2025 Global Tropical Cyclone Season Discussion

[Atlantic]

The 2024-25 SHEM Season so far:

01S Ancha
02S Bheki
03S Robyn
04S Chido
05S Five (1) (AR)
06P Six (1) (SPAC)
07S Dikeledi
08P Pita
09S Nine (1) (AR)
10S Sean
11S Faida
12S Elvis
13S Vince
14S Taliah
15P Fifteen (1) (SPAC)
16P Sixteen (1) (SPAC)
17S Zelia
18P Alfred
19P Rae
20S Bianca
21P Seru
22S Garance
23S Honde

(1) Storm was not named by the official RMSC of the region it formed in

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Don't underestimate Humbarto, that's what I would say. Humbarto has been on a hurricane streak.

It was a hurricane in 1995 when the name was first used, it became one again in 2001, 2007, was the strongest of the only two hurricanes of the pathetic 2013 season and was a MH for the first time in 2019.

I just worry about what could happen in 2025 Hurricane Season. I expect the unexpected this season.

Notice how Ivan, Otis and Felix had similar histories before the magnum opuses

 

[Atlantic]

Notice how Ivan, Otis and Felix had similar histories before the magnum opuses

Magnum opuses?

I know that Otis each time it was used became a hurricane too, cultivating in its final iteration as a record-breaking Category 5 landfall into Mexico.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Magnum opuses?

blowing up into some land-devastating category 5

I know that Otis each time it was used became a hurricane too, cultivating in its final iteration as a record-breaking Category 5 landfall into Mexico.

I wonder why certain names are like this

 

[Atlantic]

We have Invest 98P and Invest 99S (Tropical Low 21U). 98P is located in the South Pacific, and as with many other Invests this season 99S is located in the Western AU Region.

 

[Atlantic]

Cyclone Taliah is incredibly still going and is expected to last another day or two before dying out due to strong wind shear, dry air and cold SSTs. Taliah formed on February 1st.

Taliah has well outlasted its twin (Vince) and has outlasted 15P, 16P and Zelia. Taliah has produced 19.4 ACE to date.

 

[Atlantic]

The SWIO's total seasonal ACE for the 2024-25 season is over double the average of what it usually would be by this day in the season.

This is mostly due to the SWIO having 4 major cyclones, of which Chido and Vince were long-lasting at major status.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

The SWIO's total seasonal ACE for the 2024-25 season is over double the average of what it usually would be by this day in the season.

This is mostly due to the SWIO having 4 major cyclones, of which Chido and Vince were long-lasting at major status.

View attachment 33977

TF is muh 0.3 in the atlantic

 

[Atlantic]

TF is muh 0.3 in the atlantic

<shrugs>

HAVE you seen this?!??! Invest 93W is sitting at 1.9N 104.6W in the South China Sea! The JTWC noted this once before and then said it was dissapted, before noting it again:



B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.9N
104.6E, APPROXIMATELY 59 NM NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE INTO CURVED BANDS. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEFINED CURVED
BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDE. ALSO A PARTIAL 171642Z
ASCAT METOP-C SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOT
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH AREAS OF 25-
35 KNOT WINDS, UNDER THE CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION, FUNNELING BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND THE MALAYSIAN
COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (27-28C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING THIS AREA UP AND DO NOT SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 93W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

 

[Atlantic]

 

[Atlantic]

The 34th TC Warning on Moderate Tropical Storm Taliah is now out!

The JTWC expected some possible slight intensification in the 12 hours before Taliah turns Post-Tropical by February 19th.



As of now Tropical Cyclone Taliah has lasted 16 days, the longest lasting TC of 2025 so far.

 

[Atlantic]

For those who want the JTWC graphic forecast cone rather than the Zoom Earth version, plus the full warning:

WTXS33 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 30.0S 77.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.0S 77.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.8S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 31.3S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 31.1S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.3S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 30.2S 76.9E.
17FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1202 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

 

[Atlantic]

Progantic Reasoning is out on the 34th warning:

Taliah will continue tracking south-southwestward along the western side of the subtropical ridge for the next 12 to 24 hours.

The subtropical ridge weakens and pulls northward, while a trough passes by the to the south over the next day, weakening the steering gradient.

Taliah will continue to slow down in response to the steadily weakening steering influences. The system turns sharply west, then west-northwest after 24 hours, as a transient low-to mid-level ridge passes by to the south. This ridge is fast moving and will pass to the east of Taliah in 60 hours.

The system turns sharply poleward in 3 days, as the ridge to the east becomes oriented along a northwest-southeast axis. Even though the system is situated over very cool waters, multi-model phase space diagrams and phase classifications show it remains a deep, warm-core tropical cyclone.

High-resolution models suggest that the environment will moisten somewhat over the next 24 hours, and combined with the robust poleward outflow, support a brief period of intensification.

The forecast calls for a peak of 85 km/h (45 knots) at 12 hours, followed by steady weakening through the remainder of the forecast due to the influence of increasing dry air intrusion, and decreased outflow, particularly after 2 days.

The system is not expected to transition to either subtropical or extratropical low during the forecast period but will instead dissipate as a tropical cyclone in 3 days.

Deterministic track guidance is in good agreement on the track scenario, with minimal cross-track spread over the next 2 days, though it increases to about 278 km by the end of the forecast as the system turns poleward.

The ECMWF shows the sharpest turn and marks the eastern side of the guidance envelope while the GALWEM shows a much later turn and marks the western edge of the guidance package.

The JTWC forecast sticks close to the GFS solution, with medium confidence. Intensity guidance is in good agreement through the JTWC forecast deviates from the guidance in depicting an intensification over the next 12 hours, as all members of the package show a steady intensity over the next 24 hours.

For the remainder of the forecast, the JTWC forecast is consistent with the consensus mean.

 

[Atlantic]

Olga 2023-24 on the left and Zelia 2024-25 on the right…


See any similarities?

 

[Atlantic]

I also have this from 1997 and 1982 (undesignated cyclones by the NHC, as in not even unnamed or unnumbered)

 

[Atlantic]

Goodbye Dikeledi indeed.
View attachment 33096

I managed to make a video of Dikeledi’s journey:



Read the comments for a comment of mine on the video.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Olga 2023-24 on the left and Zelia 2024-25 on the right…

View attachment 33982View attachment 33983
See any similarities?

both have strong 8s numerologically but olga 2024 will mog olga 2025 to oblivion because of 2024's UY 8

 

[Atlantic]

To me, Invest 99S (Tropical Low 21U) is get its act together very quickly. It has what looks to be a curved band on its west side and a small core of convection near the presumed center of circulation. I would go Medium chance on this Invest right now.

 

[Atlantic]

In an unusual circumstance, Invest 91P has been designated at 23.0S, 126.3E. The official eastern boundary of the South Pacific is 120.0E.

 

[Atlantic]

We are now in the midst of a tropical cyclone outbreak in the southern hemisphere with Tropical Cyclone Rae active in the SPAC, Tropical Cyclone Alfred active in the eastern Australian Region and Tropical Cyclone Bianca active in the western Australian Region. Alfred was supposed to be named Anthony but the name was changed to avoid confusion with Australia’s Prime Minister who has the name Anthony.

Invest 92P is still classified as a subtropical cyclone.

We have Invest 96P at high chance in the SPAC and we also have Invest 97S in the Mozambique Channel in the SWIO at a low chance.

We are now at 20 designated tropical cyclones by the JTWC, it took last season until the end of March to reach the same amount of storms.