Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

[tornado examiner]

TDS?

Not a tornado

 

[SmokeEater]

MEG advising mesocyclone around 8,000 feet on the Shelby County cell.

 

[Kds86z]

Not a tornado

?

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Some Memphis TV streaming options:

https://wreg.com/live-streaming-sc/

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Those Mississippi cells are about to kick off. And those cells along the Mississippi river.

 

[US_Highway15]

Im so gonna regret this but I've made the decision to blast west to Champaign IL due to ILX's results on their special sounding at 19z.

 

[Clancy]

Betting money the delay on that TOA was discussion about probs, PDS and placement, considering its physical size and questions about storm mode.

 

[wx_guy]

How is TD?

By TD do you mean Dewpoint? It's plenty sufficient.



One metric I like to look at is the 3CAPE combined with the 0-3km Lapse Rates, this is what makes the Violent Tornado Parameter (they get added on to the normal STP formula). 3CAPE of over 100 and plenty high enough Lapse Rates in the area. Yeah, this isn't going to end well.

 

[TornadoFan]

SE Memphis storm.

 

[Kds86z]

By TD do you mean Dewpoint? It's plenty sufficient.



One metric I like to look at is the 3CAPE combined with the 0-3km Lapse Rates, this is what makes the Violent Tornado Parameter (they get added on to the normal STP formula). 3CAPE of over 100 and plenty high enough Lapse Rates in the area. Yeah, this isn't going to end well.


View attachment 38474

Lcls. High temperatures and dewpoint spreads. Storms not dropping yet. @wx_guy

 

[wx_guy]

Here's the 3 hour STORMNet AI probabilities, showing 50-70% chances in some areas. I expect these will rise.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Doesn’t look like any changes to the TOR probs on the 2000 update, but the summary wording was again intensified (intense tornadoes likely vs possible).

 

[TheSuckZone]

By TD do you mean Dewpoint? It's plenty sufficient.



One metric I like to look at is the 3CAPE combined with the 0-3km Lapse Rates, this is what makes the Violent Tornado Parameter (they get added on to the normal STP formula). 3CAPE of over 100 and plenty high enough Lapse Rates in the area. Yeah, this isn't going to end well.


View attachment 38474

Been watching those VTP's steadily rise over the last couple hours

 

[172556]

Storm SE of Steelville, MO is beginning to look nasty, appears it will be in the southern St. Louis suburbs in about an hour.

 

[Brice W]

Storm SE of Steelville, MO is beginning to look nasty, appears it will be in the southern St. Louis suburbs in about an hour.

That storm might be down.

 

[wx_guy]

Speaking of the Memphis area and surrounding area:



Well capable of tornado activity. Let's compare to Significant EF2+ Tornadoes:




Notice the red line (the environment over extreme northern MS) exceeds most averages for EF2+ tornadoes (those are the medians, the black vertical lines in the middle of the red boxes). The ends of the bars (the things that extend out from the red boxes) are called the "whiskers" and go out and delineate what's an outlier or not. So we see that MLCAPE is above what is expected for EF2+ tornadoes. The only two that are "below" average are Helicity (the median is close to 400 for EF2+ tornadoes) and MLLCL is higher than its median of about 900, but only marginally more. Overall, very good environment forming for tornadoes, and I expect it'll only get better.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Maxis_s]

That ain't good.

 

[DanLarsen34]

I think we’re about to see something very significant unfold. We’ve got one discrete cell ahead of the line approaching the St. Louis metro that looks like it’s about to produce a significant, long-tracked tornado.

These cells initiating in the OWS around Memphis, especially the northern most of that cluster, have that look as well.