Severe WX March 23-25th, 2023

[treypops]

Is this in reference to the MDT era (where it's obviously going to be a PDS) or the area northeast of the current watch? I assume he's referring to the latter.

Yes, I'm fairly certain he's referring to the areas to the east/northeast of the current watch.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hm.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Notice how that highest area is along or near the current outflow boundary....

Very alarming.

 

[treypops]

Hm.

 

[Clancy]

Is this in reference to the MDT era (where it's obviously going to be a PDS) or the area northeast of the current watch? I assume he's referring to the latter.

The latter, I believe.

 

[CentralKyWeather]

Bear in mind that I was a liberal arts major and have absolutely no idea what I'm talking about. Caveat emptor.

The greatest comment of all time. I'm still laughing my money maker off. I will forever always remember this lol.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Though storms won't get here until morning tomorrow, having all-day sun around here definitely doesn't give things the feel of the usual Dixie event.

This and the fact that the 18Z JAN sounding has no matching analogs might offer some hope that the “ceiling” won’t be realised. I am starting to think that the cap is likely to preclude a HIGH Risk at 20Z and will likely prevent this event from reaching its “ceiling.” The parameters continue to favour some EF2+ tornadoes and a significant wind-based threat, but maybe the multiple EF2+ families won’t verify, as opposed to an isolated EF2+ supercell, especially along that notorious outflow boundary. The wind alone means that people should be aware and careful.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Location of the outflow boundary.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

This and the fact that the 18Z JAN sounding has no matching analogs might offer some hope that the “ceiling” won’t be realised. I am starting to think that the cap is likely to preclude a HIGH Risk at 20Z and will likely prevent this event from reaching its “ceiling.” The parameters continue to favour some EF2+ tornadoes and a significant wind-based threat, but maybe the multiple EF2+ families won’t verify, as opposed to an isolated EF2+ supercell. The wind alone means that people should be aware and careful.

18Z sounding isn't the same environment that the storms will be going through around 23-02Z, though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Don't look at the 18z hrrr unless you wanna crap your pants.

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Hm.

Never seen *that* map before.

 

[Casuarina Head]

18Z sounding isn't the same environment that the storms will be going through around 23-02Z, though.

True, but my usual conservative (bearish?) bias is showing at this late hour, owing to the recent spate of busts. It’s certainly weird that for once you are relatively bullish vs. me...anyway, this event will be significant regardless. Probably I will end up regretting the fact that I posted my reservation(s) to begin with, if the 18Z HRRR truly has the “last word” on this event’s potential.

 

[treypops]

I thought the cap wasn’t an issue. why is now suddenly an issue?

It's early to be suggesting this. As stated earlier, the environment will be different come initiation time.

 

[The Nino]

Don't look at the 18z hrrr unless you wanna crap your pants.

you ain't livin life without a good crap of the pants every so often

 

[treypops]

True, but my usual conservative (bearish?) bias is showing at this late hour, owing to the recent spate of busts. It’s certainly weird that for once you are relatively bullish vs. me...anyway, this event will be significant regardless. Probably I will end up regretting the fact that I posted my reservation(s) to begin with, if the 18Z HRRR truly has the “last word” on this event’s potential.

And of course, the obligatory....."If you're impacted by an EF1, it's an outbreak to YOU."

 

[warneagle]

This and the fact that the 18Z JAN sounding has no matching analogs might offer some hope that the “ceiling” won’t be realised. I am starting to think that the cap is likely to preclude a HIGH Risk at 20Z and will likely prevent this event from reaching its “ceiling.” The parameters continue to favour some EF2+ tornadoes and a significant wind-based threat, but maybe the multiple EF2+ families won’t verify, as opposed to an isolated EF2+ supercell, especially along that notorious outflow boundary. The wind alone means that people should be aware and careful.

We're still like six or seven hours from JAN being in play so that sounding isn't really representative of what the environment will look like during the main window for discrete OWS storms in the MDT area. Obviously it's not a super-favorable environment right now but the dry air mixing down to the surface isn't a death sentence because there's still plenty of time for low-level moisture to be transported northward, especially if the LLJ ends up being as strong as it's modeled to be.

If you look at the current surface obs, the Tds in southeastern Louisiana are already pushing 70 degrees and there's more than enough time for that airmass to be advected into the MDT area before the dynamic support arrives.

 

[TornadoFan]

Don't look at the 18z hrrr unless you wanna crap your pants.

Just looked at it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18z hrrr has about 4 long track supercells.. with a accompanying tornado risk I mean c'mon man.

Saving grace may be that it's too messy

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I really don't think you could go wrong with A high risk in the middle of the moderate at this point. BUT I digress a dangerous event without it. No violent tornado follows a high risk outline.