2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

warneagle said:
yeah still not super impressed with the OWS potential with this one, weak forcing, weak surface heating, etc. could be a nasty QLCS though.
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I’m not too impressed either, but I have learned in set ups like this to never let my guard down as anything can happen.
 
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STP on its own should not be used for tornado forecasting, especially in cases such as these where a linear mode may be dominant. But, I often find it useful for trends, and boy is that a concerning trend on the last few HRRR runs.

Starting to think any embedded/semi-discrete supercell from E AR up into S TN could produce a pretty intense tornado...
 
UK_EF4 said:
View attachment 33791

STP on its own should not be used for tornado forecasting, especially in cases such as these where a linear mode may be dominant. But, I often find it useful for trends, and boy is that a concerning trend on the last few HRRR runs.

Starting to think any embedded/semi-discrete supercell from E AR up into S TN could produce a pretty intense tornado...
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Yeah that’s nasty trend for sure
 
Kds86z said:
Curious as Trey doesn’t see a bullish tornado threat compared to SPC. He’s been right before..View attachment 33787
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I feel like in this case, and when it comes to a lot of the chaser sentiments I see, this answer is geared towards the prospect of discrete, photogenic tornadoes. This setup doesn't look to offer that, at least not in abundance. Spin-ups just don't get those chaser juices flowing I think.
 
Clancy said:
I feel like in this case, and when it comes to a lot of the chaser sentiments I see, this answer is geared towards the prospect of discrete, photogenic tornadoes. This setup doesn't look to offer that, at least not in abundance. Spin-ups just don't get those chaser juices flowing I think.
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Unless you're Reed.

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Main change at 1630Z is the addition of a 45% wind contour. SPC anticipates potentially prolific wind threat as the QLCS consolidates. NCAR's CAM analysis models, which I like to use as an additional reference point, maintains strong probabilities for damaging winds, and a secondary threat of tornadoes, well into the night all the way through the morning Sunday. CAM suites still suggest a potent QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat, and HRRR has picked up on some possible discrete activity just out ahead of the QLCS. Not sure it amounts to a meaningful threat, but the signal is there. Regardless of the threat for long-tracked tornadoes, everyone should be prepared for severe storms this evening through Sunday morning in the Deep South.
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