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Severe Weather 2026

18Z GFS is pretty spicy for Sunday the 28th. Double-barrel 989/987-mb surface lows and potent, backed LLJ into the northern Plains. Of course it's a deterministic run a week out so it can and will change, but the general look as been there for at least a couple days' worth of runs.
 
Brice W said:
View attachment 53879
View attachment 53880
Looks like something is definitely on the table for Sunday/Monday (28th/29th)
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Let’s good, but that trough positioning (the fact that the jet streak is far north of the surface low) and it’s orientation over the warm sector is garbage.
To get something other than linear slop near the surface low and a blue sky snooze fast to the south, that trough would need to be lower amplitude and more negatively tilted to place the jet streak over the warm sector and more orthogonal to the PBL wind vector.
That way, we’ll have a stronger LLJ and a discrete storm mode spanning the majority of the dry line, which looks like it will have the rare north/south orientation.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Let’s good, but that trough positioning (the fact that the jet streak is far north of the surface low) and it’s orientation over the warm sector is garbage.
To get something other than linear slop near the surface low and a blue sky snooze fast to the south, that trough would need to be lower amplitude and more negatively tilted to place the jet streak over the warm sector and more orthogonal to the PBL wind vector.
That way, we’ll have a stronger LLJ and a discrete storm mode spanning the majority of the dry line, which looks like it will have the rare north/south orientation.
Click to expand...
Oh yeah I agree 100% but I think the thermodynamic side of the equation is impressive. Even if the trough isn’t ideally configured for a broad discrete outbreak, we’re still looking at a large warm sector with widespread 70+ dewpoints and substantial instability. Just something to keep an eye on. It doesn’t look like anything too crazy as of now.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Let’s good, but that trough positioning (the fact that the jet streak is far north of the surface low) and it’s orientation over the warm sector is garbage.
To get something other than linear slop near the surface low and a blue sky snooze fast to the south, that trough would need to be lower amplitude and more negatively tilted to place the jet streak over the warm sector and more orthogonal to the PBL wind vector.
That way, we’ll have a stronger LLJ and a discrete storm mode spanning the majority of the dry line, which looks like it will have the rare north/south orientation.
Click to expand...

Yeah, been noticing that on recent runs. It's like the ridge amplifies and shoves the jet streak way off to the northwest. Also leaves most of the warm sector stuck in a rising heights regime.

Go figure, because this is the one event this month I might have been able to chase.
 
WeatherMan said:
I had lots af bad thunder storm warnings.

Lost power nearly every day.
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Ugh. I feel for you. Where we are, we've had to deal with occasional power surges and even failures during bad weather (of both the "severe" and "winter" variety). A couple of months ago we ended up installing an outdoor emergency generator that's designed to kick in immediately during a power surge. It's powerful enough to allow all the electrical appliances in our house to keep running without interruption.

I don't know how expensive it could be, but I would recommend taking a look through at least the more basic models that could power lights (if not everything hooked into the system), see what your options are on that front, and go from there.
 
The 3km nam nukes Kansas off the map.
500mb jet streak is orthogonal to the LLJ, which is a little weak at 20-40knots, but still doable.
The dryline is so diffuse it’s hard to make out, it gets over mixed to oblivion in Texas and Oklahoma, but morning convection and cloud cover will likely keep Kansas from that same fate.
Hard to see a storm mode other than discrete/semi discrete occurring here, and kinematics are vile.
The biggest problem is the agreement between the cams themselves, but ignoring them and just looking at the Synoptics at face value, storms along the triple point, riding the warm front, and perhaps some OWS in Kansas, all have sig tor potential.
 
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