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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

JPWX said:
12z Euro is on the same page as the GFS though not as robust with the 500mb jet. Still though, a significant to major tornado outbreak is on the table for Thursday/Friday.
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So far I see that most people here are focussing on the GFS vs. the ECMWF. This seemingly implies that the ECMWF shows a less-impressive UL configuration.

Until and if the ECMWF “caves” to the GFS within a few days of the event, at this point I’m regarding the extreme GFS solutions as more fantasy than reality.

Note: a single PDS sounding does not necessarily say much about the synoptic-scale background on the ECMWF.
 
Casuarina Head said:
So far I see that most people here are focussing on the GFS vs. the ECMWF. This seemingly implies that the ECMWF shows a less-impressive UL configuration.

Until and if the ECMWF “caves” to the GFS within a few days of the event, at this point I’m regarding the extreme GFS solutions as more fantasy than reality.

Note: a single PDS sounding does not necessarily say much about the synoptic-scale background on the ECMWF.
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Here's the 12z not sure if it's as bad but looks pretty darn similar. ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_40.pngecmwf_z500aNorm_us_41.png
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Here's the 12z not sure if it's as bad but looks pretty darn similar. View attachment 18220View attachment 18221
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Okay, now that kind of setup, especially with its low-amplitude background, would signal not just a significant tornado outbreak, but also something that, with sufficient instability, could conceivably prove historic for early March, or at least fairly respectable vs. historical high-end tornado outbreaks during the same timeframe. Again, however, I am still skeptical about the amplitude and configuration, especially five days out. There have been some notable low-amplitude setups in recent years, but they have become less common than previously, and several modelled events as such have “Atmospheric Anti-Climax” in the short range. The ECMWF’s big shift toward the GFS is potentially significant, but only if sustained within a few days of the event itself. What stands out on the last few runs is the trend toward a deeper trough over the Rockies, which would tend to lower heights off to the east, yielding a potentially broader-based, negatively-tilted solution. If the setup still looks like this within forty-eight hours of the event, then I’ll certainly be willing to call for a significant, if not potentially historic, tornado outbreak. At this point a major wind-driven event almost looks like a given, but I don’t think we should issue a call on EF2+ tornado families until very near the event. Until then I’ll stay on the skeptical, cautious side in regard to multiple (two or more) EF2+ tornado families.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
Excruciating!

View attachment 18222

View attachment 18224
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No Way Meme GIF
 
This event coming late week already has me glued to attention to the wx forums, models and SPC. The possibility of a significant winter event is rapidly becoming far less likely for KY/TN /WVa/DC MD and VA. The severe weather aspects of the late week event seem to be growing in overall scope and danger, even for some of the above mentioned areas. The event this evening in Oklahoma has today's interest of a chunk of the social media and major weather personalities we hope to comment on the Thursday-Saturday morning event, but rest assured they are aware. I agree with Austin Dawg's earlier post, that at some point with all these chances the dice will come up with snake eyes. Just hope this isn't the event.
 
We've hit the @Casuarina Head red flag mark, so we know we are in potentially deep doo doo with this event lol. When somebody that usually plays devil's advocate to our more optimistic looks on severe events, says this is a dangerous looking event probably should get your attention some.

@Casuarina Head lol all love to ya, good to have somebody to level the playing field. And hamper hyperbole
 
Brice said:
Last time I’ve gotten butterflies from severe weather was 5/20, and well…. They’re back, based on what these models are saying, what are similarities and differences from this setup, to Easter 2020?
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Two differences a much deeper surface low and upper level low, surface pressure is atleast 15-20mb deeper. And a more well defined EML with this forecasted event compared to easter. Not sure at some of the similarities.
 
@Brice
Sounding from easter 2020 over south/south central Mississippi ahead of tornado family that produced the historic soso/bassfield tornado. As a comparison 041220pib22rapf01_cod_anno.jpg

Sounding around west central missippi from the GFS (yes this sounding is elevated) For the upcoming event just for comparison. Seems to be a better EML forecasted that the Easter 2020 event. 2023022612_GFS_111_33.1-90.67_severe_ml.png
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Two differences a much deeper surface low and upper level low, surface pressure is atleast 15-20mb deeper. And a more well defined EML with this forecasted event compared to easter. Not sure at some of the similarities.
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That would likely produce more tornado families due to the height falls
 
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