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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

Clancy said:
Geez, Friday is looking weeeird. High parameter space at a glance but problems at the mid-levels. Anything that gets going in that environment would be a real troublemaker, but whether that happens at all will remain an open question right up until zero hour. Not gonna enjoy watching the radar Friday.
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What I'm wondering is if whatever spins up, will be very low-topped, as in the model can't accurately pick up on the updraft. Similar (but entirely different method of course) to how a radar shooting 4000ft into the air won't see circulation that isn't more than 2000ft above the ground.
 
MattW said:
What I'm wondering is if whatever spins up, will be very low-topped, as in the model can't accurately pick up on the updraft. Similar (but entirely different method of course) to how a radar shooting 4000ft into the air won't see circulation that isn't more than 2000ft above the ground.
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Certainly wouldn't be impossible. We had those New Year's Eve low-topped tornado-producers not too long ago.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
12Z HRRR came in a little bit hotter than previous runs, I can find at least three potentially significant tornadic supercells that are discrete for a least a little while.

One potential failure mode I've noticed that seems to have crept up on today is that the low-level hodographs are pretty straight until later in the game when convection starts to cluster/line out. The one exception might be in Arkansas where the 12Z HRRR has a couple of potential problem storms this evening while low-level shear is quite strong.

There's enough uncertainty that I think SPC holding at 15% hatched, moderate risk is a good call.
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Yeah that might explain the relative lack of open warm sector convection on the CAMs (along with warmer mid-level temperatures).
 
hrrr_2023030212_031_34.26--84.74.png

This is what the HRRR is showing for 2pm EST tomorrow around 7 miles NE of Cartersville, GA. The HRRR, 3kNAM, GFS, Euro, and others have all been consistent at showing these insane parameters, I don't even remember the last time I saw a PDS sounding in Georgia. But with that low dewpoint spread, the cloud bases will only be ~1600 AGL, 3kNAM is even lower, but also about 2 hours slower.
 
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MattW said:
This is what the HRRR is showing for 2pm EST tomorrow around 7 miles NE of Cartersville, GA. The HRRR, 3kNAM, GFS, Euro, and others have all been consistent at showing these insane parameters, I don't even remember the last time I saw a PDS sounding in Georgia. But with that low dewpoint spread, the cloud bases will only be ~1600 AGL, 3kNAM is even lower, but also about 2 hours slower.
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Will surely be a tricky one to track on Friday for us. I feel like Georgia always has a weird way of making our threats more complicated, for better or worse.
 
MattPetrulli said:
Not too impressed with today at the moment. Think best sig tor risk is DFW to NE TX. Maybe some pre frontals but otherwise seems like a QLCS threat unless CAMS are under concerting. Tomorrow’s environment is pristine but looks like the lack of convection issue may stand. Overall at the present moment both days don’t really look high end like I once thought they would be
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This is certainly 2023’s trend to date, for the most part...especially over the past month or so. It’s certainly very good news for the areas affected.
 
Casuarina Head said:
This is certainly 2023’s trend to date, for the most part...especially over the past month or so. It’s certainly very good news for the areas affected.
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You noticed that too huh? That is why I am not holding my breath for events that are outside of D1-3. Like you said, several events “started” as high end and trended downwards at some point as we got closer to D1. I don’t have time for that lol
 
CheeselandSkies said:
12Z HRRR came in a little bit hotter than previous runs, I can find at least three potentially significant tornadic supercells that are discrete for a least a little while.

One potential failure mode I've noticed that seems to have crept up on today is that the low-level hodographs are pretty straight until later in the game when convection starts to cluster/line out. The one exception might be in Arkansas where the 12Z HRRR has a couple of potential problem storms this evening while low-level shear is quite strong.

There's enough uncertainty that I think SPC holding at 15% hatched, moderate risk is a good call.
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I think that the EF2+ TOR threat will end up being much lower than most people expect. The 15% hatched TOR risk should be lowered to 10% or lower. A MDT Risk for wind should stay, given the threat of a strong QLCS. I also don’t believe tomorrow’s EF2+ threat will be significant, as 700-mb temperatures will be too warm and deep-layer flow rather weak, owing to the occlusion of the low. So far I think my conservative prognoses have been verifying well, but things could always change. (But at this stage that seems a bit unlikely.)
 
CSU-MLP shows a large 15% tornado risk with a max prob of nearly 25% in south AR in vicinity of Harrell. The HRRR has shown the possibility of an organized discrete supercell in northeast TX, northwestern LA, and into south and central AR this afternoon/eve. Nadocast also shows 10% hatched in this region. These products did a great job at identifying yesterday’s greatest tornado risk so I will have my eyes peeled towards this area for tornado potential.
 
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It was nice having severe weather 5 o'clock this morning to wake us up. It looks like we have a pretty good chance for being in severe weather today I'm just far enough north of Austin to be included in the mix even though it's nothing like it will be north east off here. The local meteorologist have said the system is slowing way down to where we are having our greatest chance of storms this afternoon and this evening, which should put it running through Louisiana Arkansas tonight unfortunately after dark

I'm thinking because it's slowing down that tomorrow is gonna be a bigger day than originally thought over along the Mississippi - Alabama line, Alabama and Georgia, and the areas up in Tennessee you better watch out as well.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
CSU-MLP shows a large 15% tornado risk with a max prob of nearly 25% in south AR in vicinity of Harrell. The HRRR has shown the possibility of an organized discrete supercell in northeast TX, northwestern LA, and into south and central AR this afternoon/eve.
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See that's what I'm kinda worried about, especially if a cell or two becomes a east bound lol, and maintains enough distance ahead of the line or a cell rides the frontal boundary, not to mention the QCLS could very well produce a significant spin up
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm afraid will end up with maybe a relatively lower threat than initially though a day or two ago, but you will have one or two storms that really scoot out or surprise and end up becoming a name maker, it's happened before.
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I would say, “Definitely a much lower” threat, in terms of multiple EF2+ tornado families. But yes, I expect an isolated strong tornado or two. People should watch.
 
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