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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Mike S

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That track in particular was a beast - straight up the east coast of Florida, starting with a big blow to Miami, then crossing to the Gulf. Total nightmare track.

Not to mention, exiting around where Helene and Debby landed.

Its gone now, but IIRC Helene and Milton were both la la land storms that disappeared and came back.
 

Atlantic

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I know it's not 2025 yet, but... 2025 bingo card anyone?

Blank Bingo Board your Story.png
 

Blountwolf

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GFS has something cooking in the Caribbean in a week.
 

Mike S

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GFS has something cooking in the Caribbean in a week.

It just kind of hangs around off the Yucatan for a few days. Weird.

If that were to pan out, that could dump a lot of rain along the northern coast there.
 

Atlantic

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With the way we had a pre-season SHEM major in the SPAC in the 2006-07 (Xavier) and 2023-24 (Lola), we had two Cat 5's in the Atlantic in 2007 and now in 2024, 2007 ended up with a December TS in TS Olga.

If any year could see a post-season storm, it would be this year.
 

Atlantic

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With the way we had a pre-season SHEM major in the SPAC in the 2006-07 (Xavier) and 2023-24 (Lola), we had two Cat 5's in the Atlantic in 2007 and now in 2024, 2007 ended up with a December TS in TS Olga.

If any year could see a post-season storm, it would be this year.
2007 in the NATL ended up with only two MH's, both of which interestingly enough were both Category 5 (Dean and Felix) otherwise a bunch of Cat 1's happened.

2024 has seemed to be 2007 but with much warmer waters and 4 MH.

Both 2007 and 2024 had one or more Caribbean cruisers, with at least one of them being Category 5 somewhere along its' track.
 

Taylor Campbell

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We have to keep an eye out for what models show to be potential tropical development in the Caribbean mid to late next week. Current analysis shows very low wind shear in that sea. Several of the more recent GFS runs have the system bomb from weak to a major in very short time. A few of the EURO ensembles from the 00z and 12z runs insist that we could see a stronger storm venture toward the Yucatán peninsula.

But wait there’s more, we also have newly designated Invest 94L in the Eastern Atlantic that has support from different operational/ensemble models to trek far west that raises concern for a potential US impact, also while it potentially finds a more favorable environment.
 

Clancy

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We have to keep an eye out for what models show to be potential tropical development in the Caribbean mid to late next week. Current analysis shows very low wind shear in that sea. Several of the more recent GFS runs have the system bomb from weak to a major in very short time. A few of the EURO ensembles from the 00z and 12z runs insist that we could see a stronger storm venture toward the Yucatán peninsula.

But wait there’s more, we also have newly designated Invest 94L in the Eastern Atlantic that has support from different operational/ensemble models to trek west to a spot that raises concern for a potential US impact, also while it potentially finds a more favorable environment.
No más! I really hope the tropical switch turns off soon.
 

Clancy

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AL94 looks to take a problematic path.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished again in associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While the system is currently embedded in an
environment that is not favorable for development over the next
couple of days, the system is forecast to move generally westward to
west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental
conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in
the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Papin
1728829925173.png
 

JPWX

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Odds increased 40% 7 day development for Invest 94L. Definitely another U.S. concern if it can avoid getting tangled up in the Caribbean Islands. 12z Euro TD Probabilities are pretty up there as well with 94L along with another area the Euro seems to be picking up on in the Western Caribbean. This area in the Caribbean was highlighted in the CPC tropical outlook from Tuesday. All the global ensembles are picking up on at least a formidable storm around the 22nd and thereafter. Whether it's 94L or something else entirely from the Caribbean remains to be seen.
 

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JPWX

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The ACE is a good tool to add perspective on how active it's been. Atlantic was outpacing both Pacific basins early, but Western Pacific got ahead when the Atlantic went into inactivity mode mid August. Now, the Atlantic is well above normal and outpacing both Pacific basins again. The Eastern Pacific has remained below normal all season long and the Western Pacific as well. Also, to date, the Western Pacific has had only two tropical systems that have managed to achieve a total ACE of just over 20.
 

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Atlantic

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140 ACE season total so far in October. With the way models think the MJO will reenter a favorable window again in late-Oct and early-Nov, I think we will suppress last year's ACE.

For the next 10 days, here is what we need to watch:
 

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Clancy

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60% odds and new area introduced in W Caribbean Sea.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water
while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen
1728927177385.png
 
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