Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[atrainguy]

Brad Arnold is reporting another tornado from Bowie County, TX.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brad Arnold is reporting another tornado from Bowie County, TX.

Brad Arnold is winning today.

 

[W4AQX]

STP parameters are high on the 0z run of the nam (valid 1-3pm), but the UH is mostly drawing a blank for AL/GA. And even though the UH tracks are “blank” and don’t really show any tracks for AL/GA, the soundings still come up PDS.

Make it make sense lol

I was trying to figure that out earlier.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[GTWXAlum]

We already have a high wind warning for middle Tennessee tomorrow..any severe thunderstorm along with that spells a lot of trouble

 

[W4AQX]

morning/early

This is maddening. I'm glad I don't forecast for a living.

You and me both.

 

[WesL]

Edited the title back to what it was originally.

 

[MattPetrulli]

03z HRRR a tad messier, curious to see if messy convective mode ends up being one of the failure modes. Seems pretty likely we get some type of robust convection though.

Still not sold due to lack of UH tracks.

 

[The Nino]

 

[TornadoFan]

There's Reed and the "O" word again.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

 

[Timhsv]

Very dangerous forecast sounding off the 03Z HRRR if verifies. Centered in Eastern Marshall Co. Look at those SFC -1km SRH at 584 m2/s2 and STP at 4.5

 

[MattPetrulli]

03z HRRR still doesn't really have robust helicity tracks at all. That could be a result of 700 MB temps not allowing for cells to properly root. HOWEVER, one can argue that these are low-topped cells that would show up a bit lesser on UH tracks, also supported by the amount of 3CAPE. Fully expect a 10% hatched at 06z however.

 

[MattPetrulli]

lol

 

[tornado examiner]

Bruh

 

[Equus]

Expected a 10% and discussion on uncertainty given warm midlevels/associated poor lapse rates, 5% and a pretty short discussion not even mentioning the non-negligible possibility of a couple cells taking advantage of the insane dynamics and hodos in play seems quite conservative. I get that there's a lot of potential limiting factors and there could be a very serious struggle to sustain rotating updrafts especially in less forced areas (poor lapse rates/skinny CAPE + extreme shear = good way to decapitate your supercell) but not even a mention is a little unexpected. Anything that does manage to sustain in that environment, however low the odds, could quickly make it a far worse day than the outlook would tend to indicate

 

[OHWX97]

TOG between Carthage and Leola, AR.


There's also a possible tornado about to cross I-20, near Gibsland, LA. In addition, a discrete cell back in eastern Texas bears watching.

 

[KevinH]

Edited the title back to what it was originally.

Originally the thread title (on Feb 22nd) was “Severe Wx Threat Mar 3-4, 2023 (3/3 LA/MS), (3/4 AL/GA)”. Several SPC outlooks since that date suggested the threat from the same system will be a multi-day event (1st-3rd) across a large area (Southern States), and as of this morning, the MS/TN/MS Valley areas.

 

[JBishopwx]