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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

12z GFS:

153kt 500mb jet.

Near 90kt bulk shear.

850mb winds near 75kt.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Sure anxious see the 12z euro … waiting anxiously
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I am more than a little suspicious about the fact that the orientation of the trough on the GFS is completely different vs. that on the latest operational ECMWF. The EC’s look is notably less favourable for significant tornadoes than that of the GFS. Again: if we were within a few days of this event and the ECMWF were also showing a GFS-like UL setup, then I would be quite concerned about EF2+ tornado families, in addition to severe wind. Until that verifies, I’m just concerned about major wind-related impacts.
 
Important to remember that QLCS is kind of the default mode for severe in strongly dynamic setups across the southeast, supercell tornado threat requires subtleties that don't become apparent until a bit closer in. The broad warm sector present definitely puts an environment for supercells into place but getting a warm sector to evolve correctly is often a complicated thing. Easter 2020 for instance had an almost entirely QLCS/embedded supercell mode aside from those two south MS monsters, and yet with numerous strong tornadoes in the mixed mode it was still a huge event. Potential is certainly on the table for strong supercell tornadoes given parameters but mesoscale and shorter term factors will be important while damaging wind/QLCS tornado whack a mole is pretty much a lock at this point lol
 
Equus said:
Important to remember that QLCS is kind of the default mode for severe in strongly dynamic setups across the southeast, supercell tornado threat requires subtleties that don't become apparent until a bit closer in. The broad warm sector present definitely puts an environment for supercells into place but getting a warm sector to evolve correctly is often a complicated thing. Easter 2020 for instance had an almost entirely QLCS/embedded supercell mode aside from those two south MS monsters, and yet with numerous strong tornadoes in the mixed mode it was still a huge event. Potential is certainly on the table for strong supercell tornadoes given parameters but mesoscale and shorter term factors will be important while damaging wind/QLCS tornado whack a mole is pretty much a lock at this point lol
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Very good post, most of the souths tornado outbreaks are from the broken QCLS line events very rarely is it ever individual cells. More so a broken linear with cells ahead sometimes.
 
ecmwf_full_2023022612_105_33.6--92.0.png

From the 12z Euro. This is the first sounding I picked - crazy!
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Very good post, most of the souths tornado outbreaks are from the broken QCLS line events very rarely is it ever individual cells. More so a broken linear with cells ahead sometimes.
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Easter 2020 was actually more than a bit of an anomaly in that it produced a large number of QLCS-driven EF3+ tornadoes, including some families, especially in SC. Most QLCS-dominant outbreaks don’t even come close to that level of severity. In general discrete cells tend to produce most of the significant outbreaks with multiple EF2+ events, especially once one moves into the intense (EF3+) category. Severe QLCS events can definitely produce intense tornadoes, but usually singly, not multiples and especially not in families.
 
UK_EF4 said:
ecmwf_full_2023022612_105_33.6--92.0.png

From the 12z Euro. This is the first sounding I picked - crazy!
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Why are there missing hash marks with the wind markers changing with height? I noticed this and thought it kind of odd
 
12z Euro is on the same page as the GFS though not as robust with the 500mb jet. Still though, a significant to major tornado outbreak is on the table for Thursday/Friday.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
I really enjoy this forum and as a severe weather lover this is the best place to discuss it…. Really enjoy reading and learning from everyone’s post here… but the lack of post from Fred gossage and Andy is sort concerning …
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There's a major derecho in the plains this afternoon, all the meteorlgists will flock by tommorow lol.

Trust me this event is worth a Fred post or any other meteorlgists lol
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
I really enjoy this forum and as a severe weather lover this is the best place to discuss it…. Really enjoy reading and learning from everyone’s post here… but the lack of post from Fred gossage and Andy is sort concerning …
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I am sure we will hear from @Fred Gossage and @Richardjacks after todays event AND after they have had a chance to look at upcoming data.

Meanwhile…. Me waiting for both of them to chime in:
Michael Jackson Popcorn GIF
 
ColdFront said:
Looks like west of Monticello Arkansas, which is a little south of pine bluff. The soundings have the longitude/latitude coordinates at the top-top left of the skew T. That little tidbit also has the model, run, and time.
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Oh ok cool thanks. I dont think I have had to look up long/lat coordinates. Where can I plug those in and see for future reference?
 
KevinH said:
Oh ok cool thanks. I dont think I have had to look up long/lat coordinates. Where can I plug those in and see for future reference?
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No problem. There are sites that convert for you but just throwing them in google will give you the exact location on a map. Google earth also allows you to search for locations on long and lat.
 
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