El Nino Costero? What is that?
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
- Thread starter Atlantic
- Start date
Wazim Khan
Member
- Messages
- 109
- Location
- Trinidad and Tobago
Another similarity with 2017, definitely a sign.
Wazim Khan
Member
- Messages
- 109
- Location
- Trinidad and Tobago
Above-normal Sea Surface Temperatures in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
This recent borderline tornado super outbreak makes me think of 2011, which was a second year La Nina and had 19 Named Storms.
The track trends suggest 2017 though.
I mentioned 2005 earlier for the fact of how previous environmental conditions are matching slightly to it as well. Well early indications from forecasters are calling for a near average to slightly above average season. This also occurred in 2005, with near average numbers called for in May of that year.
Snippet from the 2005 forecast:
"For the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season the ACE index is expected to be in the range of 120%-190% of the median. The outlook also calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes [categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale]."
This also applies to the 2017 season, (snippet of the 2017 May forecast):
Snippet from the 2005 forecast:
"For the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season the ACE index is expected to be in the range of 120%-190% of the median. The outlook also calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes [categories 3-4-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale]."
This also applies to the 2017 season, (snippet of the 2017 May forecast):
- "11-17 Named Storms, which includes Tropical Storm Arlene in April
- 5-9 Hurricanes
- 2-4 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 75%-155% of the median, which includes Arlene in April"
KevinH
Member
- Messages
- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
*copied from the Severe Weather 2025 therad*
Mind you, we are in MARCH. I am not sure if this has been seen before, but when I said don’t be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, or things that people (in general, not METS) think are “impossible”, THIS is what I mean:
Mind you, we are in MARCH. I am not sure if this has been seen before, but when I said don’t be surprised when the earth starts doing things it has never done before, or things that people (in general, not METS) think are “impossible”, THIS is what I mean:
- Messages
- 630
- Location
- Columbus, OH
It's most certainly not impossible for a storm to form in March, just very rare. With climate change unfolding the way it is, I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes more common as time marches onwards.
IdaliaHelene
Member
Over for marchlemoncels
I was just about to bring up what become Arlene JFL. Did she also have low chances and blew up?
IdaliaHelene
Member
notice how the forecasts were pissweak and how in 2017 they predicted the same thing too + the costero thingy
yeah it's OVER for humbertocels come august-september, along with Melissa
IdaliaHelene
Member
IdaliaHelene
Member
Yaakov cantor has some SERIOUSLY good content BTW, without underestimating anything
I can't see it on my computer. Is there another way to see it?
IdaliaHelene
Member
March 26, 2025 numerology-based hurricane forecast
@Wazim Khan @Atlantic this is my updated forecast (using the Aussie storms to calibrate), please tell me what you think:
| Name | Numerology (Destiny / Soul / Pers.) | Formation Window | Peak Intensity | Likely Path | Retirement Potential | Notes / Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea | 7 / 7 / 9 | May 25–28 | TS (50–60 mph) | East Coast brush (Carolinas–MA) |  Unlikely | Quiet opener; may flare on a 25-date |
| Barry | 1 / 8 / 2 | June 20–23 | Cat 1 (80–90 mph) | Texas–LA landfall | Unlikely | Stronger if landfall hits on June 25 |
| Chantal | 5 / 2 / 3 | July 12–14 | TS (60–65 mph) | Mid-Atlantic recurver | No | Mutable, lacks explosive numerology |
| Dexter | 4 / 1 / 3 | July 28–30 | Cat 2 (100–105 mph) | Near Bermuda, east recurver | Unlikely | Methodical; gains if triggered by 11 |
| Erin | 1 / 5 / 5 | Aug 17–18 | Cat 3 (120 mph) | Hits PR, brushes FL/GA |  Possible | Explosive; high risk if aligned with 8/25 |
| Fernand | 8 / 6 / 11 | Aug 5–11 | Cat 1–2 (105 mph) | Central Gulf (FL Panhandle?) |  Maybe | May briefly spike near 8/8 or 8/11 |
| Gabrielle | 8 / 2 / 6 | Aug 10–17 | Cat 1 (80–85 mph) | Near Bermuda / open recurver | No | Steady, creative; non-destructive |
| Humberto | 3 / 5 / 7 | Aug 26–Sep 10 | Cat 5 (165–170 mph) | Major landfall FL/Carolinas | Very likely | Signature storm; peaks near 9/7 or 9/11 |
| Imelda | 8 / 6 / 11 | Sep 7–14 | TS (60–65 mph) | Weak Gulf system | No | Muted by Humberto’s influence |
| Jerry | 4 / 3 / 1 | Sep 12–21 | Cat 1 (70–75 mph) | Offshore / East Coast brush | No | Low-impact unless triggered on 9/20 |
| Karen | 22 / 6 / 7 | Sep 20–27 | TS (70 mph) | Meandering U.S. East Coast | Unclear | Balanced master number, could linger |
| Lorenzo | 6 / 8 / 7 | Sep 28–Oct 10 | Cat 4 (155 mph) | Classic long-track recurver | Possible | Long lifespan, potential Azores hit |
| Melissa | 6 / 6 / 9 | Oct 2–18 | Cat 5 (165–175 mph) | Major East Coast threat | Very likely | Double 6 + 9 in UY 9 = catastrophic |
| Nestor | 1 / 11 / 8 | Oct 15–18 | TS/Cat 1 (70–75 mph) | Weak recurver | No | May briefly spike if near 10/20 |
| Olga | 8 / 7 / 1 | Oct 24–28 | TS (55 mph) | Dissipates / recurves | No | Historically weak in Atlantic |
| Pablo | 1 / 7 / 3 | Nov 1–5 | TS (55 mph) | Azores / high-lat recurver | No | Low ACE; possibly spikes near 11/2 |
| Rebekah | 5 / 11 / 3 | Nov 6–9 | TS (50–55 mph) | NE Atlantic, short-lived | No | Soul 11 = brief activity if aligned |
| Sebastien | 4 / 2 / 11 | Nov 6–9 | TS (50–55 mph) | Season-ender, recurves | No | Quiet closure with Master influence |
IdaliaHelene
Member
March 26, 2025 numerology-based hurricane forecast
@Wazim Khan @Atlantic this is my updated forecast (using the Aussie storms to calibrate), please tell me what you think:
Name Numerology (Destiny / Soul / Pers.) Formation Window Peak Intensity Likely Path Retirement Potential Notes / Triggers Andrea 7 / 7 / 9 May 25–28 TS (50–60 mph) East Coast brush (Carolinas–MA) Quiet opener; may flare on a 25-date Barry 1 / 8 / 2 June 20–23 Cat 1 (80–90 mph) Texas–LA landfall Stronger if landfall hits on June 25 Chantal 5 / 2 / 3 July 12–14 TS (60–65 mph) Mid-Atlantic recurver Mutable, lacks explosive numerology Dexter 4 / 1 / 3 July 28–30 Cat 2 (100–105 mph) Near Bermuda, east recurver Methodical; gains if triggered by 11 Erin 1 / 5 / 5 Aug 17–18 Cat 3 (120 mph) Hits PR, brushes FL/GA Explosive; high risk if aligned with 8/25 Fernand 8 / 6 / 11 Aug 5–11 Cat 1–2 (105 mph) Central Gulf (FL Panhandle?) May briefly spike near 8/8 or 8/11 Gabrielle 8 / 2 / 6 Aug 10–17 Cat 1 (80–85 mph) Near Bermuda / open recurver Steady, creative; non-destructive Humberto 3 / 5 / 7 Aug 26–Sep 10 Cat 5 (165–170 mph) Major landfall FL/Carolinas Signature storm; peaks near 9/7 or 9/11 Imelda 8 / 6 / 11 Sep 7–14 TS (60–65 mph) Weak Gulf system Muted by Humberto’s influence Jerry 4 / 3 / 1 Sep 12–21 Cat 1 (70–75 mph) Offshore / East Coast brush Low-impact unless triggered on 9/20 Karen 22 / 6 / 7 Sep 20–27 TS (70 mph) Meandering U.S. East Coast Balanced master number, could linger Lorenzo 6 / 8 / 7 Sep 28–Oct 10 Cat 4 (155 mph) Classic long-track recurver Long lifespan, potential Azores hit Melissa 6 / 6 / 9 Oct 2–18 Cat 5 (165–175 mph) Major East Coast threat Double 6 + 9 in UY 9 = catastrophic Nestor 1 / 11 / 8 Oct 15–18 TS/Cat 1 (70–75 mph) Weak recurver May briefly spike if near 10/20 Olga 8 / 7 / 1 Oct 24–28 TS (55 mph) Dissipates / recurves Historically weak in Atlantic Pablo 1 / 7 / 3 Nov 1–5 TS (55 mph) Azores / high-lat recurver Low ACE; possibly spikes near 11/2 Rebekah 5 / 11 / 3 Nov 6–9 TS (50–55 mph) NE Atlantic, short-lived Soul 11 = brief activity if aligned Sebastien 4 / 2 / 11 Nov 6–9 TS (50–55 mph) Season-ender, recurves Quiet closure with Master influence
Season Totals and Insights
| Category | Forecasted Value |
|---|---|
| Named Storms (NS) | 18 |
| Hurricanes (H) | 10 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) | 4-5 |
| ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) | 165–175 |
| Likely Retired Names | Humberto, Melissa, possibly Erin, Lorenzo |
| High-Risk Impact Zones | Carolinas → New England, Central Gulf Coast, NE Caribbean |
| Numerological Trigger Dates | 8/25, 9/7, 9/11, 9/25, 10/20, 11/2 |
| Peak Season | Late August to Mid-October |
| Analog Years | 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017, 2021 |
| Numerology-Year Synergy | UY 9 = karmic & transformative energy, favors high-impact events with emotional or social repercussions. |
IdaliaHelene
Member
@Atlantic I can DM you for a storm-by-storm analysis to reduce the clutter
Reasoning:
Season Overview
- Universal Year 9 (UY 9):
• Emphasizes transformation, endings, and the clearing of old patterns.
• Heightens emotional and karmic energy—meaning that even “quiet” systems can erupt suddenly when key numerological dates (notably 25s and Master 11s) are activated. - Key Date Theory:
• 25 Dates: The 25th (or dates that add to 25) carry landmark energy. When storms intensify on these days, expect sudden, powerful bursts of energy.
• 11 Dates: Master 11 days (e.g., 9/11, 9/29) are also highly charged, often triggering rapid changes and unexpected intensity. - Analog Years:
• The analogs most often cited are 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017, and 2021. These years, with their particular atmospheric patterns, support our view of a season that is above average with a few truly catastrophic systems. - Overall Seasonal Numbers (Esoteric Forecast):
• Named Storms (NS): 18
• Hurricanes (H): 10
• Major Hurricanes (MH): 5
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): Approximately 165–175
• Note: The highest ACE contributions are expected from Humberto and Melissa, with significant boosts possible when their intensification coincides with 25/11 dates. - Hotspots & Landfall Risk:
• East Coast (Carolinas to Southern New England): High risk; several systems are forecast to brush or make landfall here.
• Central Gulf Coast: Secondary threat, especially from early Gulf systems like Barry and Fernand.
• Northeastern Caribbean: Moderately at risk as systems recurve or approach the region before transitioning. - Retrial of Names:
• Many names (Andrea, Chantal, Dexter, Jerry, Karen, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien) will likely remain as tropical storms or borderline hurricanes, with only a few evolving into the game-changing, high-ACE systems.
Season Synthesis
- Overall Numbers:
• 18 Named Storms
• 10 Hurricanes
• 4-5 Major Hurricanes
• ACE: Approximately 165–175
—with two standout catastrophic systems (Humberto and Melissa) driving a disproportionate share of the energy. - Hotspots:
• East Coast (Carolinas to New England): High risk from systems like Humberto, Melissa, and possibly Karen.
• Central Gulf Coast: Threat from early Gulf systems (Barry, Fernand) and secondary impacts from Imelda.
• Northeastern Caribbean: Potentially affected by recurve systems (Gabrielle, Lorenzo) and indirect effects. - Analog Years:
The chosen analogs (1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017, and 2021) support a season with above-average numbers but with a highly skewed ACE—most energy concentrated in two “winner-takes-all” storms. - Key Numerological Dates:
The 25 and 11 dates (e.g., 8/25, 9/7, 9/11, 9/25, 9/29) are expected to serve as catalysts for explosive intensification. Systems that reach their peak on these dates (especially Humberto, Melissa, and possibly Erin) could deliver disproportionately high impacts. - Metaphysical & Multidimensional Insights:
• UY 9 imbues the season with transformative, sometimes cataclysmic energy.
• Vedic astrology points to influential Saturn, Jupiter, and Mars transits that can boost the intensity of systems formed in the right conditions.
• BaZi (Year of the Wood Snake) emphasizes dynamic growth and transformation, especially in storms with high master numbers (like those with soul urge 11 or personality 11). - Expected Retrial of Names:
Several storms (Andrea, Chantal, Dexter, Jerry, Karen, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien) are forecast to remain tropical storms or borderline hurricanes. The catastrophic impact is reserved for a few key names (Humberto, Melissa, Lorenzo, and potentially Erin and Fernand).
Final Summary
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is predicted—via a synthesis of numerology, Vedic astrology, and BaZi—to be above average in number and ACE, with:- 18 named storms, of which 10 become hurricanes and 5 evolve into major hurricanes.
- A total ACE of approximately 165–175, driven largely by two transformative systems: Humberto (a Category 5 hurricane with explosive intensification on key 25/11 dates) and Melissa (a catastrophic Category 5 with a powerful 6/6/9 profile).
- Critical risk zones include the East Coast (from the Carolinas to Southern New England), the central Gulf Coast, and the northeastern Caribbean.
- Analog years (1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017, 2021) support this view—a season with clustered, high-intensity events amid a broader array of less impactful systems.
- Key dates—the “25s” and “11s”—serve as metaphysical triggers for sudden bursts of intensification in storms that are predisposed (numerologically) to be major players.
Let's put together the years of 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021)
1895 produced 6/2/0 (pre-satellite era)
1916 produced 15/10/5 (pre-satellite era)
1959 produced 14/7/2 (pre-satellite era)
1967 produced 13/6/1 (first analog in the satellite era)
1996 produced 13/9/6 (the season after 1995, as 1995 began the current +AMO)
1999 produced 12/8/5 (The season of Wrong Way Lenny, aka Hurricane Lenny)
2008 produced 16/8/5 (Had Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Paloma)
2011 produced 19/7/4 (Had Hurricane Irene)
2017 produced 17/10/6 (Had Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Nate)
2021 produced 21/7/4 (Had Hurricane Ida and long-lasting Hurricane Sam
These years averaged out 14.6 (Nearest 5 would be 15) NS, 7.4 HU and 3.8 MH (MH going to the nearest 5 would be 4 MH)
We would see an average of 15 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.
1895 produced 6/2/0 (pre-satellite era)
1916 produced 15/10/5 (pre-satellite era)
1959 produced 14/7/2 (pre-satellite era)
1967 produced 13/6/1 (first analog in the satellite era)
1996 produced 13/9/6 (the season after 1995, as 1995 began the current +AMO)
1999 produced 12/8/5 (The season of Wrong Way Lenny, aka Hurricane Lenny)
2008 produced 16/8/5 (Had Hurricane Ike and Hurricane Paloma)
2011 produced 19/7/4 (Had Hurricane Irene)
2017 produced 17/10/6 (Had Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Nate)
2021 produced 21/7/4 (Had Hurricane Ida and long-lasting Hurricane Sam
These years averaged out 14.6 (Nearest 5 would be 15) NS, 7.4 HU and 3.8 MH (MH going to the nearest 5 would be 4 MH)
We would see an average of 15 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes and 5 Major Hurricanes.
IdaliaHelene
Member
which year vibes does my forecast give to you?