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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

12Z NAM and GFS are doing some...weird things with this system. Both certainly still show potential for some dangerous storms to evolve, but this is the range at which you'd like to see models come into better consistency and agreement and that is not happening.

Honestly, being a professional meteorologist these days would drive me to drink (only thing worse than trying to forecast severe weather is trying to forecast winter precipitation). So many sources of information and all of it pointing in different directions.
 
According to little rock this is likely more significant than December 10-11 for there area. Maybe I guess it terms of tornadoes and not just environment. Not sure .

It my head that signifies since the vilonia event.
 
Hopefully somebody can pull up a deep dive in the vilonia setup and compare. I'll probably check it tonight, but I think this event is probably what they're referencing when they say awhile. So technically it's the best setup in about 9-10 years..?
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Models show an enhanced risk with tomorrow’s threat.
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Wednesday evening has my attention right now. It seems to be the most chasable setup for me in North Mississippi. Doesn't look like I'll have a shot of any daytime chasing Wednesday or Thursday. I'm also keeping my eye on Friday in Alabama for a daytime chase.

Probably going to skip Thursday since its so far West and nocturnal. One of my rules I've made for myself as a chaser is to not chase other states at night. Knowing the roads in your area without a GPS helps at night so you can make faster critical decisions.

Getting zero metered at night in a place you aren't familiar with is terrifying. Happened to me in Alabama at night back in 2013.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Too early, a lot of our threats will be exacerbated by mesoscale details and hi res models I'm afraid. A safe bet would be to say damaging winds and a few tornadoes at this point.
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on the global models, not seeing much in the form on instability but man does this overall system have that look. Has me intrigued.
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
Wednesday evening has my attention right now. It seems to be the most chasable setup for me in North Mississippi. Doesn't look like I'll have a shot of any daytime chasing Wednesday or Thursday. I'm also keeping my eye on Friday in Alabama for a daytime chase.

Probably going to skip Thursday since its so far West and nocturnal. One of my rules I've made for myself as a chaser is to not chase other states at night. Knowing the roads in your area without a GPS helps at night so you can make faster critical decisions.

Getting zero metered at night in a place you aren't familiar with is terrifying. Happened to me in Alabama at night back in 2013.
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Yeah be careful man, Thursday is probably not a night you wanna go chase. The storms may be too violent and too quick not even considering it's dark.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Hopefully somebody can pull up a deep dive in the vilonia setup and compare. I'll probably check it tonight, but I think this event is probably what they're referencing when they say awhile. So technically it's the best setup in about 9-10 years..?
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Vilonia setup was not really similar to this upcoming one, as I recall. Looking at the SPC archive it featured a negatively tilted trough centered much further north and west.


Also, here's the Little Rock observed 21Z sounding. Note "loaded gun" look to the thermodynamic profile, and the very large and strongly curved low-level hodograph (and corresponding large SRH) but the upper levels kind of fold back over on itself which manifested in the storm's forward flank core tending to rain out in front of the tornado's path, making it not exactly "rain-wrapped" in the standard Plains chaser sense, but still difficult to see coming from a location downstream in its path.

Something I learned from Trey (how to relate hodograph shape to actual supercell shape on radar and consequent potential location of hazards).
 

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ColdFront said:
That’s been the biggest question mark for me, system looks great, instability is hit or miss depending on the model, run, and location.

Arkansas is and eastern OK are checking those boxes though
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Gotta consider too, mesoscale models usually ramp up instability right up to the event. Havent checked theta e. But a 1000j is well enough for a significant tornado event with accompanying backed winds and other factors
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Something I learned from Trey (how to relate hodograph shape to actual supercell shape on radar and consequent potential location of hazards).
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He absolutely should be teaching college level atmospheric science/meteorology courses. His ability to take complicated mesoscale and synoptic concepts and break them down into super simple pieces for the hobbyist or even the complete weather newbie is unmatched I have found.
 
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