-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
What is this? I can't see it right now.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Nathaniel Tabor
@WeatherCast3
I have begun to finalize my analogs for summer 2025. The plains are probably going to roast for extended periods. But the southeast and gulf coast will likely remain cooler and rainier. Hurricane season looks likely to have 16-19 named systems, of those 2-4 major hurricanes. Activity will also likely be notably shifted north of the MDR into the central Atlantic. The gulf looks quieter than recent years however any activity there looks likely to be focused in the eastern 3rd of the gulf, with the exception of the outside chance of a system forming along the western gulf coast. I’ll have many more details on this later on.
Wazim Khan
Member
- Messages
- 109
- Location
- Trinidad and Tobago
ENSO-Neutral tending to weak La Niña for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Wazim Khan
Member
- Messages
- 109
- Location
- Trinidad and Tobago
The latest UKMET is forecasting a weak La Niña in August to October 2025.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
Ensemble-mean maps
Ensemble-mean fields up to six months ahead. Updated monthly,
www.metoffice.gov.uk
Here is my final preseason forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season (Final forecast until October)
13-19 Named Storms (median of 16)
6-12 Hurricanes (median of 9)
3-7 Major Hurricanes (median of 5)
(Note: The prediction above will also include pre-season and post-season storms wherever and whenever they occur if they occur at all.)
ACE around 170-180 (median of 175)
My top analogs are 2008 and 2017:
2008 produced 16 NS, 8 HU and 5 MH
2017 produced 17 NS, 10 HU and 6 MH
The average of these two seasons is 16 NS, 9 HU and 5 MH
U.S impact-wise:
2008 saw eight tropical cyclones make landfall (most notable storm was Tropical Storm Fay, which made FOUR landfalls in Florida) No MH made landfall in the U.S.
2017 saw five tropical cyclones make landfall (most notable was Hurricane Harvey, due to its devastating effects of stalling over Texas that led to tons of rainfall).There was two MH landfalls in the U.S.: Harvey in Texas and Irma in Florida.
I expect 3-9 tropical cyclones to make landfall in the U.S. this season based off these analogs with a median of 6 landfalls expected, with 1-3 Major Hurricane landfalls with a median of 2 Major Hurricane landfalls possible in the U.S.
I also expect 1-3 Hurricanes (Non-Major Hurricanes) to possibly make landfall in the U.S. with a median of 2 hurricane landfalls possible.
Both seasons had minimal activity in the MDR (Tropical Atlantic) with most activity ramping up around 50W. Both seasons had at least one long-tracker (Hurricane Ike in 2008 and Hurricane Irma in 2017). Both seasons had plenty of Gulf activity as well. The Caribbean had activity pushed to the north in 2008 and to the west in 2017, otherwise the Caribbean was mostly quiet. Both seasons had a bunch of activity just to the north of the Greater Antilles as well.
Basin-wise landfalls:
2008 saw 17 landfalls across the basin.
2017 saw 16 landfalls across the basin.
I expect 13-19 total landfalls for anywhere in the basin with a median of 16 landfalls possible during the season, this will also include pre-season and post-season storms wherever and whenever they occur if they occur at all.
All predictions made here will also include pre-season and post-season storms wherever and whenever they occur if they occur at all for stats as well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My next prediction will be sometime in October, likely in mid-October, so see you then!
13-19 Named Storms (median of 16)
6-12 Hurricanes (median of 9)
3-7 Major Hurricanes (median of 5)
(Note: The prediction above will also include pre-season and post-season storms wherever and whenever they occur if they occur at all.)
ACE around 170-180 (median of 175)
My top analogs are 2008 and 2017:
2008 produced 16 NS, 8 HU and 5 MH
2017 produced 17 NS, 10 HU and 6 MH
The average of these two seasons is 16 NS, 9 HU and 5 MH
U.S impact-wise:
2008 saw eight tropical cyclones make landfall (most notable storm was Tropical Storm Fay, which made FOUR landfalls in Florida) No MH made landfall in the U.S.
2017 saw five tropical cyclones make landfall (most notable was Hurricane Harvey, due to its devastating effects of stalling over Texas that led to tons of rainfall).There was two MH landfalls in the U.S.: Harvey in Texas and Irma in Florida.
I expect 3-9 tropical cyclones to make landfall in the U.S. this season based off these analogs with a median of 6 landfalls expected, with 1-3 Major Hurricane landfalls with a median of 2 Major Hurricane landfalls possible in the U.S.
I also expect 1-3 Hurricanes (Non-Major Hurricanes) to possibly make landfall in the U.S. with a median of 2 hurricane landfalls possible.
Both seasons had minimal activity in the MDR (Tropical Atlantic) with most activity ramping up around 50W. Both seasons had at least one long-tracker (Hurricane Ike in 2008 and Hurricane Irma in 2017). Both seasons had plenty of Gulf activity as well. The Caribbean had activity pushed to the north in 2008 and to the west in 2017, otherwise the Caribbean was mostly quiet. Both seasons had a bunch of activity just to the north of the Greater Antilles as well.
Basin-wise landfalls:
2008 saw 17 landfalls across the basin.
2017 saw 16 landfalls across the basin.
I expect 13-19 total landfalls for anywhere in the basin with a median of 16 landfalls possible during the season, this will also include pre-season and post-season storms wherever and whenever they occur if they occur at all.
All predictions made here will also include pre-season and post-season storms wherever and whenever they occur if they occur at all for stats as well.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My next prediction will be sometime in October, likely in mid-October, so see you then!
IdaliaHelene
Member
Do you have any name predictions?
Not as of now. But if I did, it would be Imelda and Melissa.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Yawn. Why those two over dumberto
Just following the trends of recent years.
2020: Iota
2021: Ida
2022: Ian
2023: Idalia
2024: Milton
The letter "M" has a curse for Category 5 it seems.
1998: Mitch
2016: Matthew
2017: Maria
2018: Michael
2024: Milton
You have the "I" curse:
2001: Iris
2002: Isidore
2003: Isabel
2004: Ivan
2010: Igor
2011: Irene
2013: Ingrid
2017: Irma
2020: Iota (Technally a greek letter, though still an I name)
2021: Ida
2022: Ian
IdaliaHelene
Member
JFL at this NPC tier excrement
Humberto > imelda
Any fucking time
Humberto will MOG imelda to the slums of Kabul and back
I mean I can see the "H" name as well, due to the unexpected Helene in 2024.
Had Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight been named, Helene would have Isaac instead.
Had Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight been named, Helene would have Isaac instead.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Tell me your predictions on Humberto
Asking for a group of friends who are all pegging humberto > all
IdaliaHelene
Member
IdaliaHelene
Member
so you're gonna NPCmaxx I assume
and follow the herd that any storm beginning with I or M must mog
JFL
Humberto + Gonzalo + Deshawn > all
I mean this: We try to predict the names that will be super destructive, but the Atlantic has a way of surprising us out of nowhere.
So Humbarto, Imelda, Melissa and (I feel this one too) Nestor as well.
IdaliaHelene
Member
I just went based off numerology JFL. Also I lowkey want Omar, Gonzalo, Deshawn as big ones next year
and Imani in 2027
What are you thinking for H/I/M/N?
IdaliaHelene
Member
humberto ominousmogs Melissa and Nestor to mumbai