2023-24 Political Thread

[bjdeming]

I detest Trump and have never voted for him, but I might this time around out of spite. It's not like my vote in Alabama matters anyway.

My opinion matters much less, since I'm going to sit this one out, but as long as I'm here -- and just for a bit of "equal time" -- the world won't end if Harris gets in.

She might. <rant> I can't be the only one to realize, after that tragic shooting in Butler, that I cared about Trump but only for the younger version of the man who has been in the news most of my life.

The goof, that is, not Mr. "Hail to the Chief" (which of course the goof liked).

In 2016, while voting for Johnson, I figured Trump could, as a business CEO, handle the Oval Office, and he did, but then things went downhill. He didn't want the job in 2020; if he had, he could have turned Oregon "red" because most of the state is that -- a little attention could have mobilized the 20% that didn't vote and I think that would have swung it.

Oregon's progressive reputation is earned but it is not nearly as unanimously progressive as the media would have us believe. I checked it out before coming here in 2014 and it seemed to be instead a healthy "for every action, there is a reaction" kind of place, and what I've seen in the last ten years confirms that (though personally I wish there were more reaction to Portland-area and Salem excesses and occasional just wrong thinking, instead of self-defeating moves like "let's secede and join Idaho" -- face-palm from West Virginia on that ).

Trump 2020 could have won Oregon IMHO and that blue->red conversion would have had a national impact.

But no, he just uttered a few trite "Portland/anarchist" quotes to the media and carried on touring the rest of the country.

He didn't really want it, I suspect.

So there's why I'm sitting this one out: I like Trump as a celebrity but could not be happy with him ever again as president.

Which leaves Harris -- the VP who refused to do her constitutional duty.

Nope.

But if she gets in, that just continues the four years of incompetence that the Democrats have already demonstrated to the world.

That probably depresses dyed-in-the-wool Democrat rank and file as much as the Buchananites and "seizing defeat from the jaws of victory" habit frustrates R&F Republicans and many of us independents.

In 2028 the backstage puppeteers and power-trippers will have far fewer oldsters to exploit.

When they start pulling their shenanigans among people their own age, I suspect national politics will get interesting again. </rant>

 

[Mike S]

Yeah, I'm back to just sitting this one out. At the end of the day, I don't like Trump and don't think he's the conservative people make him out to be, and now his Veep has publicly stated that he would violate the Constitution if he is put in Pence's position to certify the election.

No thank you.

 

[Evan]

Not a whole I want to say here. I've said what needed to be said plenty of times in the past.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...ne-milton-conspiracies-misinformation/680221/

https://www.rollingstone.com/cultur...mation-meteorlogist-death-threats-1235130352/


Both articles may be paywalled. Very simple ways around it if you are a bit internet savvy. The Rolling Stone article extensively quotes James Spann. We live in a post-truth society. Democracy cannot survive or even function in such a world.

I'd like to think most people here know what that means. As much as it pains them, or pains me, I think they know what it means they and I must do. We just don't have a choice. There are bigger principles at play here than the usual "issues" that the media likes to distill our elections down to.

That's it. That's the post. You all know what we have to do. Whether we like it or not.

 

[Mike S]

Not a whole I want to say here. I've said what needed to be said plenty of times in the past.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technol...ne-milton-conspiracies-misinformation/680221/

https://www.rollingstone.com/cultur...mation-meteorlogist-death-threats-1235130352/


Both articles may be paywalled. Very simple ways around it if you are a bit internet savvy. The Rolling Stone article extensively quotes James Spann. We live in a post-truth society. Democracy cannot survive or even function in such a world.

I'd like to think most people here know what that means. As much as it pains them, or pains me, I think they know what it means they and I must do. We just don't have a choice. There are bigger principles at play here than the usual "issues" that the media likes to distill our elections down to.

That's it. That's the post. You all know what we have to do. Whether we like it or not.

I know what I am doing. The choices aren't binary. The deceptive tactics and blatant lies run rampant in both major parties. Both are extremely ignorant people. Both are extremely vile people. Neither are worthy of the office and certainly aren't worthy of my vote. It is far beyond ideology. They simply are not qualified, and both are dangerous with power.

I will either abstain from POTUS or write in a candidate. I wouldn't be voting at all if not for my county commissioner is up for reelection, and he is good for our district.

 

[Jacob]

I'd like to think most people here know what that means. As much as it pains them, or pains me, I think they know what it means they and I must do. We just don't have a choice. There are bigger principles at play here than the usual "issues" that the media likes to distill our elections down to.

That's it. That's the post. You all know what we have to do. Whether we like it or not.

What's funny about this post isn't your somewhat cryptic point, it's that I bet 75% or more of the US population would read this and agree emphatically that you are talking about X or Y candidate/party with this post. Whichever way they see things, that's what they'd assume you meant.

 

[Mike S]

This is the kind of stuff you see when Donald Trump is nominated 3 times in a row instead of a sane candidate like Cruz, Rubio, Haley, DeSantis, Kasich, etc.

MSN

Government officials were forced to flee a North Carolina county amid reported threats of armed civilians out “hunting” for hurricane relief workers.

On Saturday afternoon, the Washington Post reports a U.S. Forest Service official sent an email to several different federal agencies warning “National Guard troops had come across x2 trucks of armed militia saying [they] were out hunting FEMA,” the government body responsible for overseeing emergency response management.

 

[Jacob]

This is the kind of stuff you see when Donald Trump is nominated 3 times in a row instead of a sane candidate like Cruz, Rubio, Haley, DeSantis, Kasich, etc.

MSN

I don't think a more sane candidate is going to keep the crazies from being crazy with the way things spread on social media these days, unfortunately.

Obviously would've liked to have been able to prove that theory wrong or right.

 

[Mike S]

I don't think a more sane candidate is going to keep the crazies from being crazy with the way things spread on social media these days, unfortunately.

Obviously would've liked to have been able to prove that theory wrong or right.

They were empowered 8 years ago. Trump spreading lies doesn't help. But, yeah, the crazies have always been out there.

 

[Jacob]

They were empowered 8 years ago. Trump spreading lies doesn't help. But, yeah, the crazies have always been out there.

Also, fortunately, it sounds like it was a single guy making threats and not actually an armed militia type deal.

 

[Mike S]

Also, fortunately, it sounds like it was a single guy making threats and not actually an armed militia type deal.

Wait.........are you telling me the media inaccurately reported the details of an event? I'm shocked.

 

[bjdeming]

My worry -- back before Trump spoiled it all -- was that the crazies would come after Haley, DeSantis, or other good candidates (and any that might emerge in other parties, too, including the Democrats).

And then some fool went after Trump and there was tragedy in Pennsylvania (am reserving judgment on that Florida golf course thing and haven't looked into the recent armed-man arrest).

The times are weird.

Mike, you inspired me to vote -- probably Haley/DeSantis as write-ins.

 

[Jacob]

It'll be interesting to see how the polling does this year compared to previous years. The polling for 2016/2020 both greatly underestimated Trump and the Republicans, while the polling for the 2018/2022 mid-terms overestimated Republicans.

If polling is anything like 2016/2020, the election will be over by 10PM election night without any drama. If it's like 2018/2022, it's going to be razor thin again either direction.

 

[Evan]

I know what I am doing. The choices aren't binary. The deceptive tactics and blatant lies run rampant in both major parties. Both are extremely ignorant people. Both are extremely vile people. Neither are worthy of the office and certainly aren't worthy of my vote. It is far beyond ideology. They simply are not qualified, and both are dangerous with power.

I will either abstain from POTUS or write in a candidate. I wouldn't be voting at all if not for my county commissioner is up for reelection, and he is good for our district.

Yeah, I'm not talking about voting here, Mike. That's why I was saying this isn't about the usual issues or horse race crap the media likes to distill elections down to. It is much bigger than this election. It isn't as if your vote or my vote is going to swing anything here in this state. Same goes for the majority of people reading this thread. I don't care who people vote for. The issue isn't about picking between one or the other. The issue is that these are the two options we have in the first place.

I'm talking about a post truth society -- in which democracy exists in name only -- and isn't functional. Personally, think both parties need to be burned to the ground. But, it isn't about that -- I am pointing at the need to recognize that the great American experiment has failed. To recognize that we aren't leaving things better off for our children. A recognition that this is a country very much on the precipice of losing many of the unique qualities that has made it the greatest country in the world my entire life.

I don't know if people are ready for that painful conclusion. The outcome of this election truly has very little to do with what I am talking about. One person or another winning isn't going to change the environment that has lead to a preponderance of insane conspiracy theories percolating throughout society. I am referring to the need to make a ghastly admission that this is modern day America. This is what we have become. It is endemic. It is no longer a few crazed voices on the margin.

I would love to be convinced of the alternative. Someone game plan for me how Trump winning, or Kamala winning, puts the genie back into the bottle. It doesn't and it won't. That's the entire crux of it all. I don't have any solutions -- just the simple idea that we have to admit how far we have fallen before we can even dream of getting back to a state of normalcy.

 

[Evan]

What's funny about this post isn't your somewhat cryptic point, it's that I bet 75% or more of the US population would read this and agree emphatically that you are talking about X or Y candidate/party with this post. Whichever way they see things, that's what they'd assume you meant.

I'm not talking about a candidate. There's tens of millions of people who support each one. Those people can all go and delude themselves that voting for one or the other somehow moves the needle back. It doesn't.

Wasn't intending to make my point come off as cryptic. I think the danger of a post truth society is a whole hell of a lot more important than the outcome of an election. Candidates come and go. I think Trump is a lunatic, and I'm hardly a fan of Kamala, Biden, or whomever else the other major party wants to run. Candidates are symptoms. A society doesn't get into this position by having a few bad politicians.

Believe you me, I think Trump is an incredibly dangerous person. But, one person didn't make Imperial Japan. One person didn't make Germany become fascist.

I'm not discounting the influence or power of leaders -- but, I think people are way more comfortable pretending that were it not for Hitler then Germany never goes off the rails. They were almost assuredly headed that way irrespective of his rise to power. Same for Japan. I've made this remark here several times before. Politicians are a reflection of the society they come from. A society has to get to the point where a dangerous, bad, or evil person can obtain and establish influence in the first place for said person to matter.

To tie it all back together, the dangerous cranks, authoritarians, and plain evil people have always existed. What's new is their ability to gain a solid foothold and become a mainstream voice. Alex Jones is way more mainstream today than he was a decade ago. Same goes for numerous anti-semitic figures on the left and right. There's dozens of examples I could list. It is pointless to do so because it just becomes fodder for people to think it is a partisan exercise. The mainstream of American society and its accompanying political system no longer exile these types to the fever swamps. We're a post truth society, as the truth can be bent or distorted however much you like, as long as it aligns with the political outcome you want to see.

If you guys think this is about partisan politics then you aren't ready for this conversation. Trump and Kamala both can go away tomorrow and it doesn't change the trajectory we are on one bit.

 

[Evan]

They were empowered 8 years ago. Trump spreading lies doesn't help. But, yeah, the crazies have always been out there.

You guys are getting really close to what I'm getting at. Trump definitely helped accelerate us toward this path but he didn't put us on it. We were already riding the ride when he took over. Has he been uniquely bad for the country? Of course I believe that. You and Jacob both know I feel that way. But, there's plenty of people who don't agree with that at all, and can't win them over to realizing the bigger problem if he's the focus.

Solving this is much much much harder than this upcoming election going a certain way or not going a certain way.

Sadly, this will be the first election I haven't voted in. Going to be out of the country on election day and have been too busy to get my absentee ballot application done. Technically, I still have a couple of days, and there are down ballot races I would want to have my say in, but it probably isn't happening at this point.

Everyone should still vote and make their voices heard. Not trying to discourage that. I just don't think this election forestalls the inevitable at this point. That's a much longer term problem I don't think the American people are even close to ready to consider let alone confront.

 

[Mike S]

The problem is money. Everyone thinks it is owed to them and no one wants to make the hard decisions on how to distribute only what we have and nothing more.

You and I have had this discussion in the past - I am a full proponent of starting over budget wise, aka, zero-based budgeting. It can't be done overnight, or even in a single year when you consider how far-reaching government spending is. First priority is to take care of our own house first. Address hunger, rebuild and expand infrastructure at a rapid pace, improve health care, etc. We can even still help globally once all of that is done and probably lower taxes in the process.

But no one wants to commit to that.

That is a candidate that I could support. It would also require a veto-proof majority in both Houses more than likely. In other words, the chances of it happening are extremely slim.

 

[bjdeming]

Er, sorry to jump into this excellent debate, but perhaps this weird PNW news is relevant in a symbolic sense (dang, hit the wrong button).

Someone (crazies in the Portland area) set fire to the boxes for ballots (mail-in here), and the built-in fire extinguishers saved all but three in Oregon.

Maybe the US has a built-in fire extinguisher somewhere, too. We've been through some terrible times, but here we are and here in Corvallis (home of Oregon State) I see many faces of the future and they are not despairing.

Just a thought.

 

[Mike S]

Until yesterday, I had no idea that early voting was done via unmanned drop boxes. It makes me rethink my stance on early voting.

 

[notsoencrypted]

Early voting is not done via drop-boxes. Drop-boxes are for returning absentee ballots (or regular ballots in states where ballots are mailed as the normal course of action). Voting via absentee ballots is one way that people can vote early, but when people refer to "early voting," they are generally referring to going somewhere in-person and voting very similarly to how things go on election day (though this varies from state to state).

In Wisconsin, we don't technically have early voting; we have in-person absentee voting, where the folks working in the clerk's office serve as your witness, as absentee balloting in WI has to be witnessed (they see the empty ballot, and then see you sign your envelope with your completed ballot, not like, watch you make your choices over your shoulder). It's really neat because you don't have to mail or use drop boxes to return your absentee ballot, you just hand it over to the clerk/clerk's staff right there and they keep the ballots in their safe location until election day, when they're counted.

As for the drop boxes that have been damaged, there have also been post office boxes damaged. People returning absentee ballots via mail or drop box are, unfortunately, going to have some risks involved (the post office does unfortunately lose ballots to sorting machines and the like from time to time. It's rare, but it can happen). Thankfully, almost every state (I'm not going to say every because I don't know for sure) has a system in place for voters to check the status of their ballots and make sure they have been returned to the proper officials, and if your ballot has not been received, you can reach out and rectify it.

But no, drop boxes are not a necessary component of early voting. They are one way that absentee ballots are returned, and obviously a way that states like Washington and Oregon, which by default deliver ballots to every voter, allow for ballot return.

Edit: I highly, highly recommend anyone with questions about how voting and elections work consider working as a poll worker. Not only will you get to see the process, which is amazing, you get to serve your community in a way that is both vitally important and really fun. It is the most rewarding work I have ever done.

 

[bjdeming]

Just for the record (since I've never seen a system like this until moving to Oregon), they send you a pamphlet with information on candidates and various topics that will be up for a vote. Shortly afterward you get the ballot, which you can either drop in an official box or the mail -- since the attack, I'll always use the ballot box from now on.

I like it because of the in-depth pamphlet which you can just sit down with and think over. No system is perfect, of course, but at least now we know that Oregon's is fireproof.

More generally, there seems to be a sea change coming -- so many papers aren't endorsing candidates like Harris and Trump this year, focusing on local issues and other things closer to home instead. And they make no bones about it: it's for maintaining public trust (bottom line: income, but there's nothing wrong with that PLUS I think there is also still quite a bit of something like a Deadline USA spirit still alive and kicking in the Fourth Estate generally).