Archive Former Major Hurricane Irma

[Tyler Penland]

Sure enough, makes a hard right and doesn't make landfall anywhere on this run. Would give quite a few a good scare on the east coast in the process though.

Very Matthew-ish though with a harder right hand turn.

EPS mean is a Florida landfall.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

18z tropical models shifted south, and west.

 

[akt1985]

I think the GFS has Irma turning away from Florida at the last minute like Matthew did.

 

[GTWXAlum]

0z GFS taken verbatim would be a catastrophe for most of the Florida peninsula.

Realistically though, the op shifted south and west again

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

0z GFS taken verbatim would be a catastrophe for most of the Florida peninsula.

Realistically though, the op shifted south and west again

Another south west shift.... Where does that place landfall now?

 

[akt1985]

Some models have Irma going over the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. If that happens, maybe it won't be as bad when it hits Florida.

 

[bingcrosbyb]

Is this the latest GFS op?

 

[Tyler Penland]

Is this the latest GFS op?

Great Scott! This is heavy!


But yes it is. Winds up turning north and hitting Charlotte eventually with strong winds still.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk

 

[MattW]

Interesting, now the Gulf is in-play. Yesterday, there wasn't a model west of Miami, now there's some extreme outliers as far west as New Orleans.

 

[bingcrosbyb]

Now category 4 with 130 mph winds. Winds increasing after pressure drop. Still heading west.

 

[GTWXAlum]

Over 75% of the Euro ensembles from the 12z run have Irma either making landfall or bring it close enough to the Florida/other parts of the east coast for significant impacts. We'll see where things go from here..

 

[akt1985]

I thought about what would weather forums and social media be like if a hurricane today took a similar path to Donna in 1960. We may be about to find out.

 

[Timhsv]

Anyone know or have a site that correlates barometric pressure to a Hurricane's wind speeds and for every 10mb increase is how much?
The 18Z GFS having a 890-888mb center is so unnerving

Thank you

 

[Jacob]

Anyone know or have a site that correlates barometric pressure to a Hurricane's wind speeds and for every 10mb increase is how much?
The 18Z GFS having a 890-888mb center is so unnerving

Thank you

The GFS since the last upgrade this summer greatly overdoes pressure, so the extreme intensity that the GFS has shown isn't likely to occur.

 

[TuckerTerry]

Looks as though Irma is now a Cat 5.

000
WTNT61 KNHC 051147
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
745 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...HURRICANE IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Irma has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory
will be issued at 800 AM AST (1200 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Irma.


SUMMARY OF 745 AM AST...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Landsea

 

[Mike S]

If this thing gets into the Gulf.......

 

[TuckerTerry]

Looking more and more like a Gulf storm. It's going to be devastating. Good Lord ...

 

[Blountwolf]

Frankly at this point I think getting into the gulf might be a better scenario than going up the middle of Florida from south to north. We all know how little Florida land tends to weaken a storm - a cat 4 or 5 walking up the state would cause unprecedented devastation.

 

[Blountwolf]

Does anyone see any factor that could weaken this storm from here to the coast other than going further south than expected and impacting the mountains of Hispaniola? Because I'm not seeing anything, and I want to see something.

 

[TuckerTerry]

My local Met was just doing a Facebook Live. He said that very thing... because on it's current track, it's not going to go over any land mass, directly, anyway. Too, there is no shear. He also said the intensity of it at this point, is worse than Katrina ever was.

I'm with you in that it would be better for it to enter the Gulf prior to making that northerly turn, but feel for whomever gets this one.

Could we see our first "Cat 6"???