I may be an American but it is still and always will be the Gulf of Mexico to me.
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
Barry 2019 style...
IdaliaHelene
Member
JFL, it's basically predicting a redux
my numerology is going well so far but UNDERESTIMATED Alfred to the slums of Gold Coast
What do you have on Alfred?
Let's take it to the Global Discussion thread though.
For my March prediction, here is what I expect:
18 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
ACE between 135 and 190 this time around
I have Low confidence in this prediction.
The LRC cycle prediction has released and is suggesting a active year in the GoM.
18 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes
ACE between 135 and 190 this time around
I have Low confidence in this prediction.
The LRC cycle prediction has released and is suggesting a active year in the GoM.
IdaliaHelene
Member
I'll ping you there
IdaliaHelene
Member
March 2025 updated numerology forecast
| Storm | Dates Active | Peak Cat. | Max Winds | Numerology (D–S–P) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea | May 25 – Jun 2 | TS | ~45–50 mph (~72–80 km/h) | 7 – 7 – 9 | Weak, overshadowed—one of the first systems but not significant. |
| Barry | Jun 10 – Jun 16 | Cat 2 | ~100 mph (~160 km/h) | 1 – 1 – 9 | Brief intensifier in the warm Gulf; its impulsive “1” energy is quickly outcompeted. |
| Chantal | Jul 15 – Jul 20 | TS | ~45–50 mph | 5 – 2 – 3 | Quick recurvature in the open Atlantic—lacks deep energy. |
| Dexter | Jul 20 – Jul 26 | TS | ~60 mph | 4 – 1 – 3 | Structurally solid but low-energy; fades quickly. |
| Erin | Jul 28 – Aug 6 | Cat 2 | ~95–100 mph (~153–160 km/h) | 1 – 5 – 5 | "Double 5" potential to intensify quickly but remains moderate. |
| Fernand | Aug 5 – Aug 14 | Cat 1–2 | ~105 mph (~170 km/h) | 8 – 6 – 2 | High Destiny 8 and balanced Soul 6; overshadowed by stronger storms. |
| Gabrielle | Aug 10 – Aug 20 | Cat 2 | ~90–100 mph (~145–160 km/h) | 8 – 2 – 6 | Strong numerology but lacks explosive energy. |
| Humberto | Aug 26 – Sep 10 | Cat 5 | ~165 mph (~265 km/h) | 3 – 5 – 7 | "Winner‐takes‐all" storm; peak intensity & landfall aligned with 25‐date (Sep 7). |
| Imelda | Sep 7 – Sep 14 | TS | ~60 mph | 8 – 6 – 2 | Minor Gulf impact, overshadowed by Humberto. |
| Jerry | Sep 12 – Sep 21 | TS / Cat 1 | ~70–75 mph (~113 km/h) | 4 – 5 – 8 | Active during peak period but remains low-impact. |
| Karen | Sep 20 – Sep 27 | TS | ~70 mph | 4 – 6 – 7 | Meandering system with balanced energy but not major. |
| Lorenzo | Sep 28 – Oct 10 | Cat 4 | ~155 mph (~250 km/h) | 6 – 8 – 7 | Strong Cape Verde storm; overlaps with Melissa but may be overshadowed. |
| Melissa | Oct 2 – Oct 18 | Cat 5 | ~165–175 mph (~265–280 km/h) | 6 – 6 – 9 | The apex storm—unstoppable intensity in UY 9 energy. |
| Nestor | Oct 15 – Oct 23 | TS | ~65 mph | 1 – 2 – 8 | Filler system, overshadowed by Melissa and Lorenzo. |
| Olga | Oct 24 – Oct 30 | TS | ~55 mph | 8 – 7 – 1 | Could have potential but lacks execution. |
| Pablo | Nov 1 – Nov 5 | TS | ~55 mph | 1 – 7 – 3 | Weak numerology; unlikely to intensify significantly. |
| Rebekah | Nov 6 – Nov 9 | TS | ~50 mph | 5 – 2 – 3 | Adaptive but passive—fades quickly. |
- Messages
- 630
- Location
- Columbus, OH
I saw a discussion from you guys earlier on 2017 being an analog for this year - sounds like big trouble brewing to me.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Yes, what are your thoughts on that?
A lot of mets were saying "muh 2018" but I instantly knew that was off
also 2017 had some warming off the EPAC early IDK how tho explain
I'm beginning to think about 2008 and 2011 as ENSO analogs now too. Both years were a second year La Nina following an El Nino.
2008 came out with 16 named storms
2011 came out with 19 named storms
and 2017 came out with 17 named storms
Averaged out, the average of the three is 17 named storms.
2008 came out with 16 named storms
2011 came out with 19 named storms
and 2017 came out with 17 named storms
Averaged out, the average of the three is 17 named storms.
This year also reminds me of 2005.
2004-05 had a Modoki El Nino with warmth in the CPAC and La Nina-like conditions in the Eastern Pacific.
2024-25 was the reverse, with warmth within the Eastern Pacific, and La-Nina-like conditions in the CPAC.
2003 and 2023 both had an open ocean Category 5 which eventually made landfall (Isabel in 2003 landfalled in NC as a Category 2, Lee in 2023 was extratropical)
Both 2004 and 2024 had multiple Florida landfalls and a Caribbean cruiser (Ivan in 2004, Beryl is 2024)
2004-05 had a Modoki El Nino with warmth in the CPAC and La Nina-like conditions in the Eastern Pacific.
2024-25 was the reverse, with warmth within the Eastern Pacific, and La-Nina-like conditions in the CPAC.
2003 and 2023 both had an open ocean Category 5 which eventually made landfall (Isabel in 2003 landfalled in NC as a Category 2, Lee in 2023 was extratropical)
Both 2004 and 2024 had multiple Florida landfalls and a Caribbean cruiser (Ivan in 2004, Beryl is 2024)
Oh and the pattern was El NIno in 2006, La Nina in 2007 and 2008.
El Nino in 2009, La Nina in 2010 and 2011.
Both 2009 and 2012 (To a certain degree, it was a failed El Nino) were warm neutral or El Nino events.
Which also leads me to think that 2026 could be an El Nino year but that right now it is way too soon to tell.
2017 fits the pattern too.
2015 was an El Nino. 2016 was a La Nina and 2017 was a second year La Nina.
2018 was an El Nino.
IdaliaHelene
Member
JFL they lemoned it on the NHC page, if you've seen it
Do you think the lemon will turn into Andrea
Low chance. They did say that no other STWO were expected to be issued "unless conditions warrant".
Wazim Khan
Member
- Messages
- 109
- Location
- Trinidad and Tobago
Unlikely to develop, conditions not favorable.
Wazim Khan
Member
- Messages
- 109
- Location
- Trinidad and Tobago
2008 also had an El Niño Costero early in the year like 2017 and 2025.
