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Severe Weather 2023

June 1999 had 289 tornadoes, June 1998 had 376, June 1993 had 313, June 1992 had 399 tornadoes, and June 1990 had 329. June 1992 is the highest tornado count going back to 1950 for the month. The only June in recent years that has had over 200 tornadoes is 2014 with 283.
 

Noah Bergren
@NbergWX

The last time we had a tornado during June in the WPSD region was June 23rd, 2019. If we were to have a legit severe risk again in June, this would be the pattern signal you'd be looking for this far out. Long way to go though, but seeds are being planted in the pattern.Just glancing big picture, some kind of 500mb low and associated strong jet winds should be near us, meanwhile a strong signal for 2,000+ CAPE (>70% chance) next Wed. & Thurs.The ECMWF places the risk down in AR/MS/AL/TN but the signal is there regardless. If I was offering you a 'vegas betting line' for there to be a or several tornadoes somewhere, I would take the "over" for next week as of now for somewhere in the lower OH/mid-MS valley. Keeping an eye on it.

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Someone seems liable to get an anomalous severe weather risk next week if the 12z guidance is on the right track as a belt of seasonably strong mid-level flow is in place across the southern tier of the CONUS. Southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley/OV look most probable right now, and it will depend on how an upper low over the southwest this weekend ejects east and a trough that moves southeast over the Great Lakes initially.

There may be additional threats over the High and Central/Northern Plains following this as mid-upper flow remains strong and lifts northward. The enhancement of the Pacific jet from the recurve of Typhoon Mawar is likely contributing to this.
 
andyhb said:
Someone seems liable to get an anomalous severe weather risk next week if the 12z guidance is on the right track as a belt of seasonably strong mid-level flow is in place across the southern tier of the CONUS. Southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley/OV look most probable right now, and it will depend on how an upper low over the southwest this weekend ejects east and a trough that moves southeast over the Great Lakes initially.

There may be additional threats over the High and Central/Northern Plains following this as mid-upper flow remains strong and lifts northward. The enhancement of the Pacific jet from the recurve of Typhoon Mawar is likely contributing to this.
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Do you think smoke and haze from the large Canadian wildfires will have any impact on upcoming severe weather threats?
 
TH2002 said:
Do you think smoke and haze from the large Canadian wildfires will have any impact on upcoming severe weather threats?
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That's a very good question. There was a study or article that I came across way back on the April 2011 Outbreak. At the time of that, there were pretty large wildfires ongoing down into Central or South America. The article suggested that these wildfires and/or smoke may have added extra fuel somehow. IDK but I found it intriguing to say the least.
 
TH2002 said:
Do you think smoke and haze from the large Canadian wildfires will have any impact on upcoming severe weather threats?
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Considering the current blocky flow regime over North America is contributing to all of this smoke (which then breaks down) and that most of it is well north/east, I don't think it should be too much of an issue.
 
JPWX said:
That's a very good question. There was a study or article that I came across way back on the April 2011 Outbreak. At the time of that, there were pretty large wildfires ongoing down into Central or South America. The article suggested that these wildfires and/or smoke may have added extra fuel somehow. IDK but I found it intriguing to say the least.
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I've heard that on May 20, 2019 haze and smoke from Mexican wildfires did the opposite and bolstered the cap, preventing most of the initial forecasted supercells from getting going. Interested to hear how wildfire smoke may have actually made April 2011 worse, and genuinely curious if there have been any studies that try to make sense of what potential effects wildfires may have on tornado activity.
 
@Taylor Campbell @JBishopwx The NWS Jackson CWA in MS has recorded 25 June F2/EF2-F3/EF3 tornadoes with the last one occurring June 12th, 2009. Of those 25, only 4 were F3/EF3 which occurred on: June 28th, 1957, June 3rd, 1950, June 6th, 1916, and June 5th, 1916. The NWS Memphis CWA for North MS has recorded 6 F2/EF2 tornadoes with no F3/EF3 occurring. Interestingly enough, the last F2/EF2 occurred June 12th, 2009. The other 5 occurred on: June 17th, 1985, June 24th, 1980, June 19th, 1980, June 22nd, 1955, and June 3rd, 1928. One of the F2/EF2 tornadoes affected Greenwood Springs, MS. It is the only known tornado in Monroe County MS in June.
 
Also are we thinking more MCS potential or more of a spring type severe weather threat next week?
 
The June 12th 2009 event was a Severe MCS/Derecho that prompted a Moderate Risk for North MS. It also prompted a rare PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Arkansas into Northwest MS. @Taylor Campbell
 
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