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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

UncleJuJu98 said:
Hold on lol I thought the soso bassfield was 195. Lol my memory must be wack. I swear it was 195mph.
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I don't think any tornadoes have ever been rated 195mph. Usually 190mph or 200mph is the upper bound they will go for EF4. Bassfield probably contained EF5 winds but think there have definitely been stronger candidates for an EF5 ratin since 2013 - yet that is for the Tornado ratings debate thread lol!
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I think moving forward though, we are liable to see such a robust setup possibly rivaling easter 2020. Which I still cant believe the soso bassfield tornado was not rated Ef5. It's been the closest ever since the Moore Ef5.

Soso/bassfield is easily one of the most memorable tornadoes in recent memory a 2 mile wide monster.
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Eh, it had EF5 potential but it was entirely in the tree damage. The structure it did hit would have likely been EF4 even without the truck hitting it.

For "closest to Moore '13", you look at Mayfield. That should have been EF5 at several points.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
Eh, it had EF5 potential but it was entirely in the tree damage. The structure it did hit would have likely been EF4 even without the truck hitting it.

For "closest to Moore '13", you look at Mayfield. That should have been EF5 at several points.
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Don't know how I forgot Mayfield my goodness. Face palm.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm trying to understand what characterizes a big event to him than us that live here in it just so I can understand where he's coming from; a lot of times conflicts are just misunderstandings, I think he's looking at the grand scheme of the entire event and not the singular area storm.
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@UncleJuJu98 My definition of a “significant” outbreak is one that meets the following conditions:
  • A supercell that produces two or more EF2+ tornadoes
  • A second supercell that produces two or more EF2+ tornadoes
So two supercells that each produce two or more EF2+ tornadoes...

There have been a number of events within the past few years that met these criteria.

Back OT: I think that this upcoming event will produce one EF2+ tornado family, but fall just short of the “significant” criterion outlined above.
 
FXUS64 KHUN 262045
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
245 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Edited:

Due to intense wind fields throughout the
troposphere, this system will have to be watched closely for a high-
impact damaging wind event. There will also be a risk for supercells
and tornadoes, both in the vicinity of the retreating warm front and
in the open warm sector ahead of the QLCS. Given the northward shift
in the track of the surface low, and northward expansion of the warm
sector into our region, it can safely be stated that our concern has
shifted away from heavy rainfall and more toward severe
thunderstorms. The good news it that precipitation associated with
this dynamic storm system will be departing the region fairly
quickly Friday morning, with cooler/drier conditions expected next
weekend.
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Tuesday night through next weekend:

The beginning portion of the period will remain quiet as moisture
begins to filter back into the region. Conditions will remain balmy
with temperatures expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across
the CWA through Wednesday. Models are coming into better agreement
that a trough will begin to dig around the Four Corners region into
Wednesday night before closing off and ejecting around the North
Central Texas area Thursday into Friday. This will create a severe
thunderstorm threat across our region as a broad corridor of
moderate instability will likely exist mainly across our western
portions of the area. Guidance shows SFC CAPE values around 900-1500
J/kg possible for most of the area with locally higher amounts of
SFC CAPE values of 2000 J/kg also possible. This coupled with deep
layer shear that will likely be perpendicular to the front will
allow for discrete supercell development hence the Day 5 Enhanced
Risk issued by SPC. The threats that are possible include tornadoes
(some potentially strong), damaging winds, and large hail. A strong
wind threat will also exist prior to and after the passage of the
front. This system has the resemblance of synoptic setups of higher-
end events for the region, therefore it will be imperative to check
back for future updates.
 
Timhsv said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Tuesday night through next weekend:

The beginning portion of the period will remain quiet as moisture
begins to filter back into the region. Conditions will remain balmy
with temperatures expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across
the CWA through Wednesday. Models are coming into better agreement
that a trough will begin to dig around the Four Corners region into
Wednesday night before closing off and ejecting around the North
Central Texas area Thursday into Friday. This will create a severe
thunderstorm threat across our region as a broad corridor of
moderate instability will likely exist mainly across our western
portions of the area. Guidance shows SFC CAPE values around 900-1500
J/kg possible for most of the area with locally higher amounts of
SFC CAPE values of 2000 J/kg also possible. This coupled with deep
layer shear that will likely be perpendicular to the front will
allow for discrete supercell development hence the Day 5 Enhanced
Risk issued by SPC. The threats that are possible include tornadoes
(some potentially strong), damaging winds, and large hail. A strong
wind threat will also exist prior to and after the passage of the
front. This system has the resemblance of synoptic setups of higher-
end events for the region, therefore it will be imperative to check
back for future updates.
Click to expand...
SMH…
 
Timhsv said:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
243 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Tuesday night through next weekend:

The beginning portion of the period will remain quiet as moisture
begins to filter back into the region. Conditions will remain balmy
with temperatures expected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s across
the CWA through Wednesday. Models are coming into better agreement
that a trough will begin to dig around the Four Corners region into
Wednesday night before closing off and ejecting around the North
Central Texas area Thursday into Friday. This will create a severe
thunderstorm threat across our region as a broad corridor of
moderate instability will likely exist mainly across our western
portions of the area. Guidance shows SFC CAPE values around 900-1500
J/kg possible for most of the area with locally higher amounts of
SFC CAPE values of 2000 J/kg also possible. This coupled with deep
layer shear that will likely be perpendicular to the front will
allow for discrete supercell development hence the Day 5 Enhanced
Risk issued by SPC. The threats that are possible include tornadoes
(some potentially strong), damaging winds, and large hail. A strong
wind threat will also exist prior to and after the passage of the
front. This system has the resemblance of synoptic setups of higher-
end events for the region, therefore it will be imperative to check
back for future updates.
Click to expand...
Wow that's impressive wording. Resemblance of high end events for the region good gosh. That's about as dangerous of wording you'll get from the national weather service office on a events 5 days out. This setup ain't no joke.
 
KevinH said:
Have they used wording like that in the last few months?
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Of course not, none of those setups even remotely hold a candle to this setups high end synoptics. Atleast since the start of January till now. Only event that was significant was the long track tornado event in Alabama but you were relying on mesoscale details to make that event. This event synoptically has a ton going for it, you set the stage for very dangrous event when the synoptic scale has high end potential.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Of course not, none of those setups even remotely hold a candle to this setups high end synoptics. Atleast since the start of January till now. Only event that was significant was the long track tornado event in Alabama but you were relying on mesoscale details to make that event. This event synoptically has a ton going for it, you set the stage for very dangrous event when the synoptic scale has high end potential.
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*sigh*
I don’t want things to shift east. I’m not ready. Hopefully everyone stays SAFE.
 
KevinH said:
*sigh*
I don’t want things to shift east. I’m not ready. Hopefully everyone stays SAFE.
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Likely everybody from east Texas to North Carolina will see severe weather lol, nothing's shifting east man, similar in scope to easter 2020... Not sure wether it'll hold its glass up to that event; time will tell I really forgot how historic that event was so I'm not gunna say this event could surpass that one or meet it. I was questioning it earlier if it could beat out easter 2020 but who knows I shouldnt compare to any event because each event is unique in its own way..

This event could be a major severe event that only happens at night for a majority of the deep south, hopefully it doesn't but it's not out of the real of possibility.
 
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