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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

Now probably close to Cat 5 intensity
“STY Bavi is the second Category 5 storm in the Western Pacific (WPAC) basin this year and the first to reach Category 5 in July since STY Maria in 2018. So far this year (through July 3), the basin has recorded its highest number of Category 5 storms since 2015.”

Official… how quick was that from 1 to 5?? Jeez..
 

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80mph wind increase (80mph to 160mph) within 6:40am Chst (1:40pm CDT Thursday) to 18 UTC (1pm CDT Friday) would be 23 hours.
 
Pressure at Andersen Air Force Base is down to 972.50mb
 
From @ Atlantic as he is on a hiatus from here but am in touch:

“The two Super Typhoons that have formed so far have been strong and there’s no reason to think future storms down the road that may become super typhoons will have any trouble reaching similar intensities. El Niño is likely in full swing already as indicated by the eastern shift in WPAC storm formation, near the IDL. As far as I have seen, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening into the fall and winter, possibly becoming a super El Niño, which would be the first super El Niño since the 2015-16 event.”
 
From @ Atlantic as he is on a hiatus from here but am in touch:

“The two Super Typhoons that have formed so far have been strong and there’s no reason to think future storms down the road that may become super typhoons will have any trouble reaching similar intensities. El Niño is likely in full swing already as indicated by the eastern shift in WPAC storm formation, near the IDL. As far as I have seen, El Niño is expected to continue strengthening into the fall and winter, possibly becoming a super El Niño, which would be the first super El Niño since the 2015-16 event.”
Yeah, the atmosphere is very much behaving like an El Niño rn.
 
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