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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

JPWX said:
00z NAM has the moisture, wind shear, and CAPE values around just above 900 around noon Thursday across parts of North/Eastern MS. The composite reflectivity around this time though on the 00z NAM shows nothing.
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I have a feeling it'll pick up on it, if the WRF doesn't start to show it when it comes in range then I'll truly doubt any initiation in missippi lol. I don't think the Nam really picks up on some of the minor details that the 3km picks up.
 
KevinH said:
Pardon my ignorance, but what is the diff betw 6km and 3km? What do these images tell us (you lol)
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What you mean in turns of the Nam? Or height in atmosphere? Basically a more detailed nam run if your talking about the 3km nam to the other one. 3km nam allows convection to be modeled as well
 
KevinH said:
Yup, that is typical for my area. We don’t get discrete cells all that often BECAUSE they usually merge into a line by the time they get here.
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Lol I say it's more likely that this is a widespread wind damage event than tornado event tbh, but I'll hold off until about two days out, lack of veering winds close to the surface kills any tornado threat.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Lol I say it's more likely that this is a widespread wind damage event than tornado event tbh, but I'll hold off until about two days out, lack of veering winds close to the surface kills any tornado threat.
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Technically it's veered surface winds that will reduce the tornado threat. You want your surface winds to back (turn more counterclockwise/usually south-southeasterly or southeasterly); while an ideal supercell wind profile should veer with height (turn clockwise/more westerly relative to the winds further down).
 
Morning AFD from FFC. Increasing confidence in severe weather, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes the main concern.
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2023

Starting off Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning, it will be
the last bit of dryness before the strong upper level trough
moves through the area. Like we have been discussing over the past
couple of days, there is increasing confidence that the trough
and associated sfc cold front will rapidly make t`s way across
the state Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. At this time
confidence is also increasing that the ingredients are coming
together for a line of strong to severe storms to be associated
with this sfc cold front. Going a little more in depth on the
ingredients, we are seeing sfc-1 km shear values of 35-50 kts
along with a 850 mb jet of ~50 kts over our area. The 850 mb jet
along with the DCAPE values give a possible indication that we
will be dealing with damaging wind gusts as this line moves
through our area. The CAPE isn`t as impressive at 500-1000 J/kg,
but it does not take that much to spin up tornadoes along the line
especially with the shear we are seeing on model soundings. The
trough is also providing enough vorticity advection to really give
this line a push of energy that will be needed to give us severe
weather. Dewpoints (upper 50s to low 60s) are also expected to be
indicative of the moisture return to the warm sector before this
line passes through during/after peak heating. At this time the
main threats expected are damaging wind gusts that could bring
down trees and powerlines, a few isolated tornadoes embedded
within the line, isolated heavy rain (QPF values of ~1") , and
frequent lightning. This has also prompted SPC to include much of
north and central Georgia in a slight risk for Day 3.
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CheeselandSkies said:
Technically it's veered surface winds that will reduce the tornado threat. You want your surface winds to back (turn more counterclockwise/usually south-southeasterly or southeasterly); while an ideal supercell wind profile should veer with height (turn clockwise/more westerly relative to the winds further down).
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Iol looks like I had my wording opposite of the actual terms , lol the winds this event are more veered than you'd like for tornadoes. I appreciate the correction lol, sometimes my wording and terms are not what I'm trying to get across hahaha
 
ashtonlemleywx said:
Yea I'm sitting out for this event. I may throw the drone up in the air at my house to catch a shelf cloud.....but I'm not storm chasing this one.

Something I'm trying to do a better job at as a chaser is choosing my battles.
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Wait till the WRF comes in range you might change your mind *wink wink* lol.
 
refcmp.us_ov.png

HRRR likes the triple point
 
fv3-hires_ref_frzn_seus_52.pngthis is what would happen if things initiated in Mississippi the FV3 gives you a idea what can go wrong or terms (worst weather). Looks exactly like January 2021 with the segment supercell line that initiated a ef3 in my area
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Technically it's veered surface winds that will reduce the tornado threat. You want your surface winds to back (turn more counterclockwise/usually south-southeasterly or southeasterly); while an ideal supercell wind profile should veer with height (turn clockwise/more westerly relative to the winds further down).
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this is something that's hard to remember. winds veering with height, but you want SFC winds to back which enlarges the hodograph.

to connect the dots for some of you, when we talk about boundaries; boundaries tend to cause both more convergence and SFC winds to back. when SFC winds back, your hodograph enlarges, and your tor chances increase. This is why we're always looking for boundaries when doing mesoanalysis.
 
xJownage said:
this is something that's hard to remember. winds veering with height, but you want SFC winds to back which enlarges the hodograph.

to connect the dots for some of you, when we talk about boundaries; boundaries tend to cause both more convergence and SFC winds to back. when SFC winds back, your hodograph enlarges, and your tor chances increase. This is why we're always looking for boundaries when doing mesoanalysis.
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I always find it easier to look at it, I get things mixed up with all the terms lol. Thought I'd add these photos to help with the explanation. Purple is the veered winds on the sounding coming from southwest if it where southeast it'd be more backedScreenshot_20230110-104958-392.pngScreenshot_20230110-105039-481.png. And the red is the hodo it's larger when you have more speed shear often a sickle is used to describe a good environment because it shows that you have backed winds
 
Long range HRRR has a cute squall line with imbedded low topped supercells moving through central Alabama at noon now.

The end of the 12z wrf is interesting as well.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
I always find it easier to look at it, I get things mixed up with all the terms lol. Thought I'd add these photos to help with the explanation. Purple is the veered winds on the sounding coming from southwest if it where southeast it'd be more backedView attachment 16678View attachment 16679. And the red is the hodo it's larger when you have more speed shear often a sickle is used to describe a good environment because it shows that you have backed winds
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When and where was that sounding taken?
 
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