• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

Tropical Storm Ragasa should become the first Super Typhoon of 2025, but if it doesn't, it'll put 2025 on the verge of eclipsing 1999 at 8th spot.
Longest Consecutive Day Streak Until First Super Typhoon (Cat.4/5):
1. 1984: 297 days
2. 1985: 287 days
3. 1998 and 2010: 284 days
4. 1973: 276 days
5. 1988: 275 days
6. 1963: 273 days
7. 1981: 268 days
8. 1999: 263 days
9. 2025: 261 days
 
Last edited:
Neoguri is getting its act together faster than Ragasa, but Ragasa has the better appearance right now in terms of structure primed for upcoming RI. Both systems are forecast as of now to peak beyond 100 kts (possibly adding two more cyclones to the major cyclone tally, as we stand at 15 right now)

Ragasa is forecast to peak at 120 kts (10 kts shy of STY status)

Neoguri is forecast to peak at 110 kts (just shy of Category 4-equivalent status). Neoguri previously was predicted to peak at 115 kts, but the JTWC has lowered the forecast peak for this warning.
 
I discovered something cool about Neoguri independently, but two other people on X are noting it as well.

Remember Hurricane Kiko north of Hawaii? Remember how it got sheared to death by an upper level low? Let’s track that upper level low as it moves westward. What do we get? Typhoon Neoguri!

Typhoon Neoguri originated from the same upper level low that sheared Kiko to death just north of Hawaii about 10 days ago.

 
I discovered something cool about Neoguri independently, but two other people on X are noting it as well.

Remember Hurricane Kiko north of Hawaii? Remember how it got sheared to death by an upper level low? Let’s track that upper level low as it moves westward. What do we get? Typhoon Neoguri!

Typhoon Neoguri originated from the same upper level low that sheared Kiko to death just north of Hawaii about 10 days ago.


And here is another reference for the Kiko-Neoguri relationship;
IMG_7789.jpeg
 
Breaking:

24W RAGASA 250920 1200 17.2N 128.7E WPAC 100 957

Typhoon Ragasa becomes the first operational major typhoon of the season with an intensity of 100 kts as of now. More intensification is extremely likely and odds are increasing that Ragasa could become a Super Typhoon before entering the South China Sea.
 
Last edited:
JTWC now expecting a Super Typhoon out of Ragasa as I anticipated.

WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.8N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.4N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 20.0N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.1N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.3N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.6N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 128.4E.
20SEP25. TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 471 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS
957 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
25W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
 
This is an incredible improvement of appearance in the past 24 hours!
IMG_7797.jpegIMG_7798.jpeg
 

Attachments

  • IMG_7798.jpeg
    IMG_7798.jpeg
    836.6 KB · Views: 0
I guess some chasers go over seas to chase if Atlantic is boring….


Well all of the action is in the Western Pacific right now, so you can’t blame them.
 
Anyone want another pinhole eye? Gabrielle maybe trying to form one as well.

Recon data for possible beginnings of an eye:
IMG_7815.png

GIF of Tropical Storm Gabrielle shows the eye-like feature better.
 
In a very rare occurrence (since recon doesn’t fly from the JTWC anymore though the WPAC) Neoguri will get a typhoon hunter recon craft tomorrow which will go thorough the eye. @JPWX

 
In a very rare occurrence (since recon doesn’t fly from the JTWC anymore though the WPAC) Neoguri will get a typhoon hunter recon craft tomorrow which will go thorough the eye. @JPWX


ABOUT DANG TIME!!!!
 
ABOUT DANG TIME!!!!
I found out apparently they have been sending planes to 1 or 2 typhoons a year since 2017, but this is the first one I’m going to witness!

I’m so excited!
 
Let’s play spot the plane shall we? (I already know where it is)
IMG_7819.png
 
You can’t tell me this isn’t a Cat 4-equivalent typhoon already. Nearly cleared our eye, well defined convection all around the eye… you name it. ATCF currently has 95 kts as of 12Z.
IMG_7820.jpeg
 
Last edited:
I found out apparently they have been sending planes to 1 or 2 typhoons a year since 2017, but this is the first one I’m going to witness!

I’m so excited!
I'm wondering what they've found thus far like lowest pressure, max intensity, etc since they've started that. Like a website to view that data.
 
I'm wondering what they've found thus far like lowest pressure, max intensity, etc since they've started that. Like a website to view that data.
Try Tropical Atlantic.

It has some, very little data on non-NHC storms, but I’ve yet to find a site that displays WPAC data from JMA.
 
Back
Top