In the words of the great JR Jim Ross....Business is about to pick up...
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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
Brice
Member
Great! Thanks for that, love to learn!
Casuarina Head
Member
@UncleJuJu98 Not so fast...upon closer examination the GFS’s forecast soundings do not show much directional shear over most of the best thermodynamics between 00Z–06Z on Friday, especially below 700 mb. There is a good EML in place, but the LLJ is relatively weak until after sunset, and by then most of the ongoing convection is situated along the cold front. The most pronounced falls in height largely lag behind the prefrontal warm sector and the timing of the ML negative tilt does not bode well for widespread discrete development. If the trough were faster and negatively tilted earlier there would be a genuine potential for multiple EF2+ tornado families, but ad verbatim the recent GFS runs do not look as impressive as advertised tornado-wise. I still think that these runs show a severe-wind vs. a significant-tornado threat.
Of course, there's still several days left between now and then, which means a good number more model runs to comb through and pick apart. In fact, although I'm personally not a betting man, if I were, I'd be willing to bet that we'll have to wait for the event to actually start the day of in order to decide what kind of event we'll end up seeing.
- Moderator
- #325
Fred is very busy.
- Moderator
- #326
By the way, please quit focusing so much on "tornado families." The ingredients are apparently going to be there and have been showing for a week for tornado potential. Family or not, it only takes one. Case in point, April 8, 1998. The science is great and necessary but sometimes you need to stop worrying about the technicalities and realize that this weekend someone may lose their home, their spouse, their parent or their child. THAT is what is important in the grand scheme of things. Not whether or not an event fits in the nice little box it's supposed to.
Tomcats Forever!
Member
That's an attention getter...
I think what he means when he characterizes a significant tornado family he means a parent supercell that goes on to produce off and on significant tornadoes, when he says potentially multiple significant tornado families that means multiple damaging significant parent supercells. But yes it does just take one. I'm trying to understand what characterizes a big event to him than us that live here in it just so I can understand where he's coming from; a lot of times conflicts are just misunderstandings, I think he's looking at the grand scheme of the entire event and not the singular area storm.
Potential for one significant tornado family is high according to him, which is what happened with the F5 in oak Grove and that storm on April 8, 1998.
Many of our tornado outbreaks in the south are from singular significant tornado families with one parents cell and accompanying spin ups and short lived weaker storms. The January outbreak we had with the Selma tornado was characterized by one significant tornado family.
Just trying to help nobody have there toes stepped on, I think there is a misunderstanding when he talks about tornadoes to when we talk about them lol.
- Moderator
- #329
I still stand by my statement. Sorry mods, not trying to derail the thread.
Alrighty, just trying to help mend any misunderstandings if there is any; sometimes it can be a issue.
I think moving forward though, we are liable to see such a robust setup possibly rivaling easter 2020. Which I still cant believe the soso bassfield tornado was not rated Ef5. It's been the closest ever since the Moore Ef5.
Soso/bassfield is easily one of the most memorable tornadoes in recent memory a 2 mile wide monster.
Soso/bassfield is easily one of the most memorable tornadoes in recent memory a 2 mile wide monster.
18z GFS came in slower than the 12z and dug the trough a bit more. Trying to make this a solely night time event lol
- Thread starter
- #333
KevinH
Member
And now I have to go look that event up….
Clancy
Member
Third largest tornado outbreak in the states on record.
2020 Easter tornado outbreak - Wikipedia
Third largest tornado outbreak in the states on record.
2020 Easter tornado outbreak - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Lol I'll probably regret saying it, but oh well I think it surpasses the March 2021 events in potential, wether it executes who knows.
Timing may potentially mess up the execution.
- Thread starter
- #336
KevinH
Member
Thank you…Third largest tornado outbreak in the states on record.
2020 Easter tornado outbreak - Wikipedia
I DID notice the risk areas are similar to this weeks set up. Here is the meteorological synopsis (and summary) for the 2020 Easter Outbreak. I wonder how it differs (if any) to how things look for this weekend?????
………DISCUSS lol
Meteorological synopsis
Satellite image of the extratropical cyclone responsible for the outbreak across the Southeastern United States at 21:56 UTC on April 12
Background
For weeks throughout March and into April, an expansive area of high pressure built across the Southeast United States, contributing to abnormally warm temperatures across much of the country. The United States as a whole experienced its seventeenth warmest March, continuing the pattern that persisted throughout winter. In particular, many locations along the U.S. and Mexican Gulf coasts saw record warmest temperatures for the month. Calm weather associated with the high-pressure area induced rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico waters to their highest values in the modern record—greater than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above the 1971–2010 average—as well as a moistening of the air near the surface. Increased instability associated with anomalously warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico has been associated with an increased risk of severe weather and tornado activity.Summary
Throughout the two-day outbreak, a total of 141 tornadoes touched down across 10 states, inflicting widespread and locally catastrophic damage. The outbreak currently ranks 3rd for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period with 132 of them occurring between 14:40 UTC April 12–13, only being beat by the 1974 Super Outbreak with 148, and the 2011 Super Outbreak with 219. The strongest tornado was rated high-end EF4 and occurred in Southern Mississippi, producing estimated winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), reaching a width of 2.25 mi (3.62 km), and causing eight deaths. With a total of 32 tornado-related fatalities, it was the deadliest tornado outbreak since April 27–30, 2014. To assist with recovery efforts, governors of five states declared a state of emergency. Relief efforts were complicated by social distancing requirements amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Hold on lol I thought the soso bassfield was 195. Lol my memory must be wack. I swear it was 195mph.Thank you…
I DID notice the risk areas are similar to this weeks set up. Here is the meteorological synopsis (and summary) for the 2020 Easter Outbreak. I wonder how it differs (if any) to how things look for this weekend?????
………DISCUSS lol
Meteorological synopsis
Satellite image of the extratropical cyclone responsible for the outbreak across the Southeastern United States at 21:56 UTC on April 12
Background
For weeks throughout March and into April, an expansive area of high pressure built across the Southeast United States, contributing to abnormally warm temperatures across much of the country. The United States as a whole experienced its seventeenth warmest March, continuing the pattern that persisted throughout winter. In particular, many locations along the U.S. and Mexican Gulf coasts saw record warmest temperatures for the month. Calm weather associated with the high-pressure area induced rapid warming of the Gulf of Mexico waters to their highest values in the modern record—greater than 2 °C (3.6 °F) above the 1971–2010 average—as well as a moistening of the air near the surface. Increased instability associated with anomalously warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico has been associated with an increased risk of severe weather and tornado activity.
Summary
Throughout the two-day outbreak, a total of 141 tornadoes touched down across 10 states, inflicting widespread and locally catastrophic damage. The outbreak currently ranks 3rd for most tornadoes in a 24-hour period with 132 of them occurring between 14:40 UTC April 12–13, only being beat by the 1974 Super Outbreak with 148, and the 2011 Super Outbreak with 219. The strongest tornado was rated high-end EF4 and occurred in Southern Mississippi, producing estimated winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), reaching a width of 2.25 mi (3.62 km), and causing eight deaths. With a total of 32 tornado-related fatalities, it was the deadliest tornado outbreak since April 27–30, 2014. To assist with recovery efforts, governors of five states declared a state of emergency. Relief efforts were complicated by social distancing requirements amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Clancy
Member
- Thread starter
- #339
KevinH
Member
One thing I'm very mixed on is to whether this event coming through daytime or nighttime will have any significant reduction in the magnitude of the tornado event if it becomes a tornado outbreak. Sure you'll have less instability but I'm not sure some of the other extreme factors won't leave you with some really good instability to work with if things line up.
