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Severe WX April 1-2 (overnight) Severe Weather Event

An often overlooked aspect of these boom or not days is the model's grid resolution. It's no secret that models like the HRRR often struggle the most with initiation, which can be make it or break it for events like today. The truth is that even a 3 km resolution is too large for some things, like some updrafts and small-scale events at the start of a storm's life cycle, so the model either averages the entire grid square together, smoothing it all out, or misses those features entirely. This can be fixed by taking a finer resolution, but a 1 km square resolution vs a 3 km square resolution requires 9 times the computations and resources. The model game, I'm finding out very quickly, is a balancing act between getting timely info out there and the resources needed to get finer details resolved. You can't win on both fronts simultaneously in a perfect way.
 
TH2002 said:
Yeah, I just checked Reed's live feed and he's having quite the time.
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mhIQtD.gif
 
wx_guy said:
An often overlooked aspect of these boom or not days is the model's grid resolution. It's no secret that models like the HRRR often struggle the most with initiation, which can be make it or break it for events like today. The truth is that even a 3 km resolution is too large for some things, like some updrafts and small-scale events at the start of a storm's life cycle, so the model either averages the entire grid square together, smoothing it all out, or misses those features entirely. This can be fixed by taking a finer resolution, but a 1 km square resolution vs a 3 km square resolution requires 9 times the computations and resources. The model game, I'm finding out very quickly, is a balancing act between getting timely info out there and the resources needed to get finer details resolved. You can't win on both fronts simultaneously in a perfect way.
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IF I had thought of it (and I had not haha), today would've been a great day to zoom in close on OK and KS and do a 1 km resolution run for 12 hours or so. That might've shown us the resolution of the storm mode and life cycles and such. I think it's too late now, but alas, live and learn.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...Portions of central and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 020045Z - 020245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
with initial discrete storms in central/northwest Texas. It is
unclear if severe coverage will warrant a watch, though trends are
being monitored.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed ahead of the
dryline in central/northwest Texas -- where steep boundary-lapse
rates are intersecting the western edge of the warm/moist sector
(upper 50s/lower 60s F dewpoints). Weak large-scale forcing for
ascent and 40-50 kt of cross-boundary 0-6 km shear (per DYX VWP)
will support discrete supercellular structures, aided by around 2000
J/kg MLCAPE. Initial storms will mainly pose a risk of isolated
large hail and locally severe gusts. However, if these storms can
persist long enough and track eastward into the increasing low-level
shear/SRH, the tornado threat would also increase. The overall
coverage and evolution of storms remains unclear, though trends are
being monitored for a possible watch.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/02/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 32369948 33039928 33319883 33379826 33309783 33079767
32639772 32099822 31319944 31449993 31660001 32369948

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
 
wx_guy said:
IF I had thought of it (and I had not haha), today would've been a great day to zoom in close on OK and KS and do a 1 km resolution run for 12 hours or so. That might've shown us the resolution of the storm mode and life cycles and such. I think it's too late now, but alas, live and learn.
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I would recommend doing that in the future, especially for these more conditional setups such as today's.
 
Been busy the last hour or so dealing with personal issues unfortunately; but how is tomorrow looking as of right now? Looks to be a really heavy downpour event with a lot of flooding likely.
 
wx_guy said:
IF I had thought of it (and I had not haha), today would've been a great day to zoom in close on OK and KS and do a 1 km resolution run for 12 hours or so. That might've shown us the resolution of the storm mode and life cycles and such. I think it's too late now, but alas, live and learn.
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Your computer is probably thanking its lucky stars that you didn't think of that.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
Today is yet another set-up with insane parameters in Oklahoma being mistimed with convective initiation. We’ve been quite fortunate with that with some of these higher-end potential days lately
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Of course, that region can only dodge these chances for so long. I recall that experts warned of the potential for the Oklahoma City metro area to be struck by a violent tornado for a long time prior to the May 3, 1999, tornado outbreak. I'm willing to believe that we could one day see another instance of at least one violent tornado besieging the area sometime in the future--the only real question is when that would happen.
 
wx_guy said:
Tbh, I'm probably greatly shortening its lifespan. But so worth it haha
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Maybe we should consider pitching in to crowdfund getting you a high-performance gaming-worthy rig as a replacement so you can run these models more quickly.:cool:
 
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