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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

Patrick is a great friend of mine. I met him at one of the severe wx symposiums at MS State a few years back. We stay in touch.
 
14z HRRR updraft helicity is close in line with RRFS A
 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 311537Z - 311630Z


SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE MODERATE RISK OVER SOUTHEASTERN IA,
NORTHWESTERN IL, AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MO WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IN THE 1630 UTC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...AN UPGRADE TO A TORNADO-DRIVEN HIGH RISK (30%
PROBABILITY) IS EXPECTED FOR THE 1630 UTC OUTLOOK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS STRONG TO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IA, NORTHWESTERN IL, AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN MO.
PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE FOR
MORE INFORMATION.

..LYONS/SMITH.. 03/31/2023

FsjxZo4aYAAxUhs
 
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