2023-24 Political Thread

[Mike S]

More generally, there seems to be a sea change coming -- so many papers aren't endorsing candidates like Harris and Trump this year, focusing on local issues and other things closer to home instead. And they make no bones about it: it's for maintaining public trust (bottom line: income, but there's nothing wrong with that PLUS I think there is also still quite a bit of something like a Deadline USA spirit still alive and kicking in the Fourth Estate generally).

Ask the WaPo about the impact of remaining neutral. People are ridiculous.

 

[bjdeming]

Ask the WaPo about the impact of remaining neutral. People are ridiculous.

Bezos wouldn't return my calls, so I asked Wikipedia instead, and checked the latest news I could find on cancellations online.

Assuming that most of the print subscribers are government offices, libraries, etc., those ~250 million cancellations thus far have left 2.25 million subscribers hanging in there.

This article got me thinking in the first place -- it's not just the WaPo.

 

[Mike S]

Bezos wouldn't return my calls, so I asked Wikipedia instead, and checked the latest news I could find on cancellations online.

Assuming that most of the print subscribers are government offices, libraries, etc., those ~250 million cancellations thus far have left 2.25 million subscribers hanging in there.

This article got me thinking in the first place -- it's not just the WaPo.

I mean, this is a good thing, right? At least I think so.

Next, start reporting the news without a slant.

 

[Evan]

A Trump landslide seems like the most likely scenario at this point. GOP turnout seems extremely high.

 

[Jacob]

The summary so far I’m getting from Twitter is

Everything looks good for the Republicans
Everything looks terrible for the Republicans
Everything looks good for the Democrats
Everything looks terrible for the Democrats

 

[Jacob]

On a different note, I hate the trickle of information you get about early vote turnouts, vote by registration affiliation, etc.

We should know exactly 0 until the polls close.

 

[Mike S]

I live in a Huntsville suburn that voted about 70% Trump in the past and at 9:30am and 2:30pm, the line was wrapped around the building. We'll head back down around 6pm.

 

[Evan]

I was able to vote this morning despite my flight overseas. Now on a plane to Europe. Going to be interesting when I wake up to see the results. Again, everything I've seen points to a Trump victory.

 

[Evan]

Like I said...Trump landslide. GOP simply won voters with better messaging and had much better turnout.

 

[TH2002]

Looks like it's coming down to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - if Trump wins just one of them, the election is more or less his.

edit: if Arizona goes Dem, Trump would have to win both of them to win the election.

 

[Evan]

Looks like it's coming down to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - if Trump wins just one of them, the election is more or less his.

edit: if Arizona goes Dem, Trump would have to win both of them to win the election.

It's s been over for hours now. It's not even remotely close. Look at New Jersey, Rhode Island, and even Illinois. The margins in WI/PA/MI are much better than when Trump won in 2016. Trump is extremely likely to also win the popular vote. There's simply no scenario where that happens and Harris even gets close to winning the Electoral College.

Like him or hate him, Donald Trump has been re-elected as POTUS. It is what it is.

 

[TH2002]

It's s been over for hours now. It's not even remotely close. Look at New Jersey, Rhode Island, and even Illinois. The margins in WI/PA/MI are much better than when Trump won in 2016. Trump is extremely likely to also win the popular vote. There's simply no scenario where that happens and Harris even gets close to winning the Electoral College.

Like him or hate him, Donald Trump has been re-elected as POTUS. It is what it is.

Prove me wrong in a few hours, but I think you're over-exaggerating the 'landslide' bit. It's not going to be a landslide victory, but probably not as close as the media painted it out to be, either.

 

[Evan]

Prove me wrong in a few hours, but I think you're over-exaggerating the 'landslide' bit. It's not going to be a landslide victory, but probably not as close as the media painted it out to be, either.

For a Republican, in the past couple of decades, it is a landslide. First Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. 312 electoral college votes. New Hampshire is at a margin where it is a swing state again. Heck, NJ is at under a 5% margin and Virginia had just as dramatic of a swing. Huge losses in the Senate (that won't be easily reversed due to the power and financial benefits of being an incumbent), and very very likely the GOP kept control of the House.

2016 has often been chalked up to Clinton's high unpopularity and seen essentially as a one-off accident. Nothing is accidental about this election. It is the most consequential election of my lifetime. The losing party and candidate doesn't have any external forces they can easily blame this time. Russia, the Comey letter, or Wikileaks were simply not significant factors. Russia did their typical meddling which had little to no impact.

With all that said, I don't think Trump winning (or Harris winning if she had) fundamentally changes the negative path this country was already on. We are our own worst enemies.

 

[Mike S]

The Democrats will spend the next few days saying what they always say...
- We didn't get our message out (they did, people just rejected it)
- The voters are just too dumb to know what's good for them (people get tired of being told how dumb/racist/phobic they are)
- The media is against us (they truly believe this)

I've said this all along, I've probably said it in the thread and others probably have as well, but whichever party was to lose this election had no one to blame but themselves. Both ran awful candidates. Trump wears on people very quickly. Harris was so unliked by her own party, she had to drop out of the race extremely early in 2020, and was only in this spot because the DNC staged a coup when it became apparent Biden couldn't win (I don't want to hear the words "January 6th" every again, though I think Pence is an American hero for upholding his Constitutional duties).

Run better candidates, and work to appeal to a broader number of voters instead of the extremes.

 

[Mike S]

More thoughts:

-Abortion isn't quite the issue it was thought to be. That was supposed to guarantee a Harris victory
-The cost of living and border security are the two key issues to the majority of people in this country
-A balanced budget and the national debt still not getting the attention it deserves, and is why I voted for Chase Oliver.

 

[Tanner]

More thoughts:

-Abortion isn't quite the issue it was thought to be. That was supposed to guarantee a Harris victory
-The cost of living and border security are the two key issues to the majority of people in this country
-A balanced budget and the national debt still not getting the attention it deserves, and is why I voted for Chase Oliver.

I’m surprised healthcare isn’t a bigger topic.

 

[TH2002]

For a Republican, in the past couple of decades, it is a landslide. First Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. 312 electoral college votes. New Hampshire is at a margin where it is a swing state again. Heck, NJ is at under a 5% margin and Virginia had just as dramatic of a swing. Huge losses in the Senate (that won't be easily reversed due to the power and financial benefits of being an incumbent), and very very likely the GOP kept control of the House.

2016 has often been chalked up to Clinton's high unpopularity and seen essentially as a one-off accident. Nothing is accidental about this election. It is the most consequential election of my lifetime. The losing party and candidate doesn't have any external forces they can easily blame this time. Russia, the Comey letter, or Wikileaks were simply not significant factors. Russia did their typical meddling which had little to no impact.

With all that said, I don't think Trump winning (or Harris winning if she had) fundamentally changes the negative path this country was already on. We are our own worst enemies.

Even though I’ve never talked about my political views on this forum, might as well get out of the way that I am not, nor was I ever a supporter of Kamala Harris. But with that said, I do think the GOP could have done much better than Donald Trump.

Perhaps most surprising is that Trump won not only the electoral college, but the popular vote as well.

 

[Mike S]

I’m surprised healthcare isn’t a bigger topic.

Yeah, it wasn't really discussed as much as in the past. I don't know why because what we're doing hasn't improved at all.

 

[Mike S]

Bottom line.........Trump has a mandate. He wins the electoral college, the popular vote and flips the Senate. Even if the GOP loses control of the House, which the markets are saying right now that they won't, he still has a mandate. Voters were picking up what he's putting down and they expect action. If only he could be trusted to follow through with what he says.....

 

[bjdeming]

Perhaps most surprising is that Trump won not only the electoral college, but the popular vote as well.

Biden's obvious senility and Harris's refusal to do her constitutional duty and assume temporary leadership of this country because of Biden's incapacity had a lot to do with the popular vote going to Trump.

That was her big chance to show us she had leadership potential, and she blew it. Trump OTOH is a known quantity, and the world is a scarier place than usual right now.

That's my white perspective. The Democrats' failure to respond positively to the Black Lives Matter statement calling for a virtual primary also was amazing -- not that I followed it closely after the statement but (TBH from headline-skimming) it looked like there was a white woman official who said Harris won "the primary" and an endorsement for Harris from what has always looked to me like an astroturfed gun control group (March For Our Lives).

"Their very first endorsement," per headlines afterwards. And nothing about the BLM statement or allowing people some say in the party's new presidential candidate appeared in the headlines ever again.

I don't have a dog in that particular hunt, and as mentioned, didn't follow up, but if things actually went down anything like that, it was so stupid. There are better ways to deal with such a hot issue than (presumably) ignore it on the principle of "who else will they vote for, Trump?".

Maybe they won't vote at all. Maybe other interests won't, either, for one reason or another -- and maybe younger voters might not care at all about these 20th-century political antics (although they should).

I wonder what general voter turn-out data will show.