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- #1,201
92W has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 33W by the JTWC, and they expect a brief 65 kt (75 mph) typhoon peak.
Next international name in the WPAC is Koto.
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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion
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- Start date
Next international name in the WPAC is Koto.
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- #1,202
Disclaimer: my own words are used just below
————————————————————
…Depression becomes Tropical Storm Koto…the 27th named storm of the season…
————————————————————
JMA has upgraded the JTWC’s Tropical Depression 33W to Tropical Storm Koto.
————————————————————
…Depression becomes Tropical Storm Koto…the 27th named storm of the season…
————————————————————
JMA has upgraded the JTWC’s Tropical Depression 33W to Tropical Storm Koto.
| T2527(Koto) Issued at 2025/11/25 13:20 UTC Analysis at 11/25 12 UTC Grade TS Scale - Intensity - Center position N11°00′ (11.0°) E120°10′ (120.2°) Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt) Central pressure 998 hPa Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt) Radius of 30-kt wind area 280 km (150 NM) |
- Thread starter
- #1,203
Due to data issues with the ATCF recently, I apparently missed the issuance of the TCFA on Invest 95B in the Bay of Bengal, but it is now Tropical Cyclone 04B, which has formed in an unusual location of the Bay of Bengal.
TCs don’t typically form in the area of the Bay of Bengal where that L is located.
TCs don’t typically form in the area of the Bay of Bengal where that L is located.
- Thread starter
- #1,204
Invest 96B has been noted to the SW of Sri Lanka and it could also become a formidable TC as it remains near the coasts of Sri Lanka and India and moves into the Bay of Bengal, where it could interact with the approaching TC 04B in the near future.
ABIO10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/250600Z-251800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.5N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 250230Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95B. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.6N 77.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 77.8E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM WEST
OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI
LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.(B).1 TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/250600Z-251800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241951ZNOV2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT AND REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.5N 99.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 250230Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 30 KNOTS
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 95B. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
6.6N 77.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 77.8E, APPROXIMATELY 133 NM WEST
OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED AT THE WESTERN END OF A TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARDS TO ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION EAST OF SRI
LANKA. A 242228Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT LLCC, WHILE A
241812Z OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS SURROUNDING THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 10-15 KNOTS, DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PORTRAYING 96B TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER OR
JUST SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA, THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 24NOV25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 242100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.(B).1 TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #1,206
And now the JTWC is taking note of how unusual 04B is:
| THE TRACK AFTER TAU 12 BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THE LLCC WILL INTERACT WITH THE RUGGED AND HIGH TERRAIN FEATURES OF NORTHERN SUMATRA AND THE FACT THAT THIS REGION HAS NEVER HAD A DIRECT TC IMPACT BEFORE, SO THERE IS NO DATA TO SUPPORT HOW THE VORTEX WILL MOVE AS IT CROSSES THE TERRAIN FEATURES. |
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- #1,207
Whoops, I didn’t mean to reference the 96B post, I meant to reference the post about 04B forming.
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- #1,208
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- #1,209
The North Indian Ocean is the smallest officially recognized tropical cyclone basin in the world, and it is uncommon to see concurrently active tropical cyclones on either side of India, let alone two tropical cyclones concurrently in one sub-basin or the other.
The sub-basins here are the Arabian Sea west of India and the Bay of Bengal east of India.
While Cyclonic Storm Senyar is active in the southeast Bay of Bengal, Invest 96B in southwest Bay of Bengal (yes, Senyar and 96B are in the same sub-basin region right now) has been upgraded to High chance by the JTWC.
96B and Senyar in the same sun-basin in the photo below:
96B on the left, Senyar on the right
The sub-basins here are the Arabian Sea west of India and the Bay of Bengal east of India.
While Cyclonic Storm Senyar is active in the southeast Bay of Bengal, Invest 96B in southwest Bay of Bengal (yes, Senyar and 96B are in the same sub-basin region right now) has been upgraded to High chance by the JTWC.
WTIO21 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 81.7E TO 9.1N 81.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 81.5E. IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 81.4E 100 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 261611Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS APPEARING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING
AGAINST THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AROUND THE COASTLINE OF SRI LANKA, GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PRESENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEPICTING 96B TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK OVER
SRI LANKA AND TOWARDS THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272100Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 81.7E TO 9.1N 81.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.3N 81.5E. IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 81.4E 100 NM EAST SOUTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
AND A 261611Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICT ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS APPEARING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING
AGAINST THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AROUND THE COASTLINE OF SRI LANKA, GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR PRESENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEPICTING 96B TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK OVER
SRI LANKA AND TOWARDS THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272100Z.//
NNNN
96B and Senyar in the same sun-basin in the photo below:
96B on the left, Senyar on the right
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- #1,210
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- #1,211
Twin storms in the Bay of Bengal now, as 96B has become Cyclonic Storm 05B.
However, the JTWC has issued its final warning on Senyar as it degrades from land interaction and an impending landfall on the west coast of Malaysia.
Newly-formed 05B on the left, and the dissipating Senyar on the right
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- #1,212
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- #1,213
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Senyar’s crossover is officially recognized by the JTWC, with Senyar’s NIO designation of 04B now being reclassified as WPAC’s Tropical Depression 34W.
It is now Tropical Depression 34W in South China Sea.
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- #1,216
The Prognostic Reasoning on 04B/34W Senyar:
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: WHILE THIS WARNING IS A REGENERATION
OF TC 04B, BEING THE FIRST WARNING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THIS IS
THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TD 34W AND ESTABLISHES
THE REGENERATED FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 34W IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL STEERING PATTERN FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF ANYTHING, THE SYSTEM WILL SPEED UP AS A NER BUILDS OVER NORTHERN
BORNEO AND STRENGTHENS THE STEERING GRADIENT. IN THE NEAR-TERM,
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TREND, THOUGH THE VORTEX WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THUS WILL BE UNABLE TO SUPPORT OR
MAINTAIN MORE THAN A TRIVIAL AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 24,
AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON TS 33W, NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM TS 33W IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SHARPLY, WHICH ALONG WITH SOME DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM, WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 48,
POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENS UP TO A
MODEST 120NM BY TAU 36, AS THE NAVGEM AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRY
TO PULL THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, WHILE THE GFS, GEFS
MEAN AND REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE CONTINUE THE TRACK
STRAIGHT NORTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR, BUT
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING
AFTER TAU 24.
OF TC 04B, BEING THE FIRST WARNING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THIS IS
THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TD 34W AND ESTABLISHES
THE REGENERATED FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 34W IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
MONSOONAL FLOW. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE
OVERALL STEERING PATTERN FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF ANYTHING, THE SYSTEM WILL SPEED UP AS A NER BUILDS OVER NORTHERN
BORNEO AND STRENGTHENS THE STEERING GRADIENT. IN THE NEAR-TERM,
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TREND, THOUGH THE VORTEX WILL REMAIN VERY SHALLOW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THUS WILL BE UNABLE TO SUPPORT OR
MAINTAIN MORE THAN A TRIVIAL AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 24,
AS THE SYSTEM CLOSES IN ON TS 33W, NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM TS 33W IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SHARPLY, WHICH ALONG WITH SOME DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM, WILL BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 48,
POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OPENS UP TO A
MODEST 120NM BY TAU 36, AS THE NAVGEM AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN TRY
TO PULL THE SYSTEM ONTO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, WHILE THE GFS, GEFS
MEAN AND REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE CONTINUE THE TRACK
STRAIGHT NORTHEASTWARD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR, BUT
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING
AFTER TAU 24.
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- #1,217
The amazingly historic journey of Senyar is nearing its end.
“The amazing and unprecedented saga of 34W, previously known as Senyar, is rapidly coming to an end. Satellite imagery shows a disorganized structure, with a partially exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) displaced east of linear, sheared convection.”
- JTWC’s 13th and final warning on 04B/34W Senyar
“The amazing and unprecedented saga of 34W, previously known as Senyar, is rapidly coming to an end. Satellite imagery shows a disorganized structure, with a partially exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) displaced east of linear, sheared convection.”
- JTWC’s 13th and final warning on 04B/34W Senyar
Kds86z
Member
Thanks you too!And as a little off-topic side note, Happy Thanksgiving and wishing the best food and family time to everyone
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- #1,219
Today is the last day of the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific Hurricane Seasons.
The Eastern and Central Pacific combined produced 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes in the most active season since 2018, and the first season since 2018 to achieve 20+ named storms. This season saw the earliest landfalling MH in Mexico on record, which concurrently was the easternmost landfalling MH on record in the Eastern Pacific.
—————————————————-
The Atlantic produced 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes in its least active season since 2015 in named storms and hurricanes. Despite the below average number of named storms and hurricanes, the major hurricanes and the ACE total were above average. In a stunning turn of events, every one of the five hurricanes that formed this season peaked as a Category 2 or stronger and 4 out of the 5 hurricanes were major hurricanes. 3 out of the 4 major hurricanes were Category 5s, the second highest total amount of C5s in a season, just behind 2005’s 4 C5s. All four of the season’s major hurricanes were C4+, which is also interesting.
The Eastern and Central Pacific combined produced 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes in the most active season since 2018, and the first season since 2018 to achieve 20+ named storms. This season saw the earliest landfalling MH in Mexico on record, which concurrently was the easternmost landfalling MH on record in the Eastern Pacific.
—————————————————-
The Atlantic produced 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes in its least active season since 2015 in named storms and hurricanes. Despite the below average number of named storms and hurricanes, the major hurricanes and the ACE total were above average. In a stunning turn of events, every one of the five hurricanes that formed this season peaked as a Category 2 or stronger and 4 out of the 5 hurricanes were major hurricanes. 3 out of the 4 major hurricanes were Category 5s, the second highest total amount of C5s in a season, just behind 2005’s 4 C5s. All four of the season’s major hurricanes were C4+, which is also interesting.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
And so likely the only chance of a NIO -> WPac system becoming a TS in both basins in my lifetime is squandered. Thanks a lot, Koto.
On a grim note, Senyar has left at least 682 dead.
EDIT: 2 things
1. I'm pretty sure that JMA would have named it Nokaen had it made it back to TS as the circulation had degenerated over Malaysia before reforming in the WPac, thus this would've been Cyclonic Storm Senyar-Nokaen
2. Death toll is now no less than 775
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