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2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Well 93A failed to do anything, but it might actually be our Bay of Bengal AOI. It is moving east overland in Central India right now.
 
It is now May 24th. The Western Pacific has now gone into the top five latest starting seasons on record for the second consecutive year in a row and as it appears that the Western Pacific will not produce a TC within the next 7 days, this streak is favored to continue for at least the next week.

Should we reach May 27th without the first TC not forming, this season will move up to the fourth latest starting season on record.
 
Invest 90E is up in the Eastern Pacific. This is the first Invest in the Western Hemisphere this season so far. 90E is up to 70% in 48 hour or 2 days and 90% in 7 days.

I’m thinking it’s safe to say we will be getting Tropical Depression One-E here within the next 24-48 hours.
 
Kds86z said:
Let’s go!
Click to expand...
It appears to be getting even closer to a possible tropical depression, an 80/90 shot at development now;
IMG_6459.jpeg
Plus the model guidance in files attached.
 

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Atlantic said:
It appears to be getting even closer to a possible tropical depression, an 80/90 shot at development now;
View attachment 43283
Plus the model guidance in files attached.
Click to expand...
Notice in one of the screenshots that RI25 and RI30 have triggered. That appears to be a small chance at a 25-30 kt increase in intensity in 24ish hours.
 
Invest 94B was designated in the Bay of Bengal. It doesn’t look like much right now, but it could try to form into a storm later on down the road.

The center is somewhere in the yellow circle
IMG_6508.jpeg
 
The current ENSO state around the world. Note in the equatorial pacific we are in neutral right now.

Models think we could dip back down into La Niña territory in the fall
IMG_6512.png
 
The Western Pacific continues its slumber into June for the first time in at least two decades.

In the Eastern Pacific we had Tropical Storm Alvin, the first of the season over there.
 
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We have to watch the Eastern Pacific yet again with what is currently a 0/40 AOI that could show up in the coming days.

The Atlantic now should be watched as well, because we have a sloppy signal offshore of the Carolinas, which the GFS recently started to pick up on and a possible CAG-related on-and-off signal by the GFS as well.
 
This, based off of what I can tell is what’s left of Alvin;
IMG_6581.jpeg
The little thing sitting just left of the center of this image. The swirl looking thing.
 
Kds86z said:
Rest in piece Alvin…
Click to expand...
It formed about a month earlier than its 2019 version.

Alvin 2019 was Cat 1 that formed on June 25th
 
This is new;
IMG_6611.jpeg
You used to only see the Central Pacific only on the Central Pacific area. This here is from the Eastern Pacific area.
 
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