Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[wx_guy]

STORMNet 3 hour probabilities starting to show up. Still low, but I expect that to shoot up given the parameter space.

 

[AJS]

Some of the soundings in posted in the last couple of hours have been pretty absurd.

 

[US_Highway15]

One of Brandon Copic's guys just came on the radio and said that a special sounding was done in Norman and it has "loaded gun" kinematics.

 

[AJS]

One of Copic's guys just said that a special sounding was done in Norman and it has "loaded gun" kinematics.

 

[AJS]

Been catching up as well, what time should storms start initiating?

 

[Bulkshear]

View attachment 38212

Latest models continue to trend more favorable with the trough ejection tomorrow - stronger, slower speed max closer to the warm sector. I am beginning to get very worried about tomorrow afternoon-evening across a large area. Might have some upgrades in CAM guidance come 00z, though the messiness of convection remains a lingering uncertainty.

You should be concerned. I expect this to be much more widespread/severe than what the SPC currently has laid out. I understand the high pressure can temper things but if the parameters are bad enough ( these are) it can override that issue without any problem. Hence we may have supercells form ahead of the main line instead of this being focused around the line which may be messy.

 

[Muwx]

I know is a bit off topic, but Little Rock just issued a PDS flood watch for much of their forecast area. That has to be one of the few occurrences of such a watch.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The flooding threat is pretty bad the next 4-5 days. High risk for flooding on the day 3 risk.

 

[Tanner]

Watching satellite like a hawk. I believe we have the start of initiation near Clinton, OK.

 

[AJS]

Watching satellite like a hawk. I believe we have the start of initiation near Clinton, OK.

Was just about to point that out. Lots of sporadic cumulus clusters on radar.

 

[US_Highway15]

Watching satellite like a hawk. I believe we have the start of initiation near Clinton, OK.

Was just about to say that. Got showers developing near Clinton:

 

[AJS]

Looks to be pretty accurately timed. Around 4-4:30 was when initiation looked likely.

 

[Jimruns]

 

[AJS]

Seeing some more sporadic clusters around the Clinton, OK area.

 

[Maxis_s]

Possible convection beginning near Cooperton OK as well.

 

[US_Highway15]

Seeing some more sporadic clusters around the Clinton, OK area.

Yep, trying to do something.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

An updraft trying to break through NE of Roosevelt, OK. Its got a little more depth than the Clinton stuff at the moment.

 

[slenker]

Is it possible for strong to violent tornadoes to come out of a 10% hatch? Absolutely. Has it happened before? I’m sure it has. At the same time, does that mean it’s actually likely? Not necessarily, but we shall see.

Rochelle 2015 came out of a 10% hatched iirc.

 

[Maxis_s]

Rochelle 2015 came out of a 10% hatched iirc.

Don't forget about Matador.

 

[US_Highway15]

Latest HRRR of 20z only has showers developing but no thunderstorms. We'll see what happens.