Archive Historic Harvey (Tropical Depression)

[WesL]

are those objects in the water for AF305 the places where the dropsondes were released?

Yes sir.

 

[JayF]

Miss Piggy is headed that way

 

[WesL]

Watching some of the radar loops it feels like it is already starting to stall.

 

[WesL]

What's the projected path after the stall? Will it strengthens if it bounces back in the gulf and move up the coast toward Louisiana?


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Really tough to say. Here is the spaghetti models courtesy of South Florida Water Management District. The models show a slight bounce up the eastern gulf coast of Texas and western Louisana and then a turn inland.

NHC center forecast suggests that that move east and inland doesn't occur until Sunday at 7pm and it could be still a tropical storm.

 

[JayF]

Watching some of the radar loops it feels like it is already starting to stall.

That is where a lot of the rainfall in Texas is going to come from. When Harvey stalls it is just going to dump a ton of rain.

 

[WesL]

Found this a bit ago. This is from yesterday from NOAA2 aka N42RF aka Kermit. Pretty intense. For the record, a ride with these guys or the AF guys is on my bucket list.
https://www.omao.noaa.gov/find/media/video/noaa-hurricane-hunter-flight-hurricane-harvey-side-view

 

[JayF]

Found this a bit ago. This is from yesterday from NOAA2 aka N42RF aka Kermit. Pretty intense. For the record, a ride with these guys or the AF guys is on my bucket list.
https://www.omao.noaa.gov/find/media/video/noaa-hurricane-hunter-flight-hurricane-harvey-side-view

Hey if you can pull that off, I want to go. I have a pair of Titans tickets to any regular season game for you, if you do. ;-)

 

[akt1985]

The strengthening of Harvey has slowed down. It wouldn't surprise me if intensity forecasts come down from the NHC.

 

[TWBot]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AND WATER LEVELS RISING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 96.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near
latitude 27.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Harvey is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), but its forward speed is
expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas
coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander
near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to
become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A wind gust of 56 mph was recently reported at the
Corpus Christi Naval Air Station. In addition, a wind gust of 53
mph was reported at Port Aransas, and a gust to 51 mph was measured
at the Bob Hall Pier near Corpus Christi. A sustained wind of 56
mph and a gust to 69 mph were measured by NOAA buoy 42020.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA plane
is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall
of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: All last-minute preparations should be rushed to completion
since tropical storm conditions are now occurring in portions of the
hurricane and tropical storm warning areas. Hurricane conditions
are likely to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible later today through
Saturday near the middle and upper Texas coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Continue reading...

 

[Mike S]

very slight - 2mb - pressure drop from the last advisory

 

[Mike S]

Quick rewind back to Monday. ~200 miles north at 96 hours isn't too bad is it? Timing and pressure pretty dang close.

Ummm GFS just raised the stakes

 

[WesL]

Quick rewind back to Monday. ~200 miles north at 96 miles isn't too bad is it? Timing and pressure pretty dang close.

GFS gets a nod for that one.

 

[WesL]

NOAA2 aka Kermit heading back into the eye. This is from their onboard radar.

Full Size Interactive - http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/r...8-25-181116-26.971863N-96.069664W-NOAA-2-.kmz

 

[WesL]

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[StormStalker]

Seeing a lot of lightning in the eastern eye wall on radar.

 

[WesL]

AF307 found max surface winds at 109.1mph and low pressure of 942.0mb on the last pass.

 

[WesL]

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 147 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located just south of Galveston Island, moving
northwest at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Galveston Island West End, Galveston Causeway, Texas City,
Dickinson, La Marque, Santa Fe, Hitchcock, Galveston Pier 21, Bayou
Vista, Tiki Island, Pelican Island, San Leon, Schlitterbahn,
Scholes Field, The Strand, Port Bolivar, Offatts Bayou, Galveston
Pleasure Pier, Moody Gardens and Bacliff.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

 

[TornadoFan]

NHC just upgraded Harvey to a Category 3 with 120 mph winds.

 

[jasonechols]

Give the models credit. They appear to be doing a good job to this point of progging this storm.

 

[WesL]

Looks like KIII's stream has gone down from the broadcast side of the operation. The stream is still running just nothing being broadcast.