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2023 Tropical Weather

JPWX

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Good Evening!

The overall Atlantic has been fairly quiet except with short-lived Tropical Storm Arlene a couple weeks ago. We are in the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season and right on cue, we might have a significant system on the horizon.

The GFS (Global Forecast Model) continues to show, for 5 consecutive runs now, a potent hurricane affecting anywhere from Mexico to the central Gulf Coast around the 22nd (give or take a few days). Basically, mid to late month timeframe. Now, the GFS likes to spin up tropical systems willy nilly and it could be doing the same thing here. We'll have to see if the Canadian and Euro forecast models catch on to the same idea. However, there's some legit concerns that this might occur though not as a powerful major hurricane (category 3+). First off, going in favor of this, is that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecasted to go into the favorable phases of 8,1, and 2. These 3 phases are conducive for tropical development in the Atlantic. The other thing favoring is the Western Caribbean and into the south-central Gulf waters are warm. I do note that the northeast Gulf is "cooler than normal". I put that in quotes because the Gulf is still warm enough to support a hurricane/major hurricane. Water temperatures are around 27.5 degrees C (81.5 degrees F) or greater. Again, still warm enough to support a significant storm.

Key Takeaway Points:
* We do not yet know if this will form or not, where it will go, nor how strong it could get.
*Regardless of development or not, this is a sign that if you live along the coast that you should get your hurricane preparedness kit together.
Further Updates on this as new information becomes available.
 

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Taylor Campbell

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Yeah, with the favorable MJO phase and this look on the maps things don't look so bad for potential tropical development in the extended.

tropical.jpeg
wg8shr.GIF
 

Taylor Campbell

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The GFS doesn’t want to rid the idea of tropical system development in the western Caribbean (with significantly noticeable changes by early next week). The model has also shifted to a common theme of a track over Cuba into South Florida.

Meanwhile, there is a strong tropical wave that has come off Africa. More than a few Globals have love for further development in its future as makes its way into the central Atlantic.
 

Equus

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Model solutions (which seem reasonably realistic given the expected environment) placing a decent hurricane northeast of the Leewards in June would make this storm completely unprecedented from a climo perspective; only one storm in the historical records (in 1933) was a hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles in the MDR in June, and that one only very barely
 

JPWX

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The Eastern Pacific basin since 1950 has had only 3 years where nothing formed in May or June. Those are 1953, 1957, and 1964.
 

JPWX

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The HWRF has Invest 92L becoming a major hurricane by next Wednesday or Thursday with a pressure of 958mbar. If so, not only would it be the strongest June storm coming out of the MDR on record but the first major hurricane in June since Audrey (1957).
 

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Equus

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The Eastern Pacific basin since 1950 has had only 3 years where nothing formed in May or June. Those are 1953, 1957, and 1964.
Yeah this is an extremely bizarre super late start to the east Pacific season for sure, ENSO isn't really affecting it super hard yet but not having anything thus far in a Niño year is very strange. The GFS has been showing multiple storms by the end of June in the past couple runs suddenly after being extremely quiet but given the GFS EPac bias over the last few years this remains to be seen
 

JPWX

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If the next system behind TS Bret develops, it'll be the first time on record (going back to 1851) that two storms originated in the MDR in June.
 

Taylor Campbell

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If the next system behind TS Bret develops, it'll be the first time on record (going back to 1851) that two storms originated in the MDR in June.

That’s freakish and appears likely. There’s also the chance that we get the disturbance in the Caribbean named.
 

Clancy

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That second system is gaining steam.
1687275849455.png
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bret, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually showing signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression will likely form during the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Intensity forecast models shifted overnight to keep Brett below hurricane status. The NHC forecast no longer calls for it to become a hurricane.
 
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