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Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

tennessee storm chaser said:
Think SPC goes moderate for the area junctions mo bootheel , ne Arkansas , nw Tennessee part sw Kentucky … close to the best shear and instability over lap. The triple point further north won’t be nothing sneeze at either
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April 2nd, 2006 comes to mind as a possible analog at least in terms of location and general time of year for Friday and possibly next Monday and/or Tuesday. Several long-track, killer F3s in the mid-MS Valley, at least one of which was probably underrated.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 
Penitentes said:
Copying from the other thread: Saint Louis radar site (KLSX) will be down for this event and the 4/4 event.

National Weather Service St. Louis radar update delayed due to potential severe weather

The National Weather Service has announced the upgrade would be delayed until April 6.
www.kmov.com www.kmov.com
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Whoever scheduled these radar upgrades needs to be taken out to the woodshed for some "corrective action."

Although unless they've already taken the thing apart (as had happened for KMXX last weekend), it's possible they could postpone, as has already been done on a couple of occasions for this series of upgrades.

Based on the article it seems like they are trying to avoid postponing, but the signal is strong enough for their CWA to be right in the thick of things both tomorrow and next week that I think it is the right thing to do.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Whoever scheduled these radar upgrades needs to be taken out to the woodshed for some "corrective action."

Although unless they've already taken the thing apart (as had happened for KMXX last weekend), it's possible they could postpone, as has already been done on a couple of occasions for this series of upgrades.

Based on the article it seems like they are trying to avoid postponing, but the signal is strong enough for their CWA to be right in the thick of things both tomorrow and next week that I think it is the right thing to do.
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Why don't they do these in July?
 
JayF said:
Or in November?
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Well November is potentially active for severe weather/tornadoes in the South, as well.

Back on the topic of Friday...first sniff of 3KM NAM out to 00Z Saturday is...interesting. Definitely shows a lot of activity with updraft helicity from Iowa down to Arkansas. Mode looks fairly messy but that's also typical for that model. The last few events it was pretty tame with its simulated reflectivity/UH, especially at the end of its range.

Also worth noting that if it's anywhere close to reality, they are GOING to want KLSX in service...
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Well November is potentially active for severe weather/tornadoes in the South, as well.

Back on the topic of tomorrow...first sniff of 3KM NAM out to 00Z Saturday is...interesting. Definitely shows a lot of activity with updraft helicity from Iowa down to Arkansas. Mode looks fairly messy but that's also typical for that model. The last few events it was pretty tame with its simulated reflectivity/UH, especially at the end of its range.

Also worth noting that if it's anywhere close to reality, they are GOING to want KLSX in service...
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I saw MEG’s outlook banking on and discussing discrete cells, but I know Trey mentioned a mixed mode possible as well.
 
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ashtonlemleywx said:
View attachment 19312

That track in central MS is not a UH track you want to see. Almost same exact path as tornado last week.
Keep in mind this is from the experimental C-Shield model.
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Isn't this pretty similar to a couple days ago?

This only solidifies my position on a very rough day in north Mississippi and Tennessee valley
 
Isn't this pretty similar to a couple days ago?

This only solidifies my position on a very rough day in north Mississippi and Tennessee valley
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I don’t see this performing as well as advertised. Check out some of the soundings. I wasn’t impressed ( At least for the TN valley anyways)
 
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