Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[UK_EF4]

Man....this was Keota....
View attachment 19623View attachment 19624View attachment 19625View attachment 19626

Was literally about to post those images. Context certainly supportive of EF4 winds.

 

[TH2002]

Brad Arnold is talking with survivors near Sullivan, one reports "cars thrown everywhere".

This is turning out to be pretty accurate - and geez, I didn't even notice the truck the first time I looked at this:

 

[ColdFront]

Was literally about to post those images. Context certainly supportive of EF4 winds.

I am afraid of what other pictures like that are going to come to light today

 

[pohnpei]

yeah, the grass scouring was also quite obvious here in keota

 

[UK_EF4]

Could this be a non CMU foundation? I can't tell. If it is not, then thats likely EF4 structural damage, pending connections etc.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Huh...?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Can anybody explain how the heck the picture above happened? Satellite tornado..? Or something?

 

[tornado examiner]

Can anybody explain how the heck the picture above happened? Satellite tornado..? Or something?

Needle vortex

 

[Casuarina Head]

Question: does a 30% TOR (HIGH Risk) require two or more EF4+ tornadoes to verify? So far the only clear-cut EF4+ seems to be the Keota IA tornado. The other “candidates” look to be no higher than EF3, based on damage documented so far, but evidence of EF4+ winds could turn up eventually.

Edit: Take that back...Robinson IL might be EF4-worthy. If we see two or more confirmed EF4+ tornadoes I’d say the 30% HIGH definitely verified.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Question: does a 30% TOR (HIGH Risk) require two or more EF4+ tornadoes to verify? So far the only clear-cut EF4+ seems to be the Keota IA tornado. The other “candidates” look to be no higher than EF3, based on damage documented so far, but evidence of EF4+ winds could turn up eventually.

Edit: Take that back...Robinson IL might be EF4-worthy. If we see two or more confirmed EF4+ tornadoes I’d say the 30% HIGH definitely verified.

Good, you realized Robinson is EF4 worthy. Other candidates are Farson, IA if the damage really is horrific there, Covington, TN and possibly Wynne, AR and Clifton, TN.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I think it was a intense suction vorticity

Huh...?

 

[UK_EF4]

Question: does a 30% TOR (HIGH Risk) require two or more EF4+ tornadoes to verify? So far the only clear-cut EF4+ seems to be the Keota IA tornado. The other “candidates” look to be no higher than EF3, based on damage documented so far, but evidence of EF4+ winds could turn up eventually.

Edit: Take that back...Robinson IL might be EF4-worthy. If we see two or more confirmed EF4+ tornadoes I’d say the 30% HIGH definitely verified.

There is no requirement. The general idea the SPC has when issuing high risks are major tornado outbreaks with numerous strong tornadoes, and multiple intense ones. That happened last night - it verified.

 

[UK_EF4]

I think it was a intense suction vorticity

Could easily have just been a drill bit type tornado. The footage I saw from the storm had a tall stovepipe, not necessarily a wedge though I'm sure it probably was at some point of its lifecycle.

 

[TH2002]

Question: does a 30% TOR (HIGH Risk) require two or more EF4+ tornadoes to verify? So far the only clear-cut EF4+ seems to be the Keota IA tornado. The other “candidates” look to be no higher than EF3, based on damage documented so far, but evidence of EF4+ winds could turn up eventually.

Edit: Take that back...Robinson IL might be EF4-worthy. If we see two or more confirmed EF4+ tornadoes I’d say the 30% HIGH definitely verified.

I guess it depends what one's standards are regarding whether or not they think an SPC outlook verified - I, like most others on here, would concur that the outlook more than verified. The SPC did an excellent job with this one.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

How good is the survey office that’s gonna be responsible for Sullivan?

Looks like it'll be ILX (CalebRoutt stated they thought EF5 for Mayfield would be appropriate) and IND (they do decent jobs on the survey but man they miss a few tornadoes)

 

[Casuarina Head]

Good, you realized Robinson is EF4 worthy. Other candidates are Farson, IA if the damage really is horrific there, Covington, TN and possibly Wynne, AR and Clifton, TN.

Actually, based on the evidence I see at least three EF4+ candidates: Keota IA, Robinson IL, and Sullivan IN. Covington TN certainly had EF4-level radar signatures at one point, so that might be a fourth, but the question is, Were there a lot of contextual DIs at the time of the peak velocities? So far I haven’t come across clear-cut EF4+ damage from Wynne or Little Rock AR. Clifton I’ll need to check out. Regardless, I think this HIGH definitely verified, based on posters’ clarification. We had a very high number of EF3+ events, certainly.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Could easily have just been a drill bit type tornado. The footage I saw from the storm had a tall stovepipe, not necessarily a wedge though I'm sure it probably was at some point of its lifecycle.

That small and intense? That seems highly unlikely

 

[locomusic01]

Can anybody explain how the heck the picture above happened? Satellite tornado..? Or something?

Hard to say without more context but it could be an extremely narrow vortex, one or more debris strikes, a structural flaw/weak point in that part of the home or some combination of the above.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Actually, based on the evidence I see at least three EF4+ candidates: Keota IA, Robinson IL, and Sullivan IL. Covington TN certainly had EF4-level radar signatures at one point, so that might be a fourth, but the question is, Were there a lot of contextual DIs at the time of the peak velocities? So far I haven’t come across clear-cut EF4+ damage from Wynne or Little Rock AR. Clifton I’ll need to check out. Regardless, I think this HIGH definitely verified, based on posters’ clarification. We had a very high number of EF3+ events, certainly.

Robinson and Sullivan were the same tornado.