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Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

Breezy said:
mendenhall storm is classic on reflectivity. velocity has completely collapsed at the moment.

if that storm can’t crank i think it’s telling.
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It's been said that the first storm of the day will tell you a story. The storms we've been seeing thus far don't exactly look encouraging for how tonight's severe weather event might play out...
 
Breezy said:
mendenhall storm is classic on reflectivity. velocity has completely collapsed at the moment.

if that storm can’t crank i think it’s telling.
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There’s some definitive signs of struggling for warm sector cells firing in this event, even though that cell isn’t in that “perfect” environment spot.

It’s almost sundown too which was when the main threat was supposed to get started
 
Too many people writing off this event for a cell that is well east of the best low-level shear and on the border of the better low-level moisture. Give it time, this event wasn't supposed to take off until at least 00z anyways.
 
andyhb said:
Too many people writing off this event for a cell that is well east of the best low-level shear and on the border of the better low-level moisture. Give it time, this event wasn't supposed to take off until at least 00z anyways.
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Was about to say, I'm concerned about the possibility of some real nastiness evolving during the nighttime hours.
 
MattPetrulli said:
Strongly disagree with assumptions being made about the MS cell struggling. It's not in the best environment and is still rather early. It has always been clearly pegged as a nocturnal event.
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Agreed... main event seems likely to begin in the next hour or so. Those prefrontal confluence across LA will likely mature more as the upper trough arrives and the environment becomes more favourable. Funnily enough that 06z HRRR run with the line of supercells across C MS does seem like it could play out fairly 'nicely' as it handled the current band we have now - though nothing about it would be nice for those on the ground if it were to verify. The currently tornado warned supercell in S AR took over an hour to mature to its current state - and the environment is only improving. I'm concerned.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I'll never understand why KLCH and KPOE are so close together, while large parts of the ArkLaMiss are a horrible radar hole.
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I have to amend this somewhat as it did come in handy during the landfall of Hurricane Laura when it knocked out KLCH, but the fact that no NEXRAD can currently see that Portland, AR cell below 12,000' is criminal.
 
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