2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

Thought this thread was for non Atlantic cyclones jfl

It can be for ATL cyclones that aren’t expected to impact land.

As a general rule from what I understand from the admin on here:

A separate thread can be started for storms in the Atlantic that are expected to impact or make landfall in the U.S.
————————————————————-
Mistakes are made and sometimes a recurving storm gets a thread because they are mistaken for a soon-to-be landfalling storm. That’s how the Joyce, Kirk and Leslie threads happened.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

It can be for ATL cyclones that aren’t expected to impact land.

As a general rule from what I understand from the admin on here:

A separate thread can be started for storms in the Atlantic that are expected to impact or make landfall in the U.S.

Understood bhai

————————————————————-
Mistakes are made and sometimes a recurving storm gets a thread because they are mistaken for a soon-to-be landfalling storm. That’s how the Joyce, Kirk and Leslie threads happened.

Kirks me

 

[Atlantic]

Sepat’s new forecast (Forecast #03 by the JTWC)

Spoiler: Warning text

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 24.6N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 26.6N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 28.6N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 30.4N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.3N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 35.4N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 40.3N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 144.3E.
23JUN25. TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM
EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230000Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//

 

[Atlantic]

A post from Alan Snyder;

 

[Atlantic]

If Invest 90L forms, we will be returning to the subslopical shanaigans that we were getting pre-2023.

This year definitely seems like a subtropics kind of year after last year had just a mere two storms form in the subtropics (Isaac and Patty). Wind shear prevented more storms from forming in the subtropics in 2024.

2023 was recurve central due to record warm waters clashing with a El Niño that weakened the Bermuda-Azores High.

2024 was deep tropics action due to a cool neutral combined with the continuation of 2023’s record warm waters. Minus the jacked-up monsoon trough over northern Africa during late-August and into early-September along with drier air aloft plus wind shear, which prevented us from going 20+ NS. We still surprisingly managed to get to within 2 NS of 20 NS with a final total of 18 NS in the end.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

If Invest 90L forms, we will be returning to the subslopical shanaigans that we were getting pre-2023.

This year definitely seems like a subtropics kind of year after last year had just a mere two storms form in the subtropics (Isaac and Patty). Wind shear prevented more storms from forming in the subtropics in 2024.

Ok PAT PAT

2023 was recurve central due to record warm waters clashing with a El Niño that weakened the Bermuda-Azores High.

2024 was deep tropics action due to a cool neutral combined with the continuation of 2023’s record warm waters. Minus the jacked-up monsoon trough over northern Africa during late-August and into early-September along with drier air aloft plus wind shear, which prevented us from going 20+ NS. We still surprisingly managed to get to within 2 NS of 20 NS with a final total of 18 NS in the end.

LMAOOOOOO

AL, 90, 202506230000, 3180N, 5640W, TAFB, SS, I, 5, 1515