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Same..Well I definitely didn't see that coming lol
Strong strong wording..Can’t say I agree with the upgrade to high… but the SPC knows best.
Thanks @UK_EF4 , appreciate your input. I remember your forecast for 3/14 and it was very well done.SPC (rather unexpectedly?) pulled a High Risk for the first Day 1
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However, I completely agree with them. I'm not sure I've got time to do a full proper write up today, but this event is synoptically very favorable for a major tornado outbreak.
You’re over due @US_Highway15 but I don’t think it’ll be todayI guess for the Day 1 Outlook, depending on how long the convection sticks around northern IL/IN, I could see them going more northward with the Moderate Risk. However, knowing these setups around here, I expect the convection to stick around long enough to stabilize the atmosphere. My expectations to be honest are fairly low here in Northern Indiana lol
Without a doubt the kinematics are there for a tornado outbreak. The question is what storm mode is initiated, and will there be enough clearing to heavily destabilize the atmosphere...SPC (rather unexpectedly?) pulled a High Risk for the first Day 1
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However, I completely agree with them. I'm not sure I've got time to do a full proper write up today, but this event is synoptically very favorable for a major tornado outbreak.
Sure, but still very surprised, considering with this setup there's fail modes to be found quite easily. However, the ceiling is arguably high risk criteria.Have to think the machine learning products both being very aggressive with 30%+ probabilities for tornadoes factored into that.
Oh yeah. I won’t be missing this one because of work. Just a little bit of school and I’m gonna go into my radar hideyhole.Hope ya got time to join in and track it @Brice W