AJS
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I’m not too impressed either, but I have learned in set ups like this to never let my guard down as anything can happen.
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2/15/25 SE Severe Threat
- Thread starter Jason Mills
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STP on its own should not be used for tornado forecasting, especially in cases such as these where a linear mode may be dominant. But, I often find it useful for trends, and boy is that a concerning trend on the last few HRRR runs.
Starting to think any embedded/semi-discrete supercell from E AR up into S TN could produce a pretty intense tornado...
tennessee storm chaser
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Yeah that’s nasty trend for sure
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New D1 is 15 mins late and counting. Makes me think there was a lot of discussion on whether or not to add a MDT.
I feel like in this case, and when it comes to a lot of the chaser sentiments I see, this answer is geared towards the prospect of discrete, photogenic tornadoes. This setup doesn't look to offer that, at least not in abundance. Spin-ups just don't get those chaser juices flowing I think.
CheeselandSkies
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Cyclonic Paracosm
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enh
I'm pretty sure Reed wakes up in the middle of the night screaming "OUTBREAK! CONFLUENCE BANDS! MAJOR WEDGE POTENTIAL HERE."
Ledian
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45% damaging wind risk introduced in this outlook, and Pontotoc's in it. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyy 
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Gonna be a long night for both of us.45% damaging wind risk introduced in this outlook, and Pontotoc's in it. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Just glad there is a minimal hail risk.
TornadoFan
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TornadoFan
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Cyclonic Paracosm
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yup, he said in a serve rI am in that a mdt is possible in the mid day update from the overpreforming thermodynamics
cheestaysfly
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I live right in that red zone! Don't like that one bit!
Main change at 1630Z is the addition of a 45% wind contour. SPC anticipates potentially prolific wind threat as the QLCS consolidates. NCAR's CAM analysis models, which I like to use as an additional reference point, maintains strong probabilities for damaging winds, and a secondary threat of tornadoes, well into the night all the way through the morning Sunday. CAM suites still suggest a potent QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat, and HRRR has picked up on some possible discrete activity just out ahead of the QLCS. Not sure it amounts to a meaningful threat, but the signal is there. Regardless of the threat for long-tracked tornadoes, everyone should be prepared for severe storms this evening through Sunday morning in the Deep South.
Ledian
Member
Oh man, now Aberdeen's NOAA radio station is offline. Hopefully the outage is quickly resolved
Let's just hope no radar sites go down as well.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Interesting that they added a 45% wind contour, but removed the hatched area for wind. Had they left it in, any overlap between the two would have led to a MDT upgrade.
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69/63 in Starkville already. It feels like an armpit over here.
Pretty crazy temperature shift from yesterday. High is expected to be in the mid 70s after only reaching the mid 40s yesterday.
Pretty crazy temperature shift from yesterday. High is expected to be in the mid 70s after only reaching the mid 40s yesterday.
TornadoFan
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