Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[Clancy]

Didn't realize the tornado threat extended that far north tomorrow, I assumed it was all going to be deep south again. Is this a new development?

Not necessarily new, but the magnitude of the parameters has increased for that area with more recent guidance.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Not necessarily new, but the magnitude of the parameters has increased for that area with more recent guidance.
View attachment 18480

This is showing why we need to watch Tennessee in Kentucky as well. At least some of my observations this morning pointed to this.

This slowed down system may push tornadoes further north than originally thought.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Nadocast for tomorrow is interesting.

Yeah, watch out KY. I was just about to post that I have seen lots of model data suggest that area to be hot tomorrow. Interestingly, the CSU-MLP instead puts the 10% risk in central Georgia with max prob almost to 15% near Macon, GA. I am more inclined about the KY/ north threat. But, regardless looks like there is a rather large area at risk tomorrow.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Starting to have minor flooding here in Homewood with all this heavy rain.

 

[OHWX97]

@OHWX97

I was starting to notice last night that there might be some potential for another sneaky cold-core setup. I'm still a bit skeptical given the likelihood of excessive rainfall mitigating the threat, but certainly a trend worth keeping a very close eye on.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I have been looking at models this morning and you can just about drive straight line from my house to the Dallas area and we will have severe tonight with a high strong tornado risk and just get worse as you go to points East as the night goes on. I'm really worried about East Texas tonight because every hodograph I'm sampling through every model shows PDS Tornado. The amount of sheer rolling in front of the line of storms along the dry line as it pushes east through Arkansas and Louisiana tonight could be scary as well. I know I'm not saying anything new, but even yesterday I never saw something like this playing out over here in Texas. And then we get to play the game again tomorrow this is gonna be a fun Spring.


ETA - right at the ARKLATEX junction later tonight

 

[TornadoFan]

The moderate risk has expanded west to include Dallas-Fort Worth.

 

[SmokeEater]

The moderate risk has expanded west to include Dallas-Fort Worth.

15% tor is gone, 45% hatched hail for DFW.

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[tornado examiner]

I was thinking they’d drop the moderate tornado risk…

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The 1630 discussion even mentioned the same thing I noticed, which is that it's looking more likely that the window of discrete convective mode and the strengthening of the low-level shear might miss each other.

Even so, if a tornado warning goes out for your house, outlook category/probability ceases to matter.

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[TornadoFan]

Still wouldn't let my guard down.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Photos from the hailstorm just south of San Antonio last night. We never do anything small in Texas. We are probably going to see more tonight

Hail Storm

More Pictures

 

[UK_EF4]

100% agree with SPC going 10%#. Almost zero signal for discrete open warm sector storms across LA and AR where/when the environment is best, which is where the main threat of strong tornadoes really was. Could be a couple of strong tornadoes in the QLCS though.

 

[cincywx]

I was starting to notice last night that there might be some potential for another sneaky cold-core setup. I'm still a bit skeptical given the likelihood of excessive rainfall mitigating the threat, but certainly a trend worth keeping a very close eye on.

great point. even if we see a cold core funnel or two, i have to wonder how visible it'll even be. would still be nice to get a photogenic one out of this though...

 

[warneagle]

100% agree with SPC going 10%#. Almost zero signal for discrete open warm sector storms across LA and AR where the environment is best, which is where the main threat of strong tornadoes really was. Could be a couple of strong tornadoes in the QLCS though.

If you get a cell or two riding the warm front up in southern Arkansas where the shear would be enhanced you could get a sigtor threat there but yeah the open warm sector doesn't really look like it's going to amount to much.

I'm not sure why a parameter space like this isn't producing any convection but yeah. LLLRs aren't great but there isn't much capping to speak of. Seems like it should produce storms, and yet.

 

[SmokeEater]

MD out for TX, watch likely. Mentions significant hailstorms.

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[tennessee storm chaser]

Not too impressed with today at the moment. Think best sig tor risk is DFW to NE TX. Maybe some pre frontals but otherwise seems like a QLCS threat unless CAMS are under concerting. Tomorrow’s environment is pristine but looks like the lack of convection issue may stand. Overall at the present moment both days don’t really look high end like I once thought they would be

Also warm layer above could be hard break cap…

 

[CheeselandSkies]

If you get a cell or two riding the warm front up in southern Arkansas where the shear would be enhanced you could get a sigtor threat there but yeah the open warm sector doesn't really look like it's going to amount to much.

I'm not sure why a parameter space like this isn't producing any convection but yeah. LLLRs aren't great but there isn't much capping to speak of. Seems like it should produce storms, and yet.

Either the HRRR is broken, or the atmosphere is. That is a real headscratcher. Nothing left to do but wait and see what happens tonight.

 

[keithGA]

Either the HRRR is broken, or the atmosphere is. That is a real headscratcher. Nothing left to do but wait and see what happens tonight.

Not just the HRRR. Other CAMs are showing this too. Strange.

 

[ColdFront]

Models have just been….weird this year. I wonder if it’s not necessarily a trend of underperformance or over-forecasting but some sort of janky parameterization or something variable wise in the models.