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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Invest 98W in the Western Pacific has been named Bising by PAGASA (Philippines)

Invest 90W is now Tropical Storm Mun, which is tracing a northward “S”-shaped track due to a reverse-oriented trough.

The Eastern Pacific AOI behind Flossie is now 40/80 on chances. For this AOI to become the earliest seventh tropical depression or tropical storm it would need to form between now and July 6th (the earliest “G” named storm in the Eastern Pacific is July 7th)


The disturbance over Florida is now a 30/60 shot at development offshore of the U.S. East Coast.
 
Forgot to mention that the JTWC has issued a TCFA on Invest 98W (Philippine name Bising)
IMG_1558.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 031900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 155 NM RADIUS OF 19.4N 119.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.3N 123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VIGAN, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER AND AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE
LLCC. PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES AT 031305Z AND 031356Z OUTLINE THE OUTERMOST
EDGES OF THE CIRCULATION, HOWEVER NOT THE CIRCULATION ITSELF WHICH
WAS IN THE NADIR GAP, AND INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND
BOTH THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 VWS),
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS GFS, ECMWF AND CMC AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD, WHILE TAKING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
ENSEMBLES DISAGREE ON TRACK AS WELL, ENCENS MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AND
GEFS MOVES MORE NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER THEY DO AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT
TIMELINE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041900Z.//
NNNN
 
Flossie is apparently still 70 kts as of 00Z
Troll Dancing GIF

View attachment 44755
View attachment 44756
View attachment 44757
Flossing Creative Agency GIF by Truth Collective
 
Flossie is now a hurricane!

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025


...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025
The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this
evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past
hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in
at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively.
The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z
and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these
data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity
has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making
Flossie a hurricane.

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in
the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very
close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a
blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during
the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C,
abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In
fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60%
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast
through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours
as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then
follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins
to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a
post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at
96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid
intensification.



KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.


2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight
through Tuesday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


$$
Forecaster Jelsema



They are not calling for Flossie to peak at 110 mph, but I personally think it is a possibility that Flossie could become major hurricane.
she did
flossie mogs to mumbai
 
Prior to 1977, they used all-female names in lists. Due to backlash over that, they implemented a male-to-female set of lists beginning in 1978 in the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic in 1979. The male to female alternating name are what we have used to this day.
from bob and David to deshawn and humberto
 
Newly-upgraded Typhoon Danas looks like it is undergoing rapid intensification (RI) right now. The JTWC currently has the initial intensity at 65 kts, barely a typhoon.

Mun is headed out to sea (OTS) and it is likely to turn extratropical within the next few days.

Invest 96E’s model support has backed off on a longtracker reaching the Central Pacific. Invest 96E is currently 60/80 ob chances.

We have had yet ANOTHER AOI marked in the Eastern Pacific, the 8th area of interest this season there. The AoI is currently 0/20 on chances.
 
Newly-upgraded Typhoon Danas looks like it is undergoing rapid intensification (RI) right now. The JTWC currently has the initial intensity at 65 kts, barely a typhoon.

Mun is headed out to sea (OTS) and it is likely to turn extratropical within the next few days.

Invest 96E’s model support has backed off on a longtracker reaching the Central Pacific. Invest 96E is currently 60/80 ob chances.

We have had yet ANOTHER AOI marked in the Eastern Pacific, the 8th area of interest this season there. The AoI is currently 0/20 on chances.
Here’s Danas:
IMG_1729.png
IMG_1728.png
The main cyclone without that rainband on the eastern side of the storm reminds me of Otis (by satellite imagery, not the radar one)
 
Assuming Typhoon Danas doesn't reach major status, we are currently at 186 consecutive days without a major typhoon.

In that regard, here's the top 3 longest consecutive days until the first major typhoon:
1. 1974: 264 days
2. 2010: 244 days
3. 2024: 204 days

With the formation of Typhoon Danas, this marks only the 2nd typhoon of the 2025 season.

Most recent years that have had two or less typhoons by July 6th are:
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017

I just realized upon doing this we have gone 7 consecutive years (including 2025) where this has happened.

West PAC ACE is just 11.9 (average by now is 43.5)
 
May I present, The Hawaii obliteratior:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_cpac_fh330-366.gif
Hawaii shreds the remnants of what was previously a modeled EPAC system.
 
We are in July now. Which means thst will he Southern Hemisphere is now in the preseason of 2025-26. A Southern Hemisphere season runs from July 1st to June 30th of the next year. With that being said, models are hinting at a disturbance (GFS already has a weak TC with a minimum pressure on the 12Z run getting down to 996 mb) around July 15th with the disturbance showing up around 80 to 85 degrees E, inside of the Southwest Indian Ocean boundary.

The first name on this season’s list is Awo.
For other SHEM basins, the names that the AR and SPAC were on before June 30th remain the same next names on the list now (Fina for the Australian Region, and Urmil for the South Pacific)
IMG_2699.png
IMG_2701.png
IMG_2687.png
IMG_2698.jpeg
And here is what Meteo-France (the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center or RSMC of the Southwest Indian Ocean) is saying as of now)
 
@JPWX

The JTWC apparently overrode the ATCF yesterday on Danas, so we have gotten our first official Major Typhoon of the year in the WPAC.


DANAS 250710 1800 22.8N 114.6E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 1200 23.3N 115.2E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 0600 23.5N 115.8E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 0000 24.2N 116.0E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250709 1800 25.1N 116.3E WPAC 15 995
05W DANAS 250709 1200 26.4N 118.2E WPAC 20 995
05W DANAS 250709 0600 26.7N 119.1E WPAC 25 995
05W DANAS 250709 0000 27.0N 119.8E WPAC 30 995
05W DANAS 250708 1800 27.4N 120.4E WPAC 35 986
05W DANAS 250708 1200 27.9N 121.2E WPAC 35 985
05W DANAS 250708 0600 27.9N 122.0E WPAC 35 987
05W DANAS 250708 0000 27.9N 122.4E WPAC 35 988
05W DANAS 250707 1800 27.7N 122.6E WPAC 40 993
05W DANAS 250707 1200 27.0N 122.1E WPAC 40 989
05W DANAS 250707 0600 26.4N 121.4E WPAC 40 992
05W DANAS 250707 0000 25.8N 121.1E WPAC 40 992
05W DANAS 250706 1800 23.8N 120.5E WPAC 70 973
05W DANAS 250706 1200 22.9N 119.6E WPAC 100 950
05W DANAS 250706 0600 22.2N 118.9E WPAC 85 961
05W DANAS 250706 0000 21.6N 118.3E WPAC 70 975
05W DANAS 250705 1800 21.0N 118.0E WPAC 65 977
05W DANAS 250705 1200 20.8N 117.9E WPAC 60 982
05W DANAS 250705 0600 20.5N 117.9E WPAC 55 987
05W DANAS 250705 0000 20.3N 117.7E WPAC 45 992
05W DANAS 250704 1800 20.0N 117.6E WPAC 40 994
05W DANAS 250704 1200 20.1N 117.8E WPAC 35 997
05W DANAS 250704 0600 19.8N 118.3E WPAC 30 1001
05W DANAS 250704 0000 19.7N 118.7E WPAC 25 1001
05W DANAS 250703 1800 20.0N 119.4E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250703 1200 20.2N 120.4E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250703 0600 20.4N 121.8E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250703 0000 19.7N 122.4E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250702 1800 19.0N 123.0E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250702 1200 18.2N 123.1E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250702 0600 17.8N 123.8E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250702 0000 17.4N 124.1E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250701 1800 17.0N 124.2E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250701 1200 16.7N 124.4E WPAC 15 1006
05W DANAS 250701 0600 16.7N 125.7E WPAC 15 1006
05W DANAS 250701 0000 15.9N 126.8E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 1800 15.0N 127.4E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 1200 14.7N 128.5E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 0600 14.7N 130.2E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 0000 15.2N 132.5E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 1800 15.2N 134.1E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 1200 15.0N 134.8E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 0600 15.0N 135.8E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250629 0000 15.1N 136.6E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250628 1800 15.0N 137.4E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250628 1200 14.9N 138.1E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250628 0600 14.6N 138.7E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250628 0000 14.4N 139.5E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250627 1800 13.7N 140.5E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250627 1200 13.3N 141.6E WPAC 15 1007

And the link to it;
 
@JPWX

The JTWC apparently overrode the ATCF yesterday on Danas, so we have gotten our first official Major Typhoon of the year in the WPAC.


DANAS 250710 1800 22.8N 114.6E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 1200 23.3N 115.2E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 0600 23.5N 115.8E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 0000 24.2N 116.0E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250709 1800 25.1N 116.3E WPAC 15 995
05W DANAS 250709 1200 26.4N 118.2E WPAC 20 995
05W DANAS 250709 0600 26.7N 119.1E WPAC 25 995
05W DANAS 250709 0000 27.0N 119.8E WPAC 30 995
05W DANAS 250708 1800 27.4N 120.4E WPAC 35 986
05W DANAS 250708 1200 27.9N 121.2E WPAC 35 985
05W DANAS 250708 0600 27.9N 122.0E WPAC 35 987
05W DANAS 250708 0000 27.9N 122.4E WPAC 35 988
05W DANAS 250707 1800 27.7N 122.6E WPAC 40 993
05W DANAS 250707 1200 27.0N 122.1E WPAC 40 989
05W DANAS 250707 0600 26.4N 121.4E WPAC 40 992
05W DANAS 250707 0000 25.8N 121.1E WPAC 40 992
05W DANAS 250706 1800 23.8N 120.5E WPAC 70 973
05W DANAS 250706 1200 22.9N 119.6E WPAC 100 950
05W DANAS 250706 0600 22.2N 118.9E WPAC 85 961
05W DANAS 250706 0000 21.6N 118.3E WPAC 70 975
05W DANAS 250705 1800 21.0N 118.0E WPAC 65 977
05W DANAS 250705 1200 20.8N 117.9E WPAC 60 982
05W DANAS 250705 0600 20.5N 117.9E WPAC 55 987
05W DANAS 250705 0000 20.3N 117.7E WPAC 45 992
05W DANAS 250704 1800 20.0N 117.6E WPAC 40 994
05W DANAS 250704 1200 20.1N 117.8E WPAC 35 997
05W DANAS 250704 0600 19.8N 118.3E WPAC 30 1001
05W DANAS 250704 0000 19.7N 118.7E WPAC 25 1001
05W DANAS 250703 1800 20.0N 119.4E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250703 1200 20.2N 120.4E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250703 0600 20.4N 121.8E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250703 0000 19.7N 122.4E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250702 1800 19.0N 123.0E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250702 1200 18.2N 123.1E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250702 0600 17.8N 123.8E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250702 0000 17.4N 124.1E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250701 1800 17.0N 124.2E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250701 1200 16.7N 124.4E WPAC 15 1006
05W DANAS 250701 0600 16.7N 125.7E WPAC 15 1006
05W DANAS 250701 0000 15.9N 126.8E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 1800 15.0N 127.4E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 1200 14.7N 128.5E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 0600 14.7N 130.2E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 0000 15.2N 132.5E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 1800 15.2N 134.1E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 1200 15.0N 134.8E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 0600 15.0N 135.8E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250629 0000 15.1N 136.6E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250628 1800 15.0N 137.4E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250628 1200 14.9N 138.1E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250628 0600 14.6N 138.7E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250628 0000 14.4N 139.5E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250627 1800 13.7N 140.5E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250627 1200 13.3N 141.6E WPAC 15 1007

And the link to it;
Danas in now the 13th major cyclone worldwide so far this year.

2023 had 9 major cyclones worldwide at this date.
2023 would go on to become an infamous year with many powerful storms. This year had 30 major cyclones worldwide by the end.

2024 had 5 major cyclones worldwide at the date. 2024 would produce 23 major cyclones overall.
 
@JPWX

The JTWC apparently overrode the ATCF yesterday on Danas, so we have gotten our first official Major Typhoon of the year in the WPAC.


DANAS 250710 1800 22.8N 114.6E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 1200 23.3N 115.2E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 0600 23.5N 115.8E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250710 0000 24.2N 116.0E WPAC 15 996
05W DANAS 250709 1800 25.1N 116.3E WPAC 15 995
05W DANAS 250709 1200 26.4N 118.2E WPAC 20 995
05W DANAS 250709 0600 26.7N 119.1E WPAC 25 995
05W DANAS 250709 0000 27.0N 119.8E WPAC 30 995
05W DANAS 250708 1800 27.4N 120.4E WPAC 35 986
05W DANAS 250708 1200 27.9N 121.2E WPAC 35 985
05W DANAS 250708 0600 27.9N 122.0E WPAC 35 987
05W DANAS 250708 0000 27.9N 122.4E WPAC 35 988
05W DANAS 250707 1800 27.7N 122.6E WPAC 40 993
05W DANAS 250707 1200 27.0N 122.1E WPAC 40 989
05W DANAS 250707 0600 26.4N 121.4E WPAC 40 992
05W DANAS 250707 0000 25.8N 121.1E WPAC 40 992
05W DANAS 250706 1800 23.8N 120.5E WPAC 70 973
05W DANAS 250706 1200 22.9N 119.6E WPAC 100 950
05W DANAS 250706 0600 22.2N 118.9E WPAC 85 961
05W DANAS 250706 0000 21.6N 118.3E WPAC 70 975
05W DANAS 250705 1800 21.0N 118.0E WPAC 65 977
05W DANAS 250705 1200 20.8N 117.9E WPAC 60 982
05W DANAS 250705 0600 20.5N 117.9E WPAC 55 987
05W DANAS 250705 0000 20.3N 117.7E WPAC 45 992
05W DANAS 250704 1800 20.0N 117.6E WPAC 40 994
05W DANAS 250704 1200 20.1N 117.8E WPAC 35 997
05W DANAS 250704 0600 19.8N 118.3E WPAC 30 1001
05W DANAS 250704 0000 19.7N 118.7E WPAC 25 1001
05W DANAS 250703 1800 20.0N 119.4E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250703 1200 20.2N 120.4E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250703 0600 20.4N 121.8E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250703 0000 19.7N 122.4E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250702 1800 19.0N 123.0E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250702 1200 18.2N 123.1E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250702 0600 17.8N 123.8E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250702 0000 17.4N 124.1E WPAC 20 1006
05W DANAS 250701 1800 17.0N 124.2E WPAC 20 1005
05W DANAS 250701 1200 16.7N 124.4E WPAC 15 1006
05W DANAS 250701 0600 16.7N 125.7E WPAC 15 1006
05W DANAS 250701 0000 15.9N 126.8E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 1800 15.0N 127.4E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 1200 14.7N 128.5E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 0600 14.7N 130.2E WPAC 15 1005
05W DANAS 250630 0000 15.2N 132.5E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 1800 15.2N 134.1E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 1200 15.0N 134.8E WPAC 20 1004
05W DANAS 250629 0600 15.0N 135.8E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250629 0000 15.1N 136.6E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250628 1800 15.0N 137.4E WPAC 15 1004
05W DANAS 250628 1200 14.9N 138.1E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250628 0600 14.6N 138.7E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250628 0000 14.4N 139.5E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250627 1800 13.7N 140.5E WPAC 15 1007
05W DANAS 250627 1200 13.3N 141.6E WPAC 15 1007

And the link to it;
Well, I was sure hoping we would get passed the 200+ day mark with that.
 
Just like those two other systems that went from just being noted to getting a high chance TCFA from the JTWC within 24 hours, Invest 93W, which was designated late last night is now has a high chance of formation by the JTWC with a TCFA also issued on it.
IMG_2742.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.1N 141.1E TO 27.1N 141.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.4N 141.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2 GW1
89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE EASTWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
112030Z.
//
NNNN
 
Invest 92W, designated shortly before Invest 93W, which was also recently designated an Invest by the JTWC has been noted by them as a low chance Invest as of now.
ABPW10 PGTW 102030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102030Z-110600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
23.2N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 26 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM IWO TO AT 101800Z SHOWS EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS GUSTING AT 31 KNOTS. A 101637Z AMSR2
GW1 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND MODERATE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) FURTHER EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH
MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ECENS BEING THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE OVERALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 102030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
25.9N 126.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
FLARING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
FURTHERMORE, A 101313Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS EMPHASIZES THE BROAD NATURE
OF 92W. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 92W IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
LOW.

(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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Dvorak on Invest 93W is T#1.5 right now.
IMG_2744.jpeg
 
Invest 93W is now Tropical Depression 06W.

The JTWC in their first forecast call for a 45 kt peak prior to extratropical transition.

IMG_2870.gif
WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/102021ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 25.0N 140.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 140.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.0N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 27.6N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.8N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 33.8N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 44.7N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3N 140.4E.
11JUL25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 102030).//
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