What I'm wondering is if whatever spins up, will be very low-topped, as in the model can't accurately pick up on the updraft. Similar (but entirely different method of course) to how a radar shooting 4000ft into the air won't see circulation that isn't more than 2000ft above the ground.
Certainly wouldn't be impossible. We had those New Year's Eve low-topped tornado-producers not too long ago.
Yeah that might explain the relative lack of open warm sector convection on the CAMs (along with warmer mid-level temperatures).
Yep. I had a low topped spinner pass behind my house within view of my deck in October 2020.
Will surely be a tricky one to track on Friday for us. I feel like Georgia always has a weird way of making our threats more complicated, for better or worse.
This is certainly 2023’s trend to date, for the most part...especially over the past month or so. It’s certainly very good news for the areas affected.
I think that the EF2+ TOR threat will end up being much lower than most people expect. The 15% hatched TOR risk should be lowered to 10% or lower. A MDT Risk for wind should stay, given the threat of a strong QLCS. I also don’t believe tomorrow’s EF2+ threat will be significant, as 700-mb temperatures will be too warm and deep-layer flow rather weak, owing to the occlusion of the low. So far I think my conservative prognoses have been verifying well, but things could always change. (But at this stage that seems a bit unlikely.)
See that's what I'm kinda worried about, especially if a cell or two becomes a east bound lol, and maintains enough distance ahead of the line or a cell rides the frontal boundary, not to mention the QCLS could very well produce a significant spin up
I would say, “Definitely a much lower” threat, in terms of multiple EF2+ tornado families. But yes, I expect an isolated strong tornado or two. People should watch.
