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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

At this range, with the GFS speeding up, and the NAM slowing down, which one do we trust more?
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Just shy of showing 10% tornado probs on the map for tomorrow. Max probs on wind and hail are also a good bit higher than 15% as they show at over 20%.

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You were the 1st to jump on this man, I wasn't even looking at this until you first posted something earlier today good eye. Switching my focus. Gunna see what the WRF says
 
CheeselandSkies said:
12Z 3KM NAM at FH60 has first CAM sniff at 00Z Friday...shows semi-discrete cells just recently fired along the I-35 corridor in TX.
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I hope this thing will stay from me but y'all keep creeping west every new forecast.

Angry Season 4 GIF by The Office
 
the WRF is just as concerning as the hrrr. not as extreme of shear as the day 3 event but things are still alarming. STP is pretty high for this event for the area. Screenshot_2023-02-28-11-33-59-02_f9ee0578fe1cc94de7482bd41accb329.jpguh25_max.us_se (1).pngwrf-arw_ref_frzn_seus_39.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Perfect critical angle oof.
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I know I'm posting research papers too much, but (and this isn't directed at you) critical angle can be much looser than having a pure 90 degree angle. In fact, 60 degrees is a better discriminator. Too small or too large of an angle is more unfavorable. Also, the streamwise vorticity component in the lowest 0.5 km is very important in tornado production, as the study outlines. On that particular sounding, there is a large amount of vorticity available and its almost purely streamwise in the lowest km.

journals.ametsoc.org

Using Near-Ground Storm Relative Helicity in Supercell Tornado Forecasting

Abstract This study examines the possibility that supercell tornado forecasts could be improved by utilizing the storm-relative helicity (SRH) in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere (instead of much deeper layers). This hypothesis emerges from a growing body of literature linking the...
journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
 
xJownage said:
Wednesday is a classic day before the day. Looks a lot like 4/11 last year, going to get some big hailers and brief tors, and possibly a sigtor or two in the vicinity of the warm front.

Thursday looks like it has a very high ceiling. NAM has some massive VB due to very weak 800s right around the level of the EML, and global models are picking up on it too. Interested to see CAM outputs tonight and if they replicate this.

Friday is being seriously underforecasted imo. Looks like a potentially big day whether QLCS or cellular driven. I'm particularly worried because pattern recognition tells me some confluence bands are likely in the warm sector, which would make that day particularly dangerous considering discrete development would be likely should that scenario unfold.

Edit: random comment but this thread name is WAY TOO LONG lol
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I'm beginning to be concerned about the environment over North and Central Georgia on Friday, and even into Eastern Alabama. Still a lot of pieces that are moving and confidence in timing needs to increase. Nevertheless, most guidance is illuminating the potential for a robust severe event.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I know I'm posting research papers too much, but (and this isn't directed at you) critical angle can be much looser than having a pure 90 degree angle. In fact, 60 degrees is a better discriminator. Too small or too large of an angle is more unfavorable. Also, the streamwise vorticity component in the lowest 0.5 km is very important in tornado production, as the study outlines. On that particular sounding, there is a large amount of vorticity available and its almost purely streamwise in the lowest km.

journals.ametsoc.org

Using Near-Ground Storm Relative Helicity in Supercell Tornado Forecasting

Abstract This study examines the possibility that supercell tornado forecasts could be improved by utilizing the storm-relative helicity (SRH) in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere (instead of much deeper layers). This hypothesis emerges from a growing body of literature linking the...
journals.ametsoc.org journals.ametsoc.org
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Your all good I love the articles you send I ain't gunna learn if I don't know important things like some.of these
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I'm beginning to be concerned about the environment over North and Central Georgia on Friday, and even into Eastern Alabama. Still a lot of pieces that are moving and confidence in timing needs to increase. Nevertheless, most guidance is illuminating the potential for a robust severe event.
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I'm torn between North Georgia and South Georgia as the starting point. There are definitely some concerning soundings coming from the I-20 area midday, but there's also a lot of support for the start to be south of Columbus.
 
Man...12Z NAM at FH060 is just PDS TOR across the board along the boundary in Arkansas, the most concerning thing to me is the large amount of 3KM CAPE (>150 j/kg in some cases) being forecast in the presence of that amount of SRH.

Still could go either way on this being a "huge outbreak," but wherever that boundary sets up is in for a rough evening on Thursday.
 
Yea I'm most likely targeting Tunica,MS/Lula,MS tmrw night. I'll have an East option down hwy 4.

May go over to Marvell, Arkansas if timing is right to see something during daylight and cross back over at Helena bridge. Latest 18z HRRR run shows storm in Marvell at 6pm and Tunica at 7pm. That could be bumped up an hour or 2 over the next few runs.

Hopefully this storm swath doesn't keep trending North towards Memphis. I would rather it stay down in the Delta since theres less people and its wide open. Trying to chase a tornado in the Memphis Metro around 5-7pm just sounds like a nightmare.
 
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