Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

Temoeratures and dewpoints are notably rising here after dark. This is not normal and a major alarm bell for the severe threat here in the next several hours.
 
I guess for the Day 1 Outlook, depending on how long the convection sticks around northern IL/IN, I could see them going more northward with the Moderate Risk. However, knowing these setups around here, I expect the convection to stick around long enough to stabilize the atmosphere. My expectations to be honest are fairly low here in Northern Indiana lol
 
SPC (rather unexpectedly?) pulled a High Risk for the first Day 1

View attachment 38361

However, I completely agree with them. I'm not sure I've got time to do a full proper write up today, but this event is synoptically very favorable for a major tornado outbreak.
Thanks @UK_EF4 , appreciate your input. I remember your forecast for 3/14 and it was very well done.
 
I guess for the Day 1 Outlook, depending on how long the convection sticks around northern IL/IN, I could see them going more northward with the Moderate Risk. However, knowing these setups around here, I expect the convection to stick around long enough to stabilize the atmosphere. My expectations to be honest are fairly low here in Northern Indiana lol
You’re over due @US_Highway15 but I don’t think it’ll be today
 
SPC (rather unexpectedly?) pulled a High Risk for the first Day 1

View attachment 38361

However, I completely agree with them. I'm not sure I've got time to do a full proper write up today, but this event is synoptically very favorable for a major tornado outbreak.
Without a doubt the kinematics are there for a tornado outbreak. The question is what storm mode is initiated, and will there be enough clearing to heavily destabilize the atmosphere...
 
Have to think the machine learning products both being very aggressive with 30%+ probabilities for tornadoes factored into that.
 
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