Kory
Member
Looking at an ensemble suite is useless as the event is ongoing. I could understand if he were picking the best member or two when it comes to initialization, but posting a whole plume is kinda of pointless at this range.
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Winter WX Snow Threat on Tuesday (Jan 16, 2018)
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
-
- Tags
- snow
jmills
Member
The issue isn't how much we get, it's the fact that the roads are so cold that they will become a skating rink very quickly.
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- #103
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- Fayetteville, AR
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I’m out and about in Huntsville. Follow along if you do the twitter thing. Secondary roads starting to get a bit slippery.
Kory
Member
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1047 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018
.UPDATE...
Morning Update.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Water vapor imagery and global model data is in good agreement in
a sharp positively-tilted trough extending from Michigan and
extending southwest across northern Indiana through central
Illinois and into central Missouri and further extends southwest
into central Oklahoma.
Toward the surface, an extensive arctic front just north of Mobile
to near Prattville further northeast to near Alexander City and
was continuing to slide southeast.
Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across all
but our southeast counties, roughly from Montgomery to Alexander
City and points southeast, where mostly sunny skies were observed.
Radar data shows a large, extensive precipitation shield
consisting mostly of snow that extends from west-central
Mississippi northeast across our west-central, northwest and
northern counties and extends further north and east to include
much of far northern Alabama and into central and eastern
Tennessee.
05
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Despite surface temperatures that have risen above freezing over
the past few hours roughly along and southeast of the Interstate
59 corridor we continue to observe noticable temperature decreases
across our west-central and northwest counties as the
precipitation has started to fall. The main concern continues to
be the risk of snow melting when it comes into contact with road
surfaces and then the moisture will freeze onto the pavement as
temperatures fall below freezing, creating icy patches and slick
spots on roadways. A winter weather advisory remains in effect as
snow will continue affect our northwest counties with snow
eventually impacting more of our central counties early this
afternoon along with portions of our south and eastern counties
this afternoon and evening.
Changes in the overall thinking is not huge. The one difference
is that the area of rain that is developing over southwestern
AL/southeastern MS will move into the southeast ahead of the front
and may provide a brief window of rain before the snow starts.
This will do two things. One it will moisten the overall column
and two it will begin to cool down the airmass ahead of the Arctic
air.
So we are still expecting a significant impact to the area even with
light amounts (2 inches or less). This a slow moving band and will
take almost sort of a staircase approach through the state.
Currently watching another band developing further south in MS
and this will then slide east into the area.
The approaching vort max at 500mb appears very impressive this
afternoon into tonight and will have an opportunity to enhance the
snow band as it moves east of I-59. PWAT values will surge in
this zone, and additional lift could result in snowfall amounts
exceeding our current forecast. The ECMWF, several European
Ensemble members, and the Regional Canadian indicate the potential
for 2-4 inch amounts along and east of I-59 all the way to our
eastern and southern borders. This scenario will be monitored for
a possible upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Impacts could be
significant across our entire forecast area due to temperatures
falling into the 20s and teens as the snow falls. A Wind Chill
Advisory has been issued for the entire area for tonight and
Wednesday morning for wind chills of 5 above zero to 5 below zero.
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1047 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018
.UPDATE...
Morning Update.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Water vapor imagery and global model data is in good agreement in
a sharp positively-tilted trough extending from Michigan and
extending southwest across northern Indiana through central
Illinois and into central Missouri and further extends southwest
into central Oklahoma.
Toward the surface, an extensive arctic front just north of Mobile
to near Prattville further northeast to near Alexander City and
was continuing to slide southeast.
Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across all
but our southeast counties, roughly from Montgomery to Alexander
City and points southeast, where mostly sunny skies were observed.
Radar data shows a large, extensive precipitation shield
consisting mostly of snow that extends from west-central
Mississippi northeast across our west-central, northwest and
northern counties and extends further north and east to include
much of far northern Alabama and into central and eastern
Tennessee.
05
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Despite surface temperatures that have risen above freezing over
the past few hours roughly along and southeast of the Interstate
59 corridor we continue to observe noticable temperature decreases
across our west-central and northwest counties as the
precipitation has started to fall. The main concern continues to
be the risk of snow melting when it comes into contact with road
surfaces and then the moisture will freeze onto the pavement as
temperatures fall below freezing, creating icy patches and slick
spots on roadways. A winter weather advisory remains in effect as
snow will continue affect our northwest counties with snow
eventually impacting more of our central counties early this
afternoon along with portions of our south and eastern counties
this afternoon and evening.
Changes in the overall thinking is not huge. The one difference
is that the area of rain that is developing over southwestern
AL/southeastern MS will move into the southeast ahead of the front
and may provide a brief window of rain before the snow starts.
This will do two things. One it will moisten the overall column
and two it will begin to cool down the airmass ahead of the Arctic
air.
So we are still expecting a significant impact to the area even with
light amounts (2 inches or less). This a slow moving band and will
take almost sort of a staircase approach through the state.
Currently watching another band developing further south in MS
and this will then slide east into the area.
The approaching vort max at 500mb appears very impressive this
afternoon into tonight and will have an opportunity to enhance the
snow band as it moves east of I-59. PWAT values will surge in
this zone, and additional lift could result in snowfall amounts
exceeding our current forecast. The ECMWF, several European
Ensemble members, and the Regional Canadian indicate the potential
for 2-4 inch amounts along and east of I-59 all the way to our
eastern and southern borders. This scenario will be monitored for
a possible upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning. Impacts could be
significant across our entire forecast area due to temperatures
falling into the 20s and teens as the snow falls. A Wind Chill
Advisory has been issued for the entire area for tonight and
Wednesday morning for wind chills of 5 above zero to 5 below zero.
Bama Ravens
Member
Any thinking that there might be a hole or stretch of places that don’t get much? Like places south and east of the current snow, but that will be north and west of the heavier snow later today
Pluviophile
Member
Sun is out in Pelham, Ala. *sigh*
David in SW Blount
Member
Only "spitting" snow here so far, 25 miles north of downtown Birmingham.
Bama Ravens
Member
Not super optimistic for my location right now. Snow struggling to push east.
darkskys25
Member
Its litterally falling apart. This was well modeled.
TuckerTerry
Member
Kory
Member
It's like Groundhog's Day every snow event that doesn't start before noon.
Kory
Member
The moisture axis from 500-700mb is still over us. As the base of the trough gets closer and swings through, that band will shift east and fill in. Widespread 0.5-1.5" of snow per the HRRR...give it time folks.
- Moderator
- #115
Heaviest snow of the event here. Flakes have gotten bigger and seem to have a little more moisture content as to being more powdery. I haven't measured but it looks like around an inch. This band is really dumping right now.
- Moderator
- #116
I've been out examining the snow in Huntsville, the flakes are absolutely beautiful under a microscope. When we get good snow events they're often clumpy but these flakes are just like the ones you see in those high-res images online. Very pretty 
NorthBamaWX
Member
[11:46am] KHTX Radar is currently out of service. Due to weather conditions, the repairs will not be completed until Wednesday or Thursday.
Kory
Member
That band is definitely making eastward progression. Flurries beginning in Tuscaloosa. Air temps still lagging...only 32. This should change as snow begins to pick up.
TuckerTerry
Member
Kory ... LOL!
David in SW Blount
Member
LOL, well he was Tweeting the snow would arrive in the Birmingham metro around 10, so he has to understand that not everyone is glued to radar and knows that the leading edge vaporized on approach.