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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Second-year La Nina Major Hurricanes going back to 1990:

Screenshot 2025-04-22 2.07.24 PM.png
Notice the black oval I did. That is where it appears the MH are concentrated in second-year La Nina seasons.

As opposed to first year La Nina seasons:
Screenshot 2025-04-22 2.13.32 PM.png
 
Atlantic SSTs are closer to normal compared to the same time last year.
The Gulf of Mexico continues to be an outlier, with SSTs 1-3°C warmer than average.

However, the Atlantic hurricane basin is running slightly above average in most areas, with some areas (north Caribbean in particular) running a little below average.

A glaring local anomaly exists in the Gulf Stream east of Maine and Newfoundland, where water temps are as much as 5 degrees Celsius below average (or 9 degrees Fahrenheit!) That's quite a difference!
 
lake.effect said:
Atlantic SSTs are closer to normal compared to the same time last year.
The Gulf of Mexico continues to be an outlier, with SSTs 1-3°C warmer than average.

However, the Atlantic hurricane basin is running slightly above average in most areas, with some areas (north Caribbean in particular) running a little below average.

A glaring local anomaly exists in the Gulf Stream east of Maine and Newfoundland, where water temps are as much as 5 degrees Celsius below average (or 9 degrees Fahrenheit!) That's quite a difference!
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What would this imply
 
lake.effect said:
Nothing specifically, it's just one indicator in the early season.

Warmer than normal SSTs favor a more active tropical season, but it's not required nor is it sufficient.

If anything, it's a good sign, better than the opposite. But the season is early.
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How active do you think the season would be
 
LMAOOOOOOOOO NAHHHH NAHHHH BRO WHAT
Y5x5Fda.png
 
Watch for in close development and rapid feedback this season. This season as far as analog looks 2018ish.
 
JPWX said:
Watch for in close development and rapid feedback this season. This season as far as analog looks 2018ish.
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Rapid feedback? As in GFS?

I don't know, the 2008 and 2017 analog signals are there too.
 
Atlantic said:
Rapid feedback? As in GFS?

I don't know, the 2008 and 2017 analog signals are there too.
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No. What I mean is storms that form close in will have potential to rapidly intensify on approach to landfall. Like Michael, Helene, Zeta, etc.
 
slenker said:
Why is 2018 a bad analog? I've heard 2018 being tossed around a bit online.
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Basically because of two storms. Florence and Michael. Otherwise, if you hadn't had Florence and Michael, the season wouldn't have been bad. Just above normal storm total and ACE wise. Though the ACE may have been slightly below normal without Florence, Michael, and Leslie.
 
JPWX said:
Basically because of two storms. Florence and Michael. Otherwise, if you hadn't had Florence and Michael, the season wouldn't have been bad. Just above normal storm total and ACE wise. Though the ACE may have been slightly below normal without Florence, Michael, and Leslie.
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Oh no, I understand it's a bad sign of activity lol. I meant why is 2018 not a good description of this upcoming season?
 
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