Archive Former Major Hurricane Irma

[SouthernStorms]

Hopefully The mountains in Cuba can weaken it some.

Sometimes I think God put Cuba there just to Weaken Atlantic Hurricanes.

 

[Jacob]

Does anyone see any factor that could weaken this storm from here to the coast other than going further south than expected and impacting the mountains of Hispaniola? Because I'm not seeing anything, and I want to see something.

Best case for the US is a scenario about like Euro had last night, IMO. It has it over Cuba for >24 hours, could be enough to disrupt the core and keep it from being a 4/5 at US landfall.

Granted, the Euro blew it back up once it moved off of Cuba, but if it can do enough damage to the inner core of the storm, it might not be able to re-strengthen like that.

 

[SouthernStorms]

What I find interesting is that the mets keep saying this thing is going to turn north.... It wont make it into the gulf... most say it will go straight through the middle of Florida.

But..

Every new model forecast that comes out keeps pushing it west...west.. west... Perhaps it will still make that sudden turn north but I am feeling a little skeptical.

 

[Jacob]

Heh, just wanted to post this to get a laugh. I think this model *might* have an issue with intensity forecasts.

 

[TuckerTerry]

 

[Mike S]

Best case for the US is a scenario about like Euro had last night, IMO. It has it over Cuba for >24 hours, could be enough to disrupt the core and keep it from being a 4/5 at US landfall.

Granted, the Euro blew it back up once it moved off of Cuba, but if it can do enough damage to the inner core of the storm, it might not be able to re-strengthen like that.

I think I know the answer to this, but the models don't account for terrain like Cuba do they? Land is land is land as far as the models are concerned is what I am thinking.

 

[bingcrosbyb]

Latest Advisory:

Winds: 180mph
Pressure: 931mb

 

[Brent]

We are witnessing history

Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

Make that 185 mph

 

[Tyler Penland]

Make that 185 mph

Imagine what the winds are gusting to at the surface. Amazing.

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[TuckerTerry]

Pressure down to 926, too.

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

I wonder if the GFS wasn't coo coo after all

 

[SouthernStorms]

Just a little off topic observation. There is not as much posting on here as in years past. Everyone on vacation? Used to have tons of pages on this by now.

 

[Tyler Penland]

Just a little off topic observation. There is not as much posting on here as in years past. Everyone on vacation? Used to have tons of pages on this by now.

The crash killed the member base unfortunately. It's going back up, though. Tell all your friends to come here.

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[WesL]

The crash killed the member base unfortunately. It's going back up, though. Tell all your friends to come here.

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By me... I mean TW. Tell them all far and wide!

Now back to Irma this just in from NASA_SPORT

 

[TuckerTerry]

Is there any one model that's better than another at handling this type of storm?

 

[Pluviophile]

Just a little off topic observation. There is not as much posting on here as in years past. Everyone on vacation? Used to have tons of pages on this by now.

I'm here... Lurking and reading EVERYTHING everyone is posting. I don't have much to add to the conversation, but be assured that people are reading everything you post. Please keep the info coming!

 

[Tyler Penland]

Is there any one model that's better

The euro/eps. This goes for pretty much every storm with the occasional exception.


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[TuckerTerry]

The euro/eps. This goes for pretty much every storm with the occasional exception.


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Thanks ...

Spann just posted the 12Z Euro run and it's astonishing.

 

[WesL]

Spann just posted the 12Z Euro run and it's astonishing.

You can actually post the URL of the Twitter post and it will embed it here on the forum...