2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

I just keep wondering when our first Atlantic hurricane will be @Atlantic

August is the most likely month. Unless this east coast AOI decides to pull some strings and blast off literally.

 

[Kds86z]

August is the most likely month. Unless this east coast AOI decides to pull some strings and blast off literally.

Yeah true @Atlantic . Usually it’s August. Last year was unique

 

[Atlantic]

Yeah true @Atlantic . Usually it’s August. Last year was unique

Last year with that hurricane was unique in a sorts of ways.

On the topic, one year ago yesterday an anomalous monster was born…

 

[Atlantic]

I tracked it to for a brief time and I’m glad I did. When I tracked it, it had just become a record early record (for the month of June at least) strong Category 4 hurricane.

Last year with that hurricane was unique in a sorts of ways.

On the topic, one year ago yesterday an anomalous monster was born…
View attachment 44673

 

[Atlantic]

Both of these look alike quite a bit to me; here’s the interesting thing: both of them were a Hurricane Emily from two different years.

Emily 1987, a Category 3


Emily 2005, a Category 5.

This is one of the few names in the Atlantic that has managed to become a major hurricane more than once without a retirement.

 

[Kds86z]

Both of these look alike quite a bit to me; here’s the interesting thing: both of them were a Hurricane Emily from two different years.
View attachment 44675
Emily 1987, a Category 3

View attachment 44677
Emily 2005, a Category 5.

This is one of the few names in the Atlantic that has managed to become a major hurricane more than once without a retirement.

My sisters name @Atlantic why do they use names twice?

 

[Atlantic]

Both of these look alike quite a bit to me; here’s the interesting thing: both of them were a Hurricane Emily from two different years.
View attachment 44675
Emily 1987, a Category 3

View attachment 44677
Emily 2005, a Category 5.

This is one of the few names in the Atlantic that has managed to become a major hurricane more than once without a retirement.

Emily became a major hurricane in 1987, 1993 (both years were as a Category 3) and most recently 2005 (as the second earliest Category 5 on record).

Here are the tracks of the three Emily’s;

1987;


1993 (it literally mirrored its beginning track at the end of its track);



And 2005;

 

[Kds86z]

My sisters name @Atlantic why do they use names twice?

Or maybe I need to research more @Atlantic

 

[Atlantic]

My sisters name @Atlantic why do they use names twice?

What do you mean?

They use six lists of names, every list is used once in one year and then that same list ( with new names pending if any names were removed from the list in the previous time the list was used) every six years.

So the list being used this year (commonly referred to as List 5 or Atlantic List 5) will be used again in 2031.

The 2030 list shown here was used last year, 2024. In this year’s spring the names Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired and replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel. Those two new names will have a chance to be used for the first time in 2030 (minus Holly, which was used in the 1970s)

 

[Kds86z]

What do you mean?

They use six lists of names, every list is used once in one year and then that same list ( with new names pending if any names were removed from the list in the previous time the list was used) every six years.

So the list being used this year (commonly referred to as List 5 or Atlantic List 5) will be used again in 2031.
View attachment 44682
The 2030 list shown here was used last year, 2024. In this year’s spring the names Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired and replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel. Those two new names will have a chance to be used for the first time in 2030 (minus Holly, which was used in the 1970s)

Thanks much @Atlantic. I just never knew how they do all the name stuff

 

[Kds86z]

What do you mean?

They use six lists of names, every list is used once in one year and then that same list ( with new names pending if any names were removed from the list in the previous time the list was used) every six years.

So the list being used this year (commonly referred to as List 5 or Atlantic List 5) will be used again in 2031.
View attachment 44682
The 2030 list shown here was used last year, 2024. In this year’s spring the names Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired and replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel. Those two new names will have a chance to be used for the first time in 2030 (minus Holly, which was used in the 1970s

Still learning @Atlantic . I’m a tornado boy lol

 

[Kds86z]

What do you mean?

They use six lists of names, every list is used once in one year and then that same list ( with new names pending if any names were removed from the list in the previous time the list was used) every six years.

So the list being used this year (commonly referred to as List 5 or Atlantic List 5) will be used again in 2031.
View attachment 44682
The 2030 list shown here was used last year, 2024. In this year’s spring the names Beryl, Helene and Milton were retired and replaced with Brianna, Holly and Miguel. Those two new names will have a chance to be used for the first time in 2030 (minus Holly, which was used in the 1970s)

No Kevin

 

[Atlantic]

Thanks much @Atlantic. I just never knew how they do all the name stuff

Prior to 1977, they used all-female names in lists. Due to backlash over that, they implemented a male-to-female set of lists beginning in 1978 in the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic in 1979. The male to female alternating name are what we have used to this day.

 

[Kds86z]

Prior to 1977, they used all-female names in lists. Due to backlash over that, they implemented a male-to-female set of lists beginning in 1978 in the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic in 1979. The male to female alternating name are what we have used to this day.

Appreciate it @Atlantic!!!

 

[Atlantic]

Flossie is now a hurricane!

BULLETIN
Hurricane Flossie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

...FLOSSIE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

Spoiler: Flossie forecast discussion number #8

Hurricane Flossie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025
900 PM CST Mon Jun 30 2025

The satellite presentation of Flossie has continued to improve this
evening, with a hint of an eye now possibly developing in the past
hour or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates came in
at T4.0/65 knots and T3.5/55 knots from SAB and TAFB respectively.
The objective intensity estimates range from 56 to 62 knots at 00z
and have since increased to between 62 and 74 knots. Based on these
data and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity
has been raised to 65 knots for this advisory package, making
Flossie a hurricane.

Flossie is heading toward the west-northwest or 300/09 knots. This
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next several days as the cyclone is steered into a weakness in
the mid-level ridge to the northwest. The track forecast is very
close to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with a
blend of the latest HCCA, TVCE and FSSE consensus aids.

The environment will remain very conducive for strengthening during
the next 36 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures of 28/29C,
abundant mid-level moisture, and light vertical wind shear. In
fact, the latest SHIPS RI probabilities show a greater than 60%
chance of a 25-knot increase in 24 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this. Additional strengthening is forecast
through 36 hours, with the cyclone beginning to weaken by 48 hours
as it moves over cooler water. Rather rapid weakening will then
follow as Flossie moves over progressively cooler water and begins
to entrain dry mid-level air. The system is forecast to become a
post-tropical low by 72 hours and a post-tropical remnant low at
96 hours. The intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity aids, closest to SHIPS and NNIC, which show rapid
intensification.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie should bring locally
heavy rainfall to coastal portions of the Mexican states of
Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly
in steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico, tonight
through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 16.5N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.5N 109.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 24.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

They are not calling for Flossie to peak at 110 mph, but I personally think it is a possibility that Flossie could become major hurricane.

 

[JPWX]

You have to go all the way back to 1984 to find where the Eastern Pacific had 3 hurricanes within the month of June.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]