored into that.

Sure, but still very surprised, considering with this setup there's fail modes to be found quite easily. However, the ceiling is arguably high risk criteria.

 

[Brice W]

Hope ya got time to join in and track it @Brice W

Oh yeah. I won’t be missing this one because of work. Just a little bit of school and I’m gonna go into my radar hideyhole.