Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[CheeselandSkies]

18z hrrr has about 4 long track supercells.. with a accompanying tornado risk I mean c'mon man.

Saving grace may be that it's too messy

In the space of a couple runs the pendulum swings from "no sustained warm sector cells Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" to "maybe too messy?" Sounds typical, lol.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah I don't think moisture is gonna be an issue. The HRRR has JAN at 76/68 when the storms get there. (And obviously the SRH values are nuts but that's not surprising.)

 

[UncleJuJu98]

In the space of a couple runs the pendulum swings from "no sustained warm sector cells Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" to "maybe too messy?" Sounds typical, lol.

I think weather models are programmed to play on the emotions of forecasters lol.

 

[warneagle]

In the space of a couple runs the pendulum swings from "no sustained warm sector cells Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency" to "maybe too messy?" Sounds typical, lol.

Seriously, I get more consistency when I ask my wife where she wants to go for dinner.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[tornado examiner]

Next outlook is at 3pm right?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I think we should consider changing tone here soon, once the event gets going. Information may become critical if this event pans out. I'm about to shift here soon lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Next outlook is at 3pm right?

I've heard 20z somewhere on this thread not sure. It'll be very soon if they plan on a update

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[JBishopwx]

20z= 3:00 CDT

 

[NorthGaWeather]

18z hrrr has about 4 long track supercells.. with a accompanying tornado risk I mean c'mon man.

Saving grace may be that it's too messy

It wouldn't be a Dixie event if it wasn't somewhat messy.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The low level shear and low level moisture for portions of the impact area is quite honestly staggering.

 

[treypops]

Seriously concerning.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Seriously concerning.

Screams wedge to me.

 

[TornadoFan]

Seems to be quite a bit of overmixing in N. MS.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Notable that most of the short-range soundings have fairly substantial 0-3KM CAPE.

 

[Equus]

Mixing is definitely an issue now, but with the dynamic support moving in and N MS being hours away from the action and a strong LLJ kicking in I really doubt it'll remain an issue when the storms arrive

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Notable that most of the short-range soundings have fairly substantial 0-3KM CAPE.

That's one thing you DONT want. High low level instability and high low level shear. Spells disaster

 

[treypops]

Seems to be quite a bit of overmixing in N. MS.

This feels like wishful thinking to me. We're still a ways out in that area. But I'll look for any reason for optimism and hope they're on to something.

 

[warneagle]

Mixing is definitely an issue now, but with the dynamic support moving in and N MS being hours away from the action and a strong LLJ kicking in I really doubt it'll remain an issue when the storms arrive

Yeah I think the only real question is how far north that moisture gets before the storms get there. I don't think it's going to be an issue further south but closer to the Tennessee border it might mitigate some of the threat.