- Thread starter
- #641
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
- Thread starter
- #642
Lake Martin EF4
Member
I guarantee you at least one of those two other systems is eyeing 91W up for dinner like that bird eyed up Hopper in the climax of A Bug's Life. Nom nom mode will presumably occur shortly.
- Thread starter
- #644
Tropical Storm 06W was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nari by the JMA. Invest 92W abruptly formed overnight. The JTWC title calls it Tropical Depression 07W but the Prognostic discussion calls it a Subtropical Depression.
In addition, we now have Invest 98S in the Southern Indian Ocean (Also called 90S too, like it should be because it is now the 2025-26 preseason down there)
Invest 94W continues to have literally no model support and is doing nothing right now.
In addition, we now have Invest 98S in the Southern Indian Ocean (Also called 90S too, like it should be because it is now the 2025-26 preseason down there)
Invest 94W continues to have literally no model support and is doing nothing right now.
- Thread starter
- #645
Tropical (or Subtropical) Depression 07W prognostic reasoning from the JTWC;
WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 30.8N 123.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 340 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
ELONGATED AND BROAD SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CONVECTION PULSING
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE PRESENT OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON 121529Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT SCATTEROMETRY HIGHLIGHTING THE
IRREGULARLY SHAPED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
25-30KTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION (SD) 07W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A LONGWAVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN, AND CURVE
NORTHWARD FROM TAU 24-36. BETWEEN TAU 36-72, THE SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS ANTICIPATED TO CURVE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE CONFIDENCE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ASSESSED AS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. BAROCLINIC FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO
CAUSE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS WITHIN THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU
36-72 DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AND HAS A LARGE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LIES WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTLYING TO THE EAST WITH A NEARLY NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPREAD BETWEEN GEFS AND ECENS, WITH
JUST UNDER HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH MODELS LYING SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD
BETWEEN A PEAK OF 35-40KTS, HOWEVER A TRACK OVER WATER MAY ALLOW
FOR STRONGER INTENSIFICATION RATHER THAN THE PEAK REPRESENTED IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER LAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 30.8N 123.6E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 340 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
ELONGATED AND BROAD SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CONVECTION PULSING
POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE PRESENT OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON 121529Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT SCATTEROMETRY HIGHLIGHTING THE
IRREGULARLY SHAPED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
25-30KTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.0 - 25 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION (SD) 07W IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A LONGWAVE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN, AND CURVE
NORTHWARD FROM TAU 24-36. BETWEEN TAU 36-72, THE SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS ANTICIPATED TO CURVE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE CONFIDENCE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ASSESSED AS LOW AT THIS TIME
AS THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. BAROCLINIC FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO
CAUSE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 40KTS WITHIN THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BETWEEN TAU
36-72 DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AND HAS A LARGE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LIES WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, WITH THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE OUTLYING TO THE EAST WITH A NEARLY NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SPREAD BETWEEN GEFS AND ECENS, WITH
JUST UNDER HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF BOTH MODELS LYING SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD
BETWEEN A PEAK OF 35-40KTS, HOWEVER A TRACK OVER WATER MAY ALLOW
FOR STRONGER INTENSIFICATION RATHER THAN THE PEAK REPRESENTED IN
THE CURRENT FORECAST OVER LAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
NNNN
WTPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110721ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 30.8N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 33.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 35.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 37.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 39.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 124.1E.
12JUL25. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110730).//
NNNN
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110721ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 30.8N 123.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 30.8N 123.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 33.2N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 35.8N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 37.4N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 39.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 31.0N 124.1E.
12JUL25. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (NARI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110730).//
NNNN
Kds86z
Member
KakashiHatake2000
Member
gotcha thanks kds86z
- Thread starter
- #648
Subtropical Depression 07W decided to ditch the possible South Korea landfall in favor of going far SE to landfall in eastern Japan.
Tropical Storm Nari has intensified to 50 kts now. A little more intensification is possible before it begins extratropical transition in a day or two.
The models are at war over the Northeastern Gulf area of interest marked as a 0/20 disturbance right now by the NHC. The next name in Atlantic is Dexter.
Invest 98S was briefly designated in the Southern Indian Ocean before Invest 90S was established next to it by the JTWC. There still remains the possibility of this disturbance becoming the first TC of the 2025-26 SHEM season. Meteo-France is watching this system, but BoM isn’t… yet. The next name in the Australian Region is Fina, and the first name in the Southwestern Indian Ocean is Awo.
The Western Pacific is expected to establish a very large monsoon trough in about a week. This trough could potentially produce one or more storms as it establishes itself across the basin. The next name is Wipha in the Western Pacific. The next Philippine name is Crising.
Tropical Storm Nari has intensified to 50 kts now. A little more intensification is possible before it begins extratropical transition in a day or two.
The models are at war over the Northeastern Gulf area of interest marked as a 0/20 disturbance right now by the NHC. The next name in Atlantic is Dexter.
Invest 98S was briefly designated in the Southern Indian Ocean before Invest 90S was established next to it by the JTWC. There still remains the possibility of this disturbance becoming the first TC of the 2025-26 SHEM season. Meteo-France is watching this system, but BoM isn’t… yet. The next name in the Australian Region is Fina, and the first name in the Southwestern Indian Ocean is Awo.
The Western Pacific is expected to establish a very large monsoon trough in about a week. This trough could potentially produce one or more storms as it establishes itself across the basin. The next name is Wipha in the Western Pacific. The next Philippine name is Crising.
- Thread starter
- #650
You see this tropical wave circled in blue? That wave spun up Invest 96E over a week ago which had had good model support, but then that support fell hard and 96E failed to develop into a tropical cyclone. The tropical wave is still active and approaching the 140W border that separates the EPAC from the CPAC. Once it crosses 140, the wave symbol will vanish.
This tropical wave has been active since before Tropical Storm Andrea formed! It was noted just off of the coast of Africa on June 23rd. That’s 20 days now. Most of the wave’s convection is with the ITCZ and the monsoon trough to the immediate south of it right now.
This tropical wave has been active since before Tropical Storm Andrea formed! It was noted just off of the coast of Africa on June 23rd. That’s 20 days now. Most of the wave’s convection is with the ITCZ and the monsoon trough to the immediate south of it right now.
- Thread starter
- #652
Usually yes. Tropical waves make it to the Center Pacific Ocean every year. But note not every wave does so.
- Thread starter
- #654
Needless to say, the ICON model runs have been consistent and concerning with the 0/20 AoI. The 12Z run got down to 967 mb;
Here’s 03Z on Saturday, July 19th from the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z runs from today:
00Z;
06Z;
12Z;
And most recently, 18Z;
The GFS and EURO models don’t really do much with the disturbance.
To everyone out there, please keep your eye and ears out and keep watching. This could happen to become our next U.S. threat and the first Gulf coast threat of the year if it ends up forming.
Here’s 03Z on Saturday, July 19th from the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z runs from today:
00Z;
06Z;
12Z;
And most recently, 18Z;
The GFS and EURO models don’t really do much with the disturbance.
To everyone out there, please keep your eye and ears out and keep watching. This could happen to become our next U.S. threat and the first Gulf coast threat of the year if it ends up forming.
Attachments
Lake Martin EF4
Member
You really redacted those names like an SCP Foundation article lol
Always interesting to see when one model predicts a borderline major hurricane landfall for Dexter (ICON) while the others predict only some potential for a named storm in the first place (GFS, Euro). Regardless, it’s now worth keeping an eye on this one for sure.
- Thread starter
- #658
I’m not actually good at remembering the Western Pacific names, as they are all over the place in letters. I can remember right now at least that the next names after Wipha are: Francisco, Co-may, Krosa and Bailu. I can’t really remember any further than Bailu unless I look it up online.
IdaliaHelene
Member
- Messages
- 475
- Reaction score
- 609
- Location
- Keaton Beach
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
- ARRL Member
- Thread starter
- #660
We have Invest 95W in the WPAC. It now takes the crown for the fastest noting with low chance to a high chance Invest. It was declared around 8PM yesterday or 2AM this morning and it was a medium chance at 10am est. it is now a high chance Invest which if it formed, looks like it could be a Nari redux-style track.
WTPN21 PGTW 141930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.9N 139.5E TO 39.7N 141.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26.0N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CORE CONVECTION BUILT OVER THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A 141048Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A SHARP CUSP
FEATURE AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ISOLATED ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THIS
SMALL SYSTEM IS FORMING WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF ELEVATED (20-30
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY WINDS TRAILING IN THE WAKE OF 06W. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM FAILING TO CLOSE OFF INTO A DEFINED CIRCULATION AS IT QUICKLY
TRACKS TO THE NORTH, BUT WITH ENHANCED WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TRACK GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151930Z.
//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.9N 139.5E TO 39.7N 141.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.2N 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
26.0N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CORE CONVECTION BUILT OVER THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A 141048Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A SHARP CUSP
FEATURE AND 25-30 KNOT WINDS ISOLATED ALONG THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THIS
SMALL SYSTEM IS FORMING WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF ELEVATED (20-30
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY WINDS TRAILING IN THE WAKE OF 06W. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THE
SYSTEM FAILING TO CLOSE OFF INTO A DEFINED CIRCULATION AS IT QUICKLY
TRACKS TO THE NORTH, BUT WITH ENHANCED WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TRACK GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151930Z.
//
NNNN